UPDATED. 2 PM INVEST 92 GIVEN 70% RED 2 Day 90% Chances of Forming in 5 Day - The I Storm Seems Ready to Pop and Models Show Landfalls Because 2020

Updated 2 PM

NHC raises it to 70% in 2 days

90% in the 5 day.

This is pretty much a done deal.

Press Releases being written..

And you can see why below.

Small triva comment.

Remnants of Gonzalo flaring up.

Looking perky .... 

just pointing out the obvious....

Why is everyone bugged out about 92L?

Check out those Intensity models on the bottom.

While they all develop it.......

....some develop it towards a Major Hurricane.

Yet between large blobby wave....

...and Major Hurricane there's lots of questions.

And the answers all involve timing.

Because timing is everything.

You have your choice here of 3 possibilities.

You can just listen to my video.

You can also read the words.

You can scroll down and look at the images.

Or you can do all of the above.

Trying to make it easy for everyone.

Turn the sound up & watch the loop & think vs chasing models #92L it’s all about timing. pic.twitter.com/RsoEC8Gn9w

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) July 26, 2020

Models.....
I watch the models, I study the models but I'm not a model hugger. Mind you when we have a verified named storm of say 50 MPH strength and the data from recon has been added into a few model runs I do respect the models enough to give a few kisses. When they send out that beautiful Gulfstream Jet that I've been on and it flies around the whole environment sending back incredible data and we have a Hurricane steadily intensifying then I do tend to fall in love with the models. But until then it's easy come, easy go and you can get dizzy watching that wind shield wiper effect where they flip back and forth and back and forth. And, if you believe in the butterfly theory... all you need is one little itsy bitsy butterfly to flap it's wings in the perfect stop and suddenly it can make a difference and that change can be extrapolated down the tropical road.

So as for Invest 92L with super high chances of development in the 5 day (if they could do 99% they would put it there) and 60% chances over the next 2 days. Don't be surprised if we don't get past the 48 hour mark before they pull the trigger on this one.

It's a big system and as you know big systems take more time to come together and build a core and banding unless of course it's later in the season over high octane fuel water temperatures, but it's July and it's still combatting Saharan Dust and marginal water tempertaures as it sails West beneath the huge high pressure ridge. Not a lot of argument over where it's going over the next day or two, but lots of discussion on different model solutions for down the road.

The issues are as such and remember them before you look at the models.

1. 92L is forecast to be a long tracker it's not a pop up homegrown tropical depression.
2. Timing is everything. And there are layers to that as timing is everything comment.
    a) How fast does it take to actually develop?
    b) How fast is it moving?  Talking foward speed here not wind speed?
    c) How fast does it intensify into a system that builds up into the atmosphere?
   
3. Because how fast it develops and strong it gets dictates the direction, track and intensity.

All models develop it in the short term and yet where it ends up in 3 or 4 days dictates where it may or may not go down the road. If it develops stronger and feels the need to take on the High Pressure anywhere that it sense a weakness it pulls North faster and tries to make it up over the Islands without too much destruction to it's core. The most dangerous of African born Hurricanes are the ones that go up and over the Islands,  thereby avoiding any impact to it's core strength. That up and over the Islands scenario again depends on the strength and location of the High and if a Low develops across the SE near the Carolinas as Lows love to go find other Lows and avoid the High. Yes, I know this is pretty basic. Does it hit that window of opportunity to pull North at the right time or does it dawdle, stay low and develop slower and then it slides through the Islands vs aiming for higher latittudes and the ever popular Outer Banks interaction?  Does it go up and over the Islands and then the high builds in stronger and shoves it more to the West and make everyone in Florida go stark raving crazy? It's a short jump really trust me as a Miami girl living in North Carolina I can tell you Miami people panic way faster than they do up this way. Then again further to the South it's more likely to have a direct impact from a Cat 4 or Cat 5 Hurricane in Miami than it is in Avalon, North Carolina.

This is not a Cat 3 or 4 or more but when people see a well developed, large Tropical Wave that is an Invest with models spitting out disasterous possibilities everyone sees the worst hurricane they can remember that came to their town and rearranged their lives. It's just human nature to expect the worst or ignore it until there's nothing left at the store because you couldn't believe it would really happen. It's as if there is no in between.

