Hanna and Gonzalo. Hanna May Steal the Hurricane Status ...As Gonzalo Seems to Want to Stay Weak But Westbound. Model Discussion and Discussion on the Models.
5 PM look at the Tropics.
The whole wide Atlantic Basin.
You can see Hanna making her move.
Moving towards landfall.
Gonzalo still going West.
Small, hard to find but there.
Huge big wave off of Africa....
...catching everyone's imagination.
More on that later.
So let's begin with the closest concern.
Hanna, a Tropical Storm moving towards landfall.
I want you to be aware the weather associated with Hanna..
...is moving towards many areas of the GOM coast.
It's a large weather system.
You can see the radar loop below.
While the center of Hanna is visible.
You can see associated rains everywhere.
Typical with a developing system.
It's apparent that Hanna is intensifying.
Bulking up. Going in for a landfall.
It's very probable Hanna could be a Hurricane.
A hurricane as it approaches land.
NHC has this and we can see it on radar.
So everyone will know in real time.
Plenty of time to take it seriously.
But when you live in that part of the world...
A borderline TS/Hurricane is par for the course.
They can cause trouble but not like a Cat 3 Cane.
The NHC has hoisted Hurricane Warnings for Texas.
Follow the advice of the NHC and NWS.
It's apparent that Hanna is intensifying.
Bulking up. Going in for a landfall.
It's very probable Hanna could be a Hurricane.
A hurricane as it approaches land.
NHC has this and we can see it on radar.
So everyone will know in real time.
Plenty of time to take it seriously.
But when you live in that part of the world...
A borderline TS/Hurricane is par for the course.
They can cause trouble but not like a Cat 3 Cane.
The NHC has hoisted Hurricane Warnings for Texas.
Follow the advice of the NHC and NWS.
Cone remains the same.
No matter where they relocate the center.
No matter where they relocate the center.
As for Gonzalo.
As I mentioned earlier it was obvious from various methodology that Gonzalo was not as strong or expected to be as strong as the advisories had been insisting. Advisories adjust in real time, and after Recon went in and there was definitive proof it was weaker than previously thought they adjusted the wind speed and took out the hurricane on arrival option.That is not to say that cannot change as small systems are very hard to forecast in detail but currently it's cruising towards Trinidad and Tobago. Some models lose it, some take it to Jamaica (as a very weak small storm) and others show it finding a weakness and pulling to the right to make a run at another landfall. For now that should be up on a shelf somewhere and let's wait to see what it does after it gets into the Caribbean before fantasizing on other scenarios way down the road. I'm not ruling out it survives as opposed to unraveling in the Caribbeanm but as always time will tell; small systems are very hard to be sure on and this is as small as it gets but it has been extremely consistent.
You want to see the models?
Here's the models.
Take them with Sea Salt past the 3 day period.
And as always models update in real time.
I promised discusison on the new wave and there's a wave behind the new wave so here it is but understand models this far out do show some valuable information, but the details get sketchy in real time. They show the strength of the high and how moist or dry a region is going to be and often they show a wave developing and then they lose it on the next model update. It's like potential rarely realized this far out. Remember when you were a kid and someone asked you what you wanted to be?
I used to say I wanted to move to New York or maybe LA and be an actress. The part of me that studied drama and loved acting was sure I wanted to be the greatest star. The part of me that loved politics knew I wanted to move to New York or Washington, study political science and do something with politics to make the world a better place. The part of me that was a writer used to want to move to California one day with my best friend who was also a writer and we had dreams of living up by Big Sur or somewhere near there writing and having an open home for writers, artists and well basically we wanted to run a Salon of sorts; perhaps were channeling another lifetime I don't know but it made total sense.
I did go to New York after highschool and ended up studying Hebrew studies and teaching at a Seminary in Brooklyn. I ran around NYC with close friends shopping, ate a lot of Kosher Pizza and Falafel and then came back to Miami, dated old boyfriends and went to college. I studied English and Political Science and then took a second degree in International Relations that was almost all Geography and Politics. Then I got married to a guy from LA and moved to LA with him a few years later and we ran a Chabad House where our house was open to everyone and trust me a lot of artists, writers and performers showed up. So I did make it to NYC and I did make it to LA but the reality was a bit different from the early models and forecasts from friends who knew where I was headed.
