Good Hot Sunday Morning ... Watching GOM Possibilities. NHC 20% Yellow Circle Headed Into the GOM

This is the area that we have been watching to see something with the possibility of development. You know where it begins to jell and slowly drift through the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico. And, yes it will stay to the South because of the HUGE HIGH shown below, but it should enhance rainfall across Florida just the same. But it's Westward Bound into the Gulf of Mexico.  And, that takes it straight into the area close in that I've mentioned that needs to be watched in this basic set up where the African Wave Train is still a bit suppressed from the African Dust chasing the waves but close in, homegrown is where it's at this week. You have a classic set up with a huge high to the North with beating heat and warm tropical moisture to the South. I've been saying this coming weekend we should have something to watch be it Invest or actually a named storm and this could be it; unless that African Wave is a fighter but more on that later.

I do so love juxtaposition.

Two grids from Mike's Spaghetti Models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Note the area it lands in is already filled with moisture.

This has been an ongoing moisture route.

Not the Express Train.

More like the local Greyhound Bus doing it's thing.

And the thunderstorms slide in from the Gulf...

This image shows the High Pressure.

Look at the High Pressure not the Lows.

This shows why I said the Florida Straits.

Depending on that High....

...the High directs the show.

Temperatures are hot.

Temperatures are very supportive for development.

And the SAL maps from Spectrum News is also a positive.

Not a lot of dust, just a bit.

I love this site, it's a great site to bookmark.

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/tropical.map.html/

HurricaneIndex#Water_Temperatures-WX

This is scheduled for the 5 day period from the NHC.

So let's look at the 5 Day Rain Forecasts.

Reminds me of that song.

Sraight from the Heart.

From the Heart of the Florida Straits.

May come our G Storm.

You can see from the loop below....

...where this wants to go.

But will it go as just heavy rain?

Or does it get a name?

Lastly, never stop watching Africa!

Nice Purple blobs down there.

Blobs are the waves....

So there's your loop.

The whole wide Atlantic Basin.

So being honest here I love watching African Waves, but the Saharan Dust needs to slow down a bit and there are signs it might be slowing down. The sea temperatures out there need to warm up, they are nowhere near as warm and supportive as the Florida Straits. A few factors need to flip over to where that region is really supportive of development and less shear and then we get near to where we are naming waves not just watching them. You never know, but for now close in, near the coast is where the higher chances are to get a Tropical Depression or Storm form. 

Check back Monday Morning and see where we be then. But, until then please be careful with the heat in the Southeast. We are under a Heat Advisory in Florida and I may hide inside all day at this rate sipping frozen drinks. I began my day with an Iced Coffee, that's how hot it is, and sitting under the fan with the AC on and doing resarching, reading or who knows what.  Have a good weekend! 

Stay safe, becareful with the Cornoa (virus not the beer) and cautious in the Heat...stay hydrated!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... here's a classic. Every see Willie in person live? I have. My brother actually treated me for my birthday and we went and loved it. Also saw a few others of the Highwaymen over time, way back in time. One of my favorite songs, enjoy.