Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, July 24, 2020

Hanna and Gonzalo Present Different Questions. The Problem with GOM Tropical Storms & The Issues with Small Tropical Storms.The I Storm With the Name Few Can Pronounce May Be Out By Africa

2 PM.

Brief update.



Salient Discussion.


Meanwhile Gonzalo got his wings taken away.
NHC back tracked on the Hurricane Status.
Would be funny if Hanna steals the honor of the 1st Cane.



Keep watching.
Later today I'll talk models.
Dealing with allergies and issues and yet life goes on.
The wave train is rolling.

* * * 




9:30 AM.
Check back later this afternoon for updates.

Putting video at the top for those who like videos.


And regarding the storm of the hour.


Going to keep this simple this morning.
Staying Old School.
Coordinates. Cones.
Some video with my thoughts at top.
Lots of words for those who enjoy reading below.

This morning things are Status Quo.
Woke up at 5 AM checked the advisory.
Pretty much no change.
Went back to sleep.
Today things may begin to change.
 Words and numbers matter.
Hanna is only moving 9 MPH.
Not super slow but not fast.
That's a lot of time over very warm water.
And there is low shear.
And Hanna is not TD8 from yesterday.
Slowly, steady building a circulation.
That means it could intensify.
Hanna may surprise us.
Also it's still developing a center...
GOM storms are infamous for this.
GOM storms always bear watching as I explain later.




NHC has it at 65 MPH at landfall.
I would not rule out Hurricane.

The problem with GOM Tropical Storms is even as Tropical Storms they can cause much havoc when they are large, wet and slow moving. And, no this is NOT Harvey but any number of storms have ramped up upon arrival and when people were expecting a weak Tropical Storm then ended up with a Hurricane or a deluge of heavy rain causing flooding in low lying areas; they tend to surprise. An old director at the NHC in a long, slow conversation with me while we were waiting for an event to begin really drove home this point on the dangers of underestimating Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storms. After living and working in Houston, before going to Miami to lead the NHC, he was in the best position to appreciate the concern and need for early warning and not underestimatng them. Mind you I am a "Miami girl" so growing up I paid little attention to them as they were usually the ones that got away and took their trouble somewhere else. Now I have a different view of the world as I am no longer in Miami and I've lived in many places. In NC I'm watching that new wave personally. There is something about the Gulf of Mexico that can put a shot of espresso into what looks like a Decaffeinated Brew and make you feel as if it had a shot of Tequilla in it. So watch Hanna to change up the situation later today and tonight. 

As for Gonzo,
Gonzalo.
Small, still there doing his thing.


The high pressure to his North. (Dark colors)
Just keeps him low and moving to the West.
This has so far been the steadiest storm around.
Kind of like the tortoise and the hare story.
Big waves race out and fall apart.
Yet little storms slide under the high ....
...somehow they elude the dust and make a run for it.
Gonzo is making a run for landfall.
The NHC still has him at hurricane strength then.



Remember I said numbers matter?
Gonzo is only 1 mb lower than Hanna.
Yet they have Gonzo at 60 MPH.
And Hanna at 40 MPH.
Think about it.
Don't think too hard.
2020 is a brain buster ya know.

So the real question is does Gonzo have any surprises for us or does he just keep going until he falls apart and why would he fall apart down the road vs now when the vacuum cleaner known as SAL has dried to suck him dry yet hasn't suceeded yet? So many questions and odd model runs for what has been a basically, steady, boring, stubborn storm set on it's track ignoring all obstacles. Tropical Meteorology is so fascinating.

This area to the NW of Gonzalo bugs me.
I knew what it was vaguely but still...
...bugs me for different reasons.
Good explanation given me last night.
Brian McNoldy is smart and classy.
A good meteorologist and a good man.
Learned much reading his Tweets over time.


It would be easy to count Gonzalo out.
Yet some systems manage in poor conditions.
Florence managed that trek across the Atlantic..
...with dry air, dust and negative conditions.
Horrible reviews online too.
Yet Florence just kept going.
Florence was big.
Gonzalo is small.

Last thought today on Gonzalo is that small storms can ramp up very fast and fall apart fast and then come back just as fast and that is indeed what Gonzalo has done the whole way from Africa. Watches and warnings are up for the Islands. This could provide localized problems to homes, farms, roads and places in it's path. The NHC has been very good and cautious with Gonzalo and unless there is a surprise down the road and it doesn't unravel in the Caribbean... the short term track seems set in stone. As best as any track for any system in the tropics can be set in stone.

So many models....
Here's one. 
What happens with Gonzalo down the road?
Where and when does it's road end?


For now focus on landfall in the Islands.

The huge wave off of Africa is forecast by many models to be a big player down the line. Many models show it getting to our part of the world. You may see models with it hovering off the SE Coast way down the road, take them with your favorite type of Sea Salt and rely on models after it forms and gets the name that all of us are trying to learn how to say because if models are correct we will be dealing with the I storm soon enough and for a long time. I promise I will show models this afternoon late in the day. There are just too many models being tossed around online and yes we love to shoot the tropical breeze and watch models that are ten days out down the road, but talk is cheap and what it actually does is the question that is unanswered as it hasn't formed yet. And until you have a verified center models are a dime a dozen and rarely reliable. 

If you're still here reading.
Thanks. You have patience :)
This is my bottom line.



We have only just begun.
And no I am not playing that song.
I'll update this afternoon.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Twitter for mostly weather.
Instagram often whatever.





posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:50 AM

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home