11 PM UPDATE.......Officially Tropical Storm Hanna & Gonzalo Short Term Goals and Long Term Goals For Both These Tropical Systems.
11 PM.
Well that about sealed the deal.
Recon found enough data for an Upgrade.
That and satellite imagery and various other ways.
NHC made the call as we knew they would.
Gotta tell you Hanna is beautiful.
Taking up a large part of the GOM.
Cloud cover wise.
Banding and a beautiful spin
As for Gonzalo....
He hung in there and rebuilt a bit.
Worked out, rested, worked out.
60 MPH Tropical Storm.
 |
| Add caption Caption........ Gonzalo is small but a fighter! Never underestimate a fighter.... I promise I'll talk on models Friday. Models for the new Wave. Some of the models went bonkers. Huge storm, close to our coast. Others less excited about it. Defiitely bears watching. Sweet Tropical Dreams. Besos BobbiStorm Ps... I do think Hanna could go Hurricane. I'm not saying it's a done deal. But the possibility is there. Let's see how it looks tomorrow. Meanwhile NHC still has hurricane set for Gonzo. Let's see Chapter 2 in this drama tomorrow. Night! |
5 PM Live Blog here on the Tropics Today.
And the tropics just got busier.
To the far left we have TD 8
Gaining a shape, bulking up.
Must have a good Life Coach.
Much more together tonight!
Hanna could surprise us.
Gonzalo doing it's thing.
Really just traveling West.
Not stronger. Not really weaker.
Flares up and dies down all day.
Still there and still forecast to be a Cane.
NHC going out on a limb with this one.
Models and data from Recon is what they do.
And they do it well.
Speaking of doing things well.
5PM was a great discussion from the NHC.
I felt as if I was reading about a movie.
And I mean that it a very good way.
It's hard to say much about Gonzalo...
...that hasn't already been said.
Entertaining and informative.
I want to show the Cone down here this way.
It's interesting how far apart these 3 storms are...
..yet their Cone looks the same.
In the EPAC there's Douglas.
Next we have Gonzalo...
Similar kind of track...
Note it is going to make landfall in the Islands.
As a TS or a Hurricane?
Makes a difference.
Lastly TD 8 AKA Hanna making landfall.
West... maybe hooks left.
It's interesting but it's July.
No strong frontal boudaries dipping down.
Nature and Planet Earth are fascinating.
This is one of my favorite sat images.
Shows the whole basin.
These are my thoughts tonight and I want to be clear here. Both Gonzalo and Hanna can surprise us down the road in different ways. Gonzo is small and small storms can ramp up fast or unravel fast and models do not handle them very well. It's west enough now that it has warm water and it's been running aorund with the dry air the whole way from Africa. If it maintains it's core it could be an issue down the line, but it has to survive right now to gain that fame as a Hurricane and keep it's name. Wouldn't it be ironic if Hanna steals the 1st Hurricane Medal of the 2020 Hurricane Season. It's been wasy for many to make fun of TD8 as it looked horrible yesterday even though it slammed South Florida and the Florida Keys with heavy storms, heavier than usual. And, it's worth remembering that TD8 is an African Wave that wandered and wobbled along Westbound all the way into the Gulf of Mexico to threaten Texas. Very close in for a few reasons Tropical Storms can ramp up fast on landfall so don't be surprised if it surprises you. As for the new wae, well we have lots of time to discuss that tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.
The heat here has been unbearable but we have a crazy thunderstorm around 4 PM and our temps fell into the high 70s for a bit. Really that was wonderful. I have various allergy related issues that I have had my whole life, nothing that other the counter meds don't handle but they make a bit tired and I don't like being tired so sometimes I don't take them as much as I should. Took a bit of a break today watching loops, resting and doing some research on a project vs talking online all day. If you are reading this still I appreciate your patience. I even texted my husband he can make dinner; this is not hard for him he loves cooking as he was a trained chef way back being raised in the hotel business. So I'm just gonna loop some loops and watch our tropical systems. I may even run some models.
Understand tropical systems can often surprise us with rapid intensificaiton or simply outrunning their cernter, tilting and falling over and making a mess of what seemed a great forecast. People are like that in that underachievers become Millionaires and that guy who was most likely to suceed after being Valedictorian ends up as an artist doing his thing out in the woods barely even bothering to sell his art. Cyclones are capable even in 2020 of surprising us and underachieving and overachieving. But it's a drama, we watch and work our way through and that is what I meant about the discussion today at 5 PM. You think a storm is going to become a hurricane and it barely can keep it's convection and then it ends up going the distance into Central America or working it's way up near Jamaica through the Yucatan and becomes a Gulf of Mexico threat. As much as we know, there is so much we don't know.
Stay tuned... Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps... if you haven't read the earlier part of the blog and enjoy a long read... go for it. I'll understand if you don't but I do like having a record to look back on when we are dealing with the I storm and the K storm and even the M and N storm under certain conditions and comparing and contrasting with Hanna and Gonzo. Oh and I have a few degrees from college and one is English (not that you can tell from my grammar here) and work towards a Masters in English Literature. Gonzo was a nickname and a name for a type of journalism and good write named Hunter S. Thompson who had moments of genius when he was not going off the rails living his life. Memorable. Maybe Gonzalo will be memorable in the end for something more than being a teeny, tiny Tropical Storm in July. Sorry for any typos... my eyes are driving me crazy but if I take the allergy meds they suggested I'd be Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz before they upgrade TD8 to Hanna ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsKZewdhDtk nice song... great song. I"m remembering how the Southern part of the wave that became 91L that became TD8 that will become Hanna kicked up the weather down there a few days back. They may get more weather down the tropical road this year as this set up with a strong High may bring them more weather... just my thoughts.
