Updated ! PTC9 Looks Like It Should be ISAIAS. Coming Together. Looking Good. Stay Tuned.

Noon update

The cone is above.

Hasn't changed much from 5 AM.

Intensity, location, movement.

It's moving fast... 

Many quetions in our Tropical Mystery here.

NHC says it has not closed off.

I wouldn't call it an "open wave" either.

It's somewhere in between.

Systems that don't come together early on when expected to often come together later on where people don't want to see them develop. If it was together now on course as the NHC has mostly laid out based on models and forecasting skills it would be near Hispaniola (that could break it up) or near where shear may develop between the Bahamas and Florida and if it keeps going further West and misses those negative aspects it could find itself in an place where the water is warm, the shear is less and the mountains aren't as high. Purely specutlation but systems that play cat and mouse often come back to bite you. So we are gonna watch, I'm going out and I'll update later this afternoon! Stay tuned.

This should get upgraded at 11 AM to Tropical Storm status and we can finally use the ISAIAS name today. If they don't upgrade at 11 AM then I don't know what they are doing down there at the NHC. Being honest. Yes, it was elongated, curved, bent like a pretzel at times the last few days but this morning as the sun rises over the Caribbean there is a developing Tropical Storm.

Facts above for those that want them.

The two important points from this morning's discussion are shown below with my thoughts.

"the forecast track is highly uncertain....

...until a true center forms"

My point is it seems to be forming......

"indicate that a large burst of convection is occuring"

 My point is the burst maintained itself.

So where does this leave us now?

Those are the coordinates above.

Below is where they are on Google Maps.

Every Florida person knows that's a West Coast Sunset.

After Maimi and Hollywood...

..or the Florida Keys.

It does the Tampa area.

Naples maybe?

BUT........weather evolves.

Models change.

NHC does their thing

You do your thing.

If you are inside the shaded area below.

Pay attention.

What it looks like now ....

.... doesn't show what it will look like in 3 days.

And models ignored Hanna for far too long.

My Botton Line Below:

This system looks beautiful, got to be honest, and it appears to be maintaining it's "burst of convection" shoring it up with nice structure, banding forming and moving enmass quickly where it wants to go. Models have been less than stellar this year not locking onto tropical development until after the watches and warnings were up. Why is not important currently, what is important is that with the various ways we have to watch a system we should pay attention to what the NHC says, listen to your local EXPERTS and I say that as every area has experts that know their own area's weather history and are pros at knowing where something is going and while keeping your eye on all the loops and discussion prepare for this hurricane season as you have been doing or should have been doing.

My son who is very good at reading satellite loops vs models made a comment to me last night. Basically he said people should always be prepared and when it comes to being in the Cone people should go about what they are doing and be ready to go into action when you are in the 3 day Cone but being aware that when it comes to Miami the last 24 hours is always the most important. He's right, and if a storm had no other option the way Andrew barreled at Miami you would know that yourself by just looking at the satellite loops and knowing that ridge was carved in stone and Andrew was a done deal for Miami; that said even Andrew dipped just enough to spare downtown Miami and slam into Homestead. Either way you prepare, you take action in the 3 day and then you wait and see what will happen. It's that simple. Old Florida folks know that's the truth because there is so much that can alter a storms course in real time and then the NHC adjusts and the models flip some and the Cone shifts. It is what it is and it is hurricane season and soon we will see hurricanse not elongated blobs as fast as this storm seems to be pulling together.

Ask Mike on Spaghetti Models... he has been watching these systems forever. It may go to Miami, see the Lake and then visit him or the Cone may change but he won't stop watching until it's way gone past his Tanpa area and you should be like Mike. Cautious is good, but never live in denial or a hurricane will bite you where the sun don't shine.

I'll update thoughts after the NHC writes a new discussion at 11 AM and I'm guessing if there are any real changes they will do it at 5 PM but it's been hard to second guess the NHC this year so do what you got to do and listen to your online experts and especially your On AIR meteorologists who know Miami weather and Tampa weather and Charleston weather and you get the idea.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps While you were sleeping last night ISAIAS was working out, getting in shape doing his thing. You do your thing if you are in the Cone and hope the Cone changes.

Irma dipped and Matthew began it's turn