UPDATED 11 AM ... Still A Hurricane. ISAIAS Down Near the Coast of Cuba and Haiti Waiting To Move Up Into the Gulfstream Towards Florida First... Then Where? How Strong? What Can Go Wrong? (It's a rhyme.. )
Discussion is fairly good. Honest.
Read it. Explains the issues going on.
2 Salient points below.
And this part... uncertainties pointed out.
Thoughts for Floridians.
Especially South Florida.
Thoughts for the Carolinas.
Later this afternoon I'll talk models.
And what may happen up at the N part of the Cone.
But much depends on intensity...
...and what it does in the 3 day.
Please keep reading my thoughts from less than an hour ago.
Nothing really has changed.
ISAIAS is flaring up... on it's West side.
Once it lifts off of the N Coast of Cuba.
Less land interaction and warmer water.
Mitigated by shear yes but hot water!
* * *
This is better than the Cone if you ask me.
As when it's in the 3 day here....
...there's usually very little variance.
I want to put these thoughts here yet I do not buy them just yet but I see problems in the forecast. When I say what could go wrong? Bad data into the models is a problem to begin with... Last night they said 60 MPH and hour later Recon found 80 MPH winds (were they really in the center or near the center as in gusts...hate to second guess Recon but similar issues have happened in the past) and then models use 80 MPH and see a stronger hurricane momving fast up into a weakness and an Upper Level Low zooming off to Carolina and the NE. What if it wasn't a 80 MPH Hurricane and the earlier generous 60 MPH was the true speed and the NHC is having problems finding much down there this morning. They have two planes in there and they aren't finding much. It's also further WEST than expected and not just crawling across the Northern Coast of Haiti but taking Irma's Yelp Reviews of the Cuban Coast seriousy and lunging more West towards the North Coast of Cuba. I know the NHC would say that's "short term movement" and maybe that's true but until this gets fully off the coast and we can really see what is going on I still feel the timing is wrong. Something is off. A new model just showed it coming in at South Carolina not North Carolina, another model keeps it West and the beautiful consensus we see currently could be based on a lie as in bad data in you get garbage and good data in you get reliability. We are inside that 3 day window. We need not to get anything wrong and when I say "we" I mean the powers that be not me. NHC makes the Cone. I just offer thoughts and discussion based on knowledge, history and knowing the water vapor loop really well because honestly I was taught the Water Vapor Loop by the best. True Confessions! So let's move on and see what the NHC says at 11 AM.
Models from Spaghetti Models.
A look close up at Hurricane Isaias
You see our hurricane.
A small center. A large envelope.
A trench of dry air.
Yet it keeps moving there.
Crawling a bit now closer to Cuba.
Seen that before haven't we...
And Florida up in the corner to the NW
There's a video on Twitter.
Blogger is being odd this week ...
...while they work out their new version.
Another Tweet link below.
And there is this short term discussion.
Regarding Florida using www.windy.com
It's on Twitter check it out.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Note our 3 main models...
...all get to the same general spot.
Timing is a bit off.
NHC Cone
A cone we are familar with especially in Florida.
Matthew, Dorian. Flody.
Different intensities.
Turning offshore....
... clipping the coast a bit.
Moving on to North Carolina.
Hurricane Center now forecasts 100 MPH.
Cat 2 Strength.
I did say that yesterday didn't I?
We will see soon enough........
...when it lets go of Haiti and Cuba.
And starts swimming in the Gulfstream.
Hot Gulfstream.
Mitigated by shear in theory.
Side note here ... while writing I try not to read on Twitter my friends so I stay focused on my thought. My youngest son who loves to play with models and loops just sent me a video of Hurricane Wilma doing Rapid Intensification with the tag "not related to anything but cool loop" so yeah that just happened. You can Google it. Yes, not related but we are not very good at Intensity forecasting as when the NHC put out a brief, early 11 PM and an hour later it went from 60 MPH to 75 MPH BAMN! So far it's holding down there and in my mind moving a bit slower than previously forecast but time will tell.
This is a good loop to use to watch the storm and it's steering currents always visible on the water vapor loop. https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Variables are strength often.
And they upgrade if something changes.
You can see the frontal system moving....
And Isaias crawling along the coastline.
Almost like a child afraid in a pool...
...to let go and they hang onto the wall.
And they creep around holding on still.
I know you've seen that.
Remember when you were a child or you played with a child coloring and they trace things and then they color them in and then they trace the border of the picture with a black crayon usually to make the picture pop and look finished I suppose. Or maybe they just copy some other kid who is doing it but it's very common and these coastal cruisers or coastal crawlers remind me of a child tracing the coast on a map. Luckily this is not a Categor3 or 4 or more and we have been watching it forever so it's not a surprise at the door that you weren't expecting and you ketp thinking "odd, I don't remember ordering anything from Amazon recently" and I'll add have you ever ordered something and they send you a message it arrived. You look outside and there's nothng there, then you realize they put it by the neighbor's door?
Then there is that package you bought and they told you it would come in 2 days, but nowdays in Coronal Time often you get a note that it's coming, but it will be delivered tomorrow. I know people hate that.... just go to sleep and it will show up tomorrow. But Before Corona we expected tomorrow to mean tomorrow but now tomorrow means maybe the day after tomorrow. My grandchildren say that nowdays "Before Corona" and it can mean anything from "Before Corona when we were in school on the way home from school there was a storm" or "before Corona when we went to Disney" or well you get it. Maybe Corona is trying to teach us patience and in the immediate world we live in where we think we can control everything with the click of the keyboard, hit send and it's delivered tomorrow we felt too in charge. Now we know, we aren't always so in charge. Control is an illusion. It's often a beautiful illusion, but just an illusion.
Enjoy the song and let's see what evolves today to slightly alter what we thought was a given and don't be surprised if something odd happens (as I said late last night a "kink" in the forecast but know that it's there and on it's way.
Again as far as the models go and steering currents... a weaker storm stays further to the West, closer to the coast and a stronger one should ramp up and make a run for it faster. Who really has faith in UPS anymore? Just saying.. Amazon seems to work better usually than other methods.
Music is a memory and it's amazing sometimes because various songs on an albumm get jumbled up in your head sometimes and pieces of one song blend into another. I always think of the song Pieces of You and yet it's not that song but this song I really like........but the other song that is harsh but honest remains in my brain at the same time. This is a song from my childhood or more specifically my teenage years, except really it was my second teenage years ... dreams last so long, even after your gone. What a great song. Must have been meant for me and vice a versa as we all dance online in our virtual world. And in truth models that we chase are often a virtua world of what might be some day and then we wait in real time to see what really is going to happen with the storms of our lives.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/fWdjjftbjpo
Again ........My Bottom Line.
We know the basic track with some variations. We know to expect surprises from Isaias and because it's 2020 afterall and when you grow up in Miami you never trust a forecast til it's past Daytona or Tampa or well on it's way somewhere else. Good advice as we know Hurricanes can happen and they can rapidly intensify or suddenly stall out because the High is stronger and the ULL is whatever so just be like a Miamian and know that in the last 36 hours something often changes.
Kind of looks surrounded doesn't it?
I know what the models show.
But sure looks corralled there.
Oh and we are basically into August so we are busy, prime time. More on those areas later.
This afternoon I'll blog on these areas.
And the expected impacts/landfalls up the coast.
But this morning it's about Florida first.
Besos BobbiStorm
I'll update after new advisories.
Either at the top or a stand alone post.
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:58 AM
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