* * * From earlier today * * *
New Wave coming off of Africa.
Big wave.
Follows in Gonzo's track.
As Gonzo is small there's not much upwelling!
11 AM ...Compare and Contrast with the 5 AM Below.
I suggest you read the discussion.
It's well written and explains Gonzalo's problems.
For now the NHC is sticking by Gonzalo.
Keeping him briefly a hurricane...
...tho many doubt that will happen.
Also worth noting old models showed this movement.
Some insisted Gonzo would take a Southerly tract.
Note they pushed the Wind Probs to the South now.
This is a good example of how it's an indicator...
Just an interesting part of the package to watch.
Watch it for many reasons not just the obvious.
And note 2 days ago some models picked up on this.
See the more Southerly track in the red line.
As for TD8 (not Hanna yet)
There are watches and warnings up.
You can view them in dpeth with the link below.
Thursday's Blog on the Tropics.
11 AM changes I put at the top.
I was confident neither would be upgraded at 11.
So I wrote the blog around 10 AM.
This map tells the story well.
To the left moisture and TD8 aka Hanna
To the right it's dry air and pockets of miosture.
Gonzalo chugging along as best it cane.
This new little pop up island of moisture.
My bottom line is at the top here in my video.
I'll update later today if and when the forecast verifies.
Know meteorologists have questioned certain models.
Time will tell as always.
Keep reading for details after my video if you wish.
https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm/status/1286295963074793474?s=20
That's the link to my Twitter Video above.
I'm going to lead with this loop up above.
When you see Hanna on the 3 day loop.
It's pretty much a done deal.
It doesn't look really like a TS now.
But give it time over warm water.
This is what storms do in the Gulf of Mexico.
They gussie up really nice for landfall.
Selfies are important.
Before looking at the Cone....
...check out this grid from Spaghetti Models.
That's your bottom line really with "Hanna"
Rain is the name of the game.
Being serious here despite being in hot water and in an environment filled with moisture Tropical Depression 8 has been struggling to find herself. A center is beginning to show up and as she cruises on towards landfall she should ramp up enough that the NHC's forecast will verify and she can attain the name Hanna. The end result is rain, lots of rain and more rain coming down the line probably as this area has been rich with tropical systems headed around a huge high propelling them fast towards Texas and nearby areas later in the season.
"What do you mean by that Bobbi?"
July and August storms trace the high pressure ridge and with a lack of cold fronts dipping down anywhere near by it's hard for them to pull North so Texas and Tex Mex get the early systems. The caveat here is that this is when they are weak, and if a hurricane is able to form it has a need to pull more towards the Poles (as in the North Pole in our hemisphere) and if there is any weakness in that ridge they will find it and pull to the right towards the Central Gulf Coast. Without that weakness and while being weak they continue on westbound towards Texas. TD8 AKA Hanna is a perfect example of that sort of early, GOM system.
The NHC has been consistent with the belief that it will attain Tropical Storm status and unless they pull back on that at 11 (and I doubt they will) this will get the name Hanna. It's their job to make the call and they have already written the script based on model support and that's the story with that.
Gonzalo below.
Now cheeck out the models.
There's some divergence down the road.
Suddenly new places are in the Wind Probs.
I'll post a link for them later.
Discussion on the modeling question.
Question being which one is right?
At 5 AM NHC sticks with Hurricane Status.
I had an incredible friend who lived in Key West and I'd spend hours and hours lost in deep thoughts as we drove back and forth across the Overseas Highway on life and other things. He was a business man and he taught me to look at the world differently. I was always putting out fires so to speak trying to find money to pay important bills and raising a whole bunch of kids so pretty much I always thought Short Term when asked on the future. "What are your goals Bobbi" my response would be "pay the water bill" or "pay the electric bill" and he'd ask what my Long Term Goals were. Wow, that stumped me because life in those days was one storm after another. Life should be filled with short term goals and long term goals and yes often long term goals change as life like the weather evolves.
Short term goal for Gonzalo is to get where the NHC forecasts it will get and attain Hurricane Status.
Long term goal may be where it's going down the road?
What does that mean you ask?
It's possible, Gonzo falls apart as some models have insisted it wil and then it comes back once it finds a more supportive upper air environment where the water is warmer and the air more juiced up and if that little center it's got can keep going ... things could get interesting. But there are no guarantees right now on that long term road trip.
Why Wind Probs are interesting is that they show the trend that may show up later in the forecast. As new areas show up in Wind Probls that are further to the North than the previous forecast period you watch to see the next Wind Probs and they often indicate a wider cone or more possibilities for Gonzo's long term goals.
Hispaniola has been added to the wind probs.
Compare and contrast with yesterday.
Compare and contrast with later today.
Keep watching.
Will Gonzalo live to get to it's Long Term Goals?
That is the big question.
So I'll update later or I'll write a new blog depending on what's going on and my mood. Again, what I said earlier in the video is the real story. TD8 Needs a Center even though it's over warm water and in a moisture filled area and Gonzalo has a good core for now but is fighting a dry environment with mediocre water temperatures.
I'll put the 11 AM info at the top to compare to the 5 AM once it's out.
Thanks for reading, listening and following along.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Twitter is mostly weather, Instagram is whatever and weather when there's what to post on.
Ps... I'm itching to get on the road yet I've been told to stay home and be cautious as asthma is an issue but my allergies have been off the charts this week as Raleigh is now on it's 5th day of Heat Advisories and in truth anywhere we would normally go it's just as hot as it is here. It's called Summer, I know. Just waiting for it to moderate a bit and for it to be safer to hit the road.
If you're a Willie fan like I am this is one of his best CDs.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:29 AM
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