Updated 2 PM - 91L Goes RED, 80% Chances of Becomming Hanna! Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forms from TD 7 -2 Systems to Watch, in the Tropics. Both With the Potential for Landfall. Gonzalo and Hanna Up Next.
Welcome to National Update Day!
Fast moving news in the Weather World.
NHC has now made 91L 80%
May become Hanna.
Models below.
And Gonzo is putting on a show.
Sending Hurricane signals on Earthnull!
Check back at 5 to see what condition
Gonzalo is in.........
Also could NHC post potential watches and warnings?
91L moving fast, forecast to develop close in
...before Landfall in Texas.
They may go with that.
Hard to say what they will do.
But they seem to be planning something.
Later... Bobbi
Small but currently picture perfect!
Convection over the center.
Banding. Impressive.
Gonzalo moving fast at 14 MPH Westbound.
50 MPH winds. Expected to intensify fast.
Strenthening and forecast to be a Hurricane.
Good App and good to follow on Twitter!
@hurrtrackerapp
Earliest named G storm...
...2020 a year for breaking records.
Gert held the previous record from 2005.
Stormy weather over the GOM 91L
Wave Train in the Deep Atlantic in July
Tightly would storm.
Cone below.
Gonzalo in the MDR.
(Main Development Region)
Earliest named G storm...
...welcome to 2020 ...right?
Models....
This grid is up on Spaghetti Models.
Note the Intensity models vary greatly.
Track seems set for next several days.
But which model is correct regarding intensity?
Intensity graphic from www.tropicaltidbits.com
To the left obviously it's an Invest. (Potential)
To the right there's a TD that looked like a TS.
And now it is a TS, it was obvious!
My thoughts on what is forecast by the NHC to be Gonzalo sometime later today are the same as they were yesterday. It's a small tightly wound system and small systems sometimes can maintain themselves even when traveling through dry condintions present today. We've seen storms in this area that look just like this and everyone makes fun of their size and predicts they will die any minute and some do unravel and fade away and others go down into history as Major Hurricanes. With such a wide model spread and not enough time yet to watch it do it's thing it's simply too soon to tell which model is best handling it. And note models have a problem handling very small storms such as this one. A good example is when looking at Earthnull it's hard to even find it without zooming in for a better look. Over the next 24 hours as it moves towards warmer water and we get more data and we will have a better idea of the final end game. Enjoy this day by day rather than asking on the next wave behind it and yes there are two waves behind it. This is now the beginning of the busy part of this very busy Hurricane Season so expect hurricanes to happen not just one day, one hit wonder storms that form fast and then fade away as fast.
Closer in and in the short term we have 91L
This would be Hanna should it get a name.
My thoughts on 91L is that it is very right sided and not alligned with most likely what is it's center. It really doesn't have a well defined center, it's a large amorphous mass of convection that is delivering a strong punch to the South Florida area today, despite it's "X marks the spot" being off in the Gulf of Mexico. Until this wraps up it may have multiple centers vying for control and where that center does develop may impact the future models. I like to think of Invest 90L as a scouting mission into Texas to see what 91L will find when it gets there. The pattern is so set currently around an anchored High Pressure area and so there is little variation in the models; that said there is always one model that breaks from the pack.
Note there is an ULL near 91L
It's been dogging it, leading it.
Interfering with it.....
...and in the right position it could enhance it.
See the dip by the Yucatan?
(black red line to the W of 91L)
91L to it's NE now.
This could help set this one on fire.
Or not. Use the loop below.
Watch the tropical drama close in...
...in the very hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
If you get an Upper Level Low below to the SW
of a developing TS it basically tickles it!
And you see a flare up of convection.
Time will tell.
But it's a great drama to watch.
BOTTOM LINE:
Putting it all together....
...watch TD7 (TS really) down below rolling.
TD7 continues to become better organized today with a nice band developing on its north side. Also a recent microwave pass shows that TD7 has begun to develop a core and already has an eyewall developing. If this continues, rapid intensification is likely. pic.twitter.com/UdniiAbfYV— Railey Kelly (@NightriderFL) July 22, 2020
This is from a friend online, it's a an excellent and realistic presentation of what is going on with what was TD7 now a Tropical Storm. It's small, tightly wound and consistently spinning it's way West. It's staying low for now. Think of it as something good in a small package such as a chocolate kiss or a tangerine gumdrop. Down the road, should it survive the trip, it will not be a small package and it could be dangerous vs delicious. Some food for thought this morning as we watch two areas in the tropics in a busy season with models that show both making landfall.
Today is a good day to watch both Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico and soon to be Tropical Storm out in the distant Atlantic. Yes, I know the tropics are on warp speed this year but as we have already learned in 2020 it is what it is so let's deal with it one day at a time. There's too much of a rush these days to start taking the next wave forecast to be a tropical depression while ignoring the one that's currently putting on a show. It's going to be a long, long hurricane season so don't burn yourself out chasing waves that haven't even splashed down into the Atlantic that are still over Africa. That's my advice for the day. That said, never stop watching waves :)
Besos BobbiStormn
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps... a bit of my Instagram that is a mix of weather and whatever below.
An example from my Instagram today. I woke up too early, checked the advisory and decided to go for a walk rather than going back to sleep. I live in Raleigh and we are inland and the horizon here is very cluttered with oaks and pines; beautiful if you like living in green scenery that looks forest like in places. The light through the pines is always poetic. Needed to get out fast before it was too hot and humid and I'd feel like I'm back "home" in Miami. These days I have a few places I call home obviously, but Raleigh has become a good place to be in the world we live in today.
Walked over to the golf course... caught this one glimmer of orange where a cloud appeared hidden by the pines on the golf course. Then walked back listening to the gloriously, wonderful Darius Rucker singing Wagon Wheel and the purpose of this PS today is to show you how perfectly he caught Raleigh in that song and the way he sings it is oh my gosh glorious! So yes Bobbi danced her way home in the land of the pines and then drank some really strong Cuban Coffee!
5 Minutes of Musical Nirvana...
posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:36 AM
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