Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 17, 2020

98L with 70% Chances RED and Ready to Go 97L 50% Does 98L Steal the Laura Name from 97L? Tropical Drama. Also Read Please the Lessons Learned from ISAIAS When People Stayed During Covid Rather Than Evacuating... Will Be a Problem All Hurricane Season Sadly


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As of 2 PM.
98L with 70% chances
RED
97L  is Orange still hanging in there.


Looking at the 2 day visible imagery you can see why.


98L is getting a shape.
You can see where banding would happen.
Large area of moisture.
If it consolidates into one area.
It would be formidable.
but that's down the road.

Note many models take this close to the Islands...
..and the SE coast but much can happen from here to there.


And Dvorak is impressive more so.


Consolidating.
Trying to close off a center.


We can discuss models tomorrow.
www.tropicaltidbits.com has a floater up.
For bother 97L and 98L

And in the world of Hurricane History.
Today is Hurricane Camille Day.



Few hurricanes ever came close to Camille.
The legacy it left was epic.
And the nation was mesmerized.
Television news carried images ...
..and stories.
For years people feared hurricanes ...
...they took them seroiusly.
Everyone remembered Camille.
So should you too.
Especially those living in that neck of the woods.
Where storm surge can travel further than many places.
And the Gulf sites right there quiet and calm.
Until it's disturbed wildly by a Major Hurricane.

It's very possible one of these waves...
...gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
Where the water is hot close in...
... and dangers exist always.

Learn from Camille.
Before Katrina there was Camille.
Before Camille was Betsy.
But there was something about Camille . . .

***

As of 8 AM.
It will be updated at 2 PM.
50% odds for the lead wave.
60% for the wave closer to Africa.
That wave is coming on hot and heavy.
And yes them's fighting words.
PreSeason is pretty much over.
We are moving into Prime Time.
A Season not cancelled!






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When looking at models today with scary scenarios...
...I want you to remember there's nothing organized today.
We are in the realm of models and possibilities.
Tropical Waves off of Africa rolling Westbound.

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In motion you can see the suspect waves.
The trajectory keeps them in play.


Mike at www.spaghettimodels.com shows the models.
Yes the top left one shows Florida in play.
It shows 97L getting into the Gulf of Mexico.
It shows it becoming a hurricane.
Far out modeling before it has formed.
But this is what we do in 2020.
So sharing it.

The ICON Model delivers often.
It's become an interesting model to watch.


It shows 3 lows.
One entering the Yucatan Passage.
One in that favorite spot just NE of the Islands.
And yet another one setting sail West.
This could happen.
But it might not.

Bottom line is I will update in real time later today as the NHC studies the waves, the Invests the satellite loops and models and possibly ups the ante on development later this week. For now it's a matter of what I said in the video above. Watch the waves, the invests and the models and the flow up stream to see where they will go but in the end it comes down to one thing and that is how well devleoped are these waves, do they intensify with a beautiful core vs a blobby mess always trying to get themselves together. The water is warm and receptive, they are nicely spaced apart and that allows each one of them to travel along and breathe so to speak. You know like socially distancing. Everyone trying to stay in their own little space as they move about their lives doing their thing. 

Which is more scary Covid or a Major Hurricane? I bring this up because studies are being done on how the public reacted to Hurricane ISAIAS that was a strong tropical storm forecast to become a hurricane as it approached the Carolinas and that forecast verified. It traveled a long ways from Africa and then mixed it up with an approaching early strong frontal system and though it's winds were not of the Major Hurricane status it delivered major disaster at the beaches where it made landfall as the stormn surge that comes with long tracking hurricanes pushing a dome of water onland did deliver a very strong punch actually picking up homes that have weathered many storms and carrying them further inland. Further up the coast as it was mixing it up with the front the strong winds downed trees and brought damage you would see from a derecheo such as the one that raced through Iowa and Chicago and well you know what happened there. Weather, and tropical weather can bring many complications and often not the one people are expecting.  

But the problem from ISAIAS in North Carolina was it seems many who might have boarded up a bit and traveled inland to a hotel decided to ride out the early season storm in their well weathered homes and that was only because of Corona. Every one when asked cited the fear of traveling, or finding a room somewhere and decided to just ride it out. In ways they were okay because although their homes were not okay most people were okay... it didn't wash everyone and everything off the barrier island. But it was a decision many would now do differently should another storm come that way. Which brings us to the bottom line today as models put out scenarios with two hurricanes moving menacingly towards probable landfalls. What will you do?

1. Would you feel safter in a crowded shelter using masks and hoping for the best?
2. Would you rather drive inland and stay in a hotel somewhere using elevators and risking germs?
3. Would you feel safer in an Air B&B or Bed & Breakfast somewhere rather than big hotel?
4. Would you feel safer in a small two story roadside well kept motel, no elevators?
5. Did Aunt Martha tell you she has her mother staying with her and sorry but can't host ya?
6. Did you buy an RV recently and decided you would just head North on the Turnpike?

You know that saying... any port in a storm? 
Well yeah... that used to be saying.

For some who live along the coast with health concerns, young retirees who retired by the ocean to live out their golden years near the serenity of the sea but aware a hurricane could crash their party suddenly have to wonder since they have a heart problem or breathing problem should they go to the shelter like they usually do? Should they take a hotel room and if so is it better to take a big place or small place or just give up and hunker down and take their chances with the storm?

This is a bottom line for many this 2020 Hurricane Season.

So think on it now, because I can promise you that hurricanes will happen. And, yes they may recurve out to sea or hit a strong pocket of shear near the coast but do you want to bet your lives on that and if you need to evacuate what is the best plan for you.   If you say you will go camping up in the mountains up in North Carolina, good luck socially distancing. At the moment  most everyone I know in Miami this week had kids up in the Carolinas discovering the Smokies.  Make a reservation fast, Southern Floridians are rediscovering the mountain resorts their families had been enjoying for years back when the "mountains" always meant the Applachaians. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Growing up Down South meant our Nothern borders were lined with the Appalachian Mountains and the Outer Banks along the Ocean. Camps were in the Carolinas and local kids usually had a grandma they could go visit to get away from the tropical summers. Funny, now I live up this way and I know it like the back of my hand or a back road as the song goes. This is how we roll ... we board up for hurricanes and we hunker down or we get the hell out of town. And those who chase pick their spot on the beach and head towards that place they know in their heart a hurricane will make landfall. Others, line up at their local beach watching the ocean come alive, the wind picking up small objects along the shore and sea foam fly in the tropical wind mesmerized by it's wild beauty before hunkering down for the trauma of the eye and knowing what the world will look like after the storm will be very different from what they are used to and then they clean up and try putting paradise back together again.  Please read yesterday's blog on Andrew and Camille. Please think seriously now on a plan, because by next weekend someone, somewhere may have hurricane warnings posted for them. These are fast moving systems but at some point even fast moving systems slow down and make that turn more to the North and again it all depends on are they poor messy systems with struggling circulations or strong, well put tother systems with a core pumping air and spinning it's spiral bands like a wrestler liftening weights ready for his date in the ring to make history!




























posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:09 AM

1 Comments:

At 7:58 AM, Anonymous Knitt Cartoon said...

Hello matte nice post

 

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