ISAIAS GONE. CSU Report Out. 24 NAMED STORMS. 12 HURRICANES. 5 MAJORS for 2020 Hurricane Season. Next Name Up is Josephine So Take it Seriously! Power Out Across a Wide Area. Death Toll Stands Currently at 7 From Isaias.
Nothing going on in the tropics today.
But across a large part of Hurricane Country...
...people are cleaning up.
Many are without power.
From North Carolina to Maine.
Rarely is such a wide area impacted...
...within a 24 hours period.
ISAIAS like a meteor speeding along.
One of the messages it was delivering is..
WE'VE ONLY JUST BEGUN.
We are at the beginning of the Hurricane Season.
Not June 1st but when it ramps up.
Long distance models are showing trouble.
Gulf of Mexico trouble ...
...African Waves keep rolling.
August 5th is near the beginning.
It's generally uphill from here.
But who knows what 2020 brings?
Okay Phil knows but more on that later.
It's not that I don't like change, sometimes change is really good. But, as a wise woman once told me, change is never good when it's forced upon you - so that said I really dislike the new Blogger format they are pushing. It's only good for editing purposes and it complicates other things and I wish they wouldn't try to be like Facebook that changes things faster than my children changed their clothes when they first figured out how to change their clothes themselves. I have a daughter who is incredibly smart, artistic, brillant but somewhat out of the box and she'd go in her room and change her clothes and put on a polka dot top and a flowered skirt that did have a similar color scheme but well it really didn't go together. I was probably too busy with the baby to notice to be honest, but I heard my ex-husband say in a gentle questioning tone (but I could hear he was trying to hold in a chuckle) ask her, "do you think that outfit goes together?" I turned and looked at them. She looked down very seriously and studied her outfit and looked back up at him and said with a big smile and shook her head yes vigorously. We looked at eachother, trying not to laugh, and just said smiled and let her do her thing. I mean really it's a form of expression it's not like we were going to a family wedding or something. My thought was this is what happens when you let her watch Punky Brewster all day. She's still a girl that turns my world around.
Yes, I was killing time waiting for the CSU update..
...to come out at at 11 AM.
Phil posted this teaser yesterday.
Okay it's later..........
...I read through fast for what I was looking for.
Going to sip tea and eat a muffin and read for a bit.
Sorry not donuts today. Had one on Monday.
The link to the whole report is above.
A link to a weather glossary is below.
A bit of a back story here is years ago someone who knows sent me a link to a report put out by Dr. William Gray from Colorado State that explained factors about the coming hurricane season. Understand I know weather... I can look at satellite imagery and I can look at the sky and know what is happening but the report is deep in graphs, details and math as meteorology is all about math and I'm more an English and History girl. But I looked through trying to make sense of it all. A few years later I became a reference librarian at the City Library with unlimited access to computers and printers and I printed out the report, took it home and read it slowly using a weather glossary to double check terms I didn't understand even if I was pretty sure what they meant. Words and details matter so I wanted to get it right. Fast forward to years later I got to meet Dr. William Mason Gray and spend time talking with him and listening to him talk to friends I was with and oh my gosh I can't tell you how incredible it was to be able to just stand there and listen to every word and thought this amazing, marvelous man said with passion, emotion and clarity of detail be it about an old friend he called recently to say check on or his random thoughts on ocean currents or meteorology or memories of time spent in Africa doing research. An awesome man. Phil was young then, though somehow he is perennially young. Perhaps it's all those hikes he loves to take into the fresh air and open country when not doing his meteorology job. So now you know a bit more about why I love this report that is updated regularly. Only once did I briefly forget it was coming out but I was out with a good friend for several house absorped in a discussion on weather history and then we remembered and laughed and went to read the report. Warning on the report is that weather changes in real time (why he updates) and know it's DATA is 100% correct, as for predictions to places down to the county level can change over time if and when weather patterns change. They are there as a guide not to be carved into stone but to be used to assess your percentage for dealing directly with a major hurricane. Check Section 3 where he explains about the reliability of forecasts but that said tidbits below, please read the report.
24 NAMED STORMS
12 HURRICANES
5 MAJOR HURRICANES
ANALOG YEARS
1966
1995
2003
2005
2010
2017
Texas has a 47% chance of a HURRICANE and 19% for a MAJOR
LA has a 43% chance of a hurricane and ....... 16% for a Major.
FL has a 68% chance of a hurricane and ....... 31% for a Major.
My thoughts below:
Again weather patterns and ocean temperatures change in real time so this is as of today.
Also what worries me currently is the hot water temperatures from NC to Maine and beyond.
I'm also concerned with low shear across the tropical Atlantic and strong African waves.
Underneath a huge high they go move West and if a front dips down then they lift.....
I've felt from the start that the East Coast would have a Major Hurricane threat.
I do believe Isaias was a rehearsal, a reminder that we have only just begun the season.
We are no where near peak and that means prepare, beware and stay on top of the weather.
Back to CSU Report ...........
State by state: http://hurricanepredictor.com/
County by county using Miami Dade as an example as many in Miami read this blog.
http://hurricanepredictor.com/County.aspx choose your state, then your county.
Nothing out there today. Rumbles of that GOM storm way out time wise....
Again many experts predicted tracks from Carib and across FL into GOM this year.
Though they also predict a GOM threat across FL towards the E Coast.
So keep that in mind and read the report please.
You can follow Phil on Twitter for his sage advice.
@philklotzbach
More tomorrow. Today is a day for me to recoup. I had an inspiring day chasing Isaias in my home town without having to drive to the coast and figure out how to get back if stuck there with a fast moving storm and be close by to blog. But, standing in a field of weeds trying to get a view of the skyline in Raleigh isn't that easy for someone allergic to ragweed and whatever it is here in Raleigh that frustrates my breathing. I'm good with asthma meds and it's not a huge issue and I'm glad I did it because it was a rare experience as usually it's easier to do that when in my other home town in South Florida. I'm telling you ISAIAS was a dress rehearsal, a reminder that we are only just beginning the real height of the Hurricane Season that peaks in September though every year is different of couse but as it's 2020 take it seriously. And, PLEASE read the previous blog I wrote late last night on fast moving, speedy hurricacnes such as ISAIAS, HAZEL and the infamous 1938 Hurricane, but keep in mind as well Gloria and Sandy that like most hurricanes late in the season catch a fast express train by way of hooking up with a frontal boundary and faster than you can ask "is it going to hit us" it's howling at your front door!
AGAIN check out where August 5th is on this graph.
We truly have only just begun the hurricane season.
No more Pre Season. Prime Time.
And prayers for those impacted by now historic ISAIAS and hope if your electric is out and I know many who lost power up north well.......hope and pray it gets turned back on soon! If this isn't an adverstisement or a reason to buy a small, but good generator if you have the money I don't know what is..........
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps ...Do you know your evacuation routes? I bet Jimmy Buffett does.... though he'd rather surf in a hurricane or fly out on his plane I'm guessing.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:15 AM
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