UPDATED ... 5 PM KYLE Forms. ......................TS Josephine Needs a Real Core. Kyle May Be Spinning Up off the Coast Close In Homegrown.... Captain Climo Where Are You??
For the record KYLE has formed.
From Invest 96L
Josephine still lives but barely.
Keeping this simple.
Kyle is basically a low along a frontal system.
Josephine is barely viable as a Tropical Storm.
Kyle not forecast to be more than a weak storm.
Josephine battles bad reviews on Yelp...
...windshear and is a blob with gusty winds.
While a low is visible on the visible imagery.
You can't even find convection on IR
Do you see Kyle above? No.
Josephine has convection N of it's center.
Josie has similar issues as ISAIAS.
I'm being really honest here I'm done pretending that every storm that was named this year would have been a named storm by other regimes at the NHC who were careful, cautious and almost anal on rules. Rules exist, or let's call them in this case parameters. This is not the Oprah show where everyone gets a prize in the audience for showing up or a soccer team with little kids who all get a prize for participation. This is supposoed to be the National Hurricane Center not the NWS-NHC Miami Division. I've listened to many old timers, some who have worked there over the years, complain and I've said "it is what it is" and "yeah I knew they'd upgrade because this is who they are" and "they don't follow the rules anymore" etc etc and I've had the mind set that it's my job here to convey to you "tropical news" and if it has a name it's game and it's worthy of talking about. I'm not a shrink, I cannot try to explain the various arguments and logic and agendas they have for naming everything this year that spins or shows convection and frankly I don't care I have enough to worry on in the world of Covid and our Cancel Culture where I'm in total denial climinging to the hope the NHC will play football before January. Everyone from Bryan Norcross to "Cranky" has ranted about it in some way and yes we do have satellites with better images and while that is true none have that kind of ability to pretend something is more than a NON TROPICAL LOW ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. Josephine is a weak, barely there Tropical Storm and I'd say knowing some people as I do who worked at the NHC for years ... in the old days it would have gotten Tropical Depression status probably, possibly TS but it's debateable. Kyle...... it's a joke and a waste of a good name and it implies we are going through some crazy busy cycle and actually minimizes the real dangers of what a real named storm is and this is not from a chasing perspective as much as historical accuracy. Kyle is a kumquat and Josephine is a mango and a Dorian was a steak, Irma a beautiful hamburger on the grill in a perfect bun. We aren't even talking apples to oranges.
Ever go to Disney as a child?
Remember when you were too small to go on Space Mountan?
Wasn't it soooo annoying.
Big brother got to go but you had to wait and watch.
You felt so old and big and you were only an inch short.
Parameters. Rules. Requirements.
No one is gonna die if they upgrade a low pressure area attached to a front zooming away towards the North Atlantic hollering to Josephine "follow me" but it degrades the integrity of the process and the validity of comparing this season's bumper crop of storms that sometimes lasted less than a day with storms that were upgraded cautiously after meeting various requirements for consideration to be even upgraded vs a flash of bright convection and noting 50 MPH winds in a band somewhere far from the center and I won't even meniton more than saying last year they upgraded a storm after it made landfall to hurricane status by saying in discussion that recon may have missed a hurricane force wind.
Listen we all have that relative that takes the most amazing photos of sunsets and flowers and sends them to us and when we ask what filter they used they insist they didn't use a filter it looked "just like that" and we nodd and go "okay" knowing they used a filter. When the sunset is purple and gold and they do #nofilter yet everyone else on the beach has the same picture and it's gold with hints of coral but yeah not worth the argument you just think "yeah no filter... " and that's how this year has been. I'm just being honest.
Yes. I did say Kyle might form from a Low coming off of the Carolinas but only because I knew this regime at the NHC would upgrade it and I knew there was no way in the world we were going through August without a wayward, struggling, feisty tropical wave wouldn't get a name and I was right. I'm tired of denying this is an issue. It's not my issue because I'm not the one who works for the government, holding my breath and neither am I some kid out of school hoping to get a job at the NWS so whatever.
That said there are some amazing, awesome forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and some good young ones moving up in that world who are good at what they do. And, there are some kick ass awesome people at the NWS who work hard and love what they do despite nonstop complaints from many about their work. Every job within an organizaiton has a hierachy and rules you go by and you do what you do or you ruffle someone's feathers. I worked in Academia and for the government once it' may sound like an easy job with perks but it's not so easy in other ways.
So......next name up for the record is Laura a busy hurricane in search of ACE and pretty soon we will have strong hurricanes that meet all requirements for hurriane status. Be prepared because it will happen sooner rather than later.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
Ps... no time to proofread so excuse any mistakes and it is what it is...........
1. Videos at the bottom.
2. Info at the top.
3. Have a great weekend while tropics quiet.
Relatively quiet not threatening ...
Enjoy the blog and thanks for reading.
Looking at the wide view.
Josephine is cruising along ...
... it's there but it has a poor core.
Let's leave it at that.
Kyle seems to be forming off the Carolinas.
Now Invest 96L
IF it forms it will be a fast spin up.
Homegrown as I've talked on often.
And as Steve Lyons used to say...