Models are like that. They get some things correct. They show a wave is weak or it has the potential for big things. They show the HIGH is HUGE and they show it may have an opening in the High down the road that the model could take IF it develops and gets there at the right time. But rarely does a model show a wave off of Africa and forecast it will hit Miami or Charleston 12 days out and rarely does the model verify exactly. A hurricane may form and cruise by Miami staying offshore on it's way somewhere else. Miami people shop, get nervous and it makes landfall up near OBX in North Carolina. Was the model wrong? Yes and no as it did make it across the ocean, came close to Miami but the every changing currents took it somewhere else. And, now I live in North Carolina and wonder if each new wave will be a Carolina storm vs a Florida storm. Life like weather evolves in real time.
Surprisingly the CMC that I looked at doesn't see anything, surprising I know.
The Euro has many modes and often don't see much yet the ensemble sees something. The Euro shows Gonzalo collapsing after finally making it to the Islands yet shows an I Storm trying to take on the Islands, Hispaniola AND Cuba before heading for the Florida Straits; pretty sure that is going to change on different model runs.
The HWRF loses Gonzalo and shows a moist Caribbean but without any big systems.
The HMON, the model with the best name, keeps Gonzalo all the way to Jamaica as a weak, small Gonzalo. Not surprising actually.
The NAVY MODEL as many like to call it shows it crossing Cuba and heading up into the Gulf of Mexico. Talking Gonzalo not the I storm.
The GFS shows a 992 system near the Florida Straits, one of the models.
This graph shows possilities
The Atlantic has potential definitely.
Waves are there, packed and ready to travel.
This run of this model shows a L over the Florida Straits.
You see a pattern here?
Another wave coming off looks strong.
That's for August 3rd.
Don't bet on it but things WILL be busier.
Back to reality, this is for tomorrow.
That you can take to the bank.
Here's the model showing Gonzola near Jamaica.
Still small, still traveling West.
This shows "Probability" off Africa.
There's a purple dinsoaur.
It reminds me of Barney.
Or a purple camel.
As I said, enjoy the models being passed around online.
Think of them like Baseball Cards.
Remember those?
Until it has a center it's all theory.
My son in Miami just said something funny to me. He just wants to know the weather for this weekend, if he will be able to take his bik eon a long ride or not. As far as hurricanes and tropical waves unless it's 3 days out he doesn't want to hear about it. There's just too much going on in the world. And, being my kids they are always prepared so I'm not worried. I worry on Covid and other things, less about them not knowing a hurricane is coming.
So that's it for me. It's been a horrible week in some ways for me as we had five days in Raleigh with Heat Alerts and "feels like 101" several days in a row. That sort of weather messes with my allergies and I get headaches and my head gets funny and I have to take medication that makes my head get even funnier. I am so over summer. Every year when it gets like this I travel somewhere or hit the road but this year I haven't been traveling because Covid and 2020 and so it is what it is but thankfully the weather moderated today and if only for 24 hours it will be in the low 80s I'm going to enjoy it!
So that's the story ... my life.... the tropics and wishing you all the most wonderful weekend and if you love the tropics and are obsessed with weather you can stay home and watch TWC nonstop all weekend. Or go out and have a great time in the fresh air being socially proper and all that jazz.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps I'll be off until late Saturday Night as I go offline for the Jewish Sabbath so follow all my friends I follow and www.spaghettimodels.com has a ton of links, loops and models for you to stay busy all weekend.
No song. Google a version of Hard Hearted Hanna... one of my all time favorite songs when I used to bump and grind to it when I was 5 years old. My mother was not amused. My dancing teacher said I was good. My mother took me out of that dance class darn fast. Now you know the rest of the story.
So many versions of this classic song.
Then there's this one...
I've aways loved flappers.
Maybe in another life time.. I mean how else does a 4 year old know how to Shimmy.
Here's one to laugh and enjoy because it's 2020 and we all need to laugh more.
God I love this song.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 3:27 PM
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