Today's blog is long on words and short on images. Words matter and understanding how these storms work is more imporant thatn showing a model that may flip flop in 2 hours after posting this blog.

Basically the GFS takes it up and over, often missing or clipping the Islands, aiming it on various runs at Florida, Bahamas, Carolinas and even NYC and even Boston I believe on one run. Yes, a coastal cruiser, a teaser that tantalizes everyone with the word LANDFALL than curves gracefully away after everyone is exhausted from watching it and then where does the next storm go? Because honey, darling, everyone "you guys" (my father hated when I used to say that)... to anyone and everyone reading this it's that kind of Hurricane Season. Busy and busting out all over with tropical possibilities as well as having small homegrown systems pop up suddenly.

The EURO decides it doesn't want to isolate and has no interest in socially distancing and approaches the Islands and I mean all of the islands, not only taking on Hispanoila but going for the gold in Cuba. If anything is left it's a problem for the Gulf of Mexico or it could cough it's way off of Cuba and become a Florida issue such as say Cleo.

But the storm I want to remind you about is Georges and the reason is because while every weather person alive likes to remind people Hispaniola kills Hurricanes that's not always true. It often delays the end game. Jeanne is an example and Jeanne took her time before doing Florida, which was polite as we were still cleaning up from Frances. Georges as a strong storm, not a developing tropical mess, impacted every piece of real estate it could and kept going sturbbornly, reviving itself fast over the warm waters of the Florida Straits before punching Key West in the gut. So no not all hurricanes die because they hit the high mountains of Haiti; yes they should all die down there but they don't always die and that's the ugly truth you need to remember.

I refer everyone to this incredible site that shows what happens when PR, Hispaniola and Cuba do not stop a Hurricane from banging up a place like Key West so bad it took years not months for some people to finish repairs and get back to whatever normal was and so remember that please.

https://www.extremestorms.com/hurricane-georges.htm

As for images here we go... the names of the models are not as important as the point I'm making that they disagree where it is and again that goes back to timing and intensity. Intensity and timing are intricately linked and Intensify forecasting is the Holy Grail of Tropical Meteorology still.

So now let's look at images and models.

Euro 850 Vorticity version.

Takes on the Islands on THIS run.

..and then wobbles across Cuba 

This model below went up and over the Islands.

Big storm. Then what?

Depends on the High Pressure above.

Landfall or recurves away?

Well doesn't that look terrible......

... many model runs before it nears the Islands.

So always take it with a lot of salt...

..and wait for the next model run.

The set below is the Euro and the GFS.

Same timing.

Euro stops to vacation and see the Islands.

GFS is self isolating and not taking that trip.

The GFS stays strong.

The EURO partied too hard in the Islands.

What's wonderful about www.windy.com is that you can run a model and then hit the other model and doing this back and forth nonstop shows you how different the track is and why.

Oh and regarding a weak Category 1 hurricane vs a Major Hurricane, they all do damge of some kind.

The Bob Hall Pier can tell you what an intensifying strong Category 1 Hurricane can do to an pier that zig zags out there into the water when a hurricane takes direct aim at it with a pounding surf that usually does more damage than the winds. Okay, wind whipped rain but never underestimate the power of water to rearrange everything.

That's it. I decided to write long on Sunday because we are in the contemplation state of watching a large wave with great reviews on Yelp but often you go somewhere that everyone thought was great and you didn't think it was so great. But, it has potential and we need to watch it. Whether you live along the Gulf of Mexico, Florida or up towards the Carolinas and Virginia ... we all need to watch what happens with it and at some point the Cone will be drawn that defines where the real concerns lie and who needs to prepare and begin putting into action the plan that I'm hoping you are all working on now while it's relatively quiet... as we wait for the I storm to form.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever I'm doing on any given day and of course weather.

Ps... I'm going to try and keep to this format of video at the top, words next and yes sometimes I go long because I love to write and words matter and then images because we all love pictures and models. Have an awesome weekend, while out there today you may want to start getting that Hurricane Plan Kit together as fast as you can... the J storm will form down the tropical road too as we zoom, zoom, zoom through the Alphabet for the 2020 Hurricane Season.