Good day for a cruise in the Caribbean.
I have a lot of thoughts on this odd season with early storms, many that would not have gotten named years back not because we couldn't track them but because they didn't meet the criteria for naming but it's 2020 so anything goes these days at the NHC it seems. As long as the cone is correct and the forecast accurate I really don't care that they have changed parameters for naming systems as I know things change over time. One thing that doesn't change is CLIMO and that's why I call it Captain Climo and it's hard to bet against it. Some years we have slow starts and other years we have fast starts and sometimes Winter comes early and sometimes you burn up from Southern Heat waiting for it to show up. Nothing has been too normal this year. I made a bunch of videos that I put up on Twitter but made them for the blog because really I have nothing much to say.
It's a matter of wait for it...wait for it......wait for it and then suddenly it's raining Canes and Storms and everyone starts screaming "make it stop!!" so let's have a good weekend, live life however you are these days and be careful but enjoy it and have fun because summer is almost over. And, in truth like foootball it really begins in the Fall. I still believe Labor Day will be a bust for someone as a tropical system will show up (would love to be wrong) so enjoy this weekend and just pretend it's Labor Day and stock up for Hurricane Season and get your school supplies and soon we will be seeing Pumpkin Spice Latte things in the store.
As for Invest 96L
Possibly getting the name Kyle
Currently at 50% and going out to sea.
That's an image from www.tropicaltidbits.com
He's got great stuff and we all use him.
So you should donate to him also.
It cost money to run a site so complex and up to date.
Top right of the page
You know I've never asked for nothing.
I write but it does take time.
And when I was working full time it wasn't easy.
But now I'm not and I love writing.
And I love sharing my tropical thoughts.
And made many good friends worth gold over the years.
So back to Josephine....
Josephine recurving or falling apart.
Which ever comes first.
Unless something odd happens.
Keeping this simple today.
As Mike said early on "recurvature"
I do like to wait but pretty obvious.
I mean unless it falls apart and then ...
..well that's not gonna happen.
The Tropical Atlantic isn't a very friendly place now.
Everyone's looking West for the MJO to show up.
Maybe look to the East to wait for Africa to light up.
Hard to squeeze juice out of a dried up orange.
Africa is quiet.
Africa lit up early and taking a break.
Moisture to the East of it though....
So go with the flow.
Enjoy the videos.
I'll update if they name Kyle at the top.
#Josephine needs to see the Wizard. Needs a core. Kyle may be forming off the Carolinas wasting a perfectly good name Upper Level Lows reign over the tropics as our High is either at a spa or gone for counseling. Weird funky vibes. Early winter? MJO on its way to flip the switch pic.twitter.com/aPEKUG6ISf— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 14, 2020
Thoughts on Josephine and Kyle.
Thoughts on the wider tropical world.
It's way wider than Texas and the Islands.
Or just waves coming off of Africa.
Talking fast .. try to keep up & read between the lines. #world #weather & #tropical #weather. What is going on & where’s that MJO or are we just waiting for Captain Climo ?? pic.twitter.com/tNwqGL7iYX— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 14, 2020
Part 2 enjoy this is all true too!
Part 2 of Bobbi’s thoughts on tropics & yes I’m in a good mood oddly. What are we looking at here? Rather than looking West look East. Africa will heat up soon as moisture moves its way towards the ❤️ of Climo. Why I call it Captain Climo ... #tropical #drama #Josephine #kyle pic.twitter.com/X2knIdD5ma— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 14, 2020
And as far as making donations.
Make sure you donate to Mike.
He's educational and entertaining.
He has a great group of followers.
I learn a lot from them...
..who they are...what they worry on.
My goal here is to help the regular people.
Those of us who love weather or were burned by it.
And I try to explain things in an understanable way.
Many can make it sound technical.
I can make it so technical your head would spin?
But it's not who I am.
And I lecture and write on History.
So I do love the Hurricane History side of it...
Buy a Blob shirt ;)
We have had lots of named blobs this year.
That won't last forever but...
...it's fun to have fun sometimes !
I like V Necks personally.
But cute shirt.
He has Louie stuff too..
He has a dog named Louie.
I had a dog name Louie.
Wow history repeats?
Except his Louis is sweet.
Mine was hyperactive.
It hated my boyfriends :(
My best friends hated it :(
My brothers liked it...
Baby brothers.......
My pretensious mother liked having a French Poodle.
So she named it...get ready for it.
"Louie D Debonair Le Petite"
seriously... I take after my father.
Louie sounded like a slugger for the Detroit Tigers.
Not buying a Louie MUG :)
Are you still reading this?
If so thank you.
Tropics get quiet and I go long.
Want a real hurricane to track and watch.
A real gorgeous incredible perfect eye...
An eye going through eye wall replacement.
Spinning far out in the ocean...
I also want winter and snow.
I want a real snow storm!
I love weather.
But REAL weather.
Fair weather to me is boring....
Have a great day and a good weekend.
I'll update at the top.
Shop like we are having hurricanes soon.
And have fun!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps this song is for a few friends.
The picture of the car... old car...stuck there.
Reminds me of a great passage in a novel :)
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:50 AM
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