Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED 8 PM . NHC Relocates Position to the South a Bit. - Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 .... NHC Putting up Potential Cone (Good Call) for 92L Soon to be I Storm?

This is our system of the evening.

PTC 9 forecast to be a TS

Note it's IN the Islands very low.

Michael Watkins notes this below.

The NHC rarely adjusts at 8PM...

..rarely adjusts location that much.

To the South as I've said and many have said.

The area on the SW side has been pumping.

Is that the new center?

11 PM should see more information.

Again this shows how it's in the Islands now.

Low down too...

8 PM Cone.

Close up of how they moved the Starting Point.

My thoughts.

Over night models with recon data....

...should give us better models.

And expect the track to adjust.

More to come...

...in real time.

This is my favorite map.

It's from the NRL

This is the view from Earthnull.

It shows the problem within this system.

An elongated like center.

2 Areas within the one visible.

From a distance it looks like a wide center.

Not really, it's a problem for the NHC.

They put up watches and warnings.

This is the area where cells are popping tonight.

By the morning we should know more.

But it's literally in the Islands.

Approaching them fast.

So stay tuned.

I'll update if and when the NHC upgrades.

Til then continue to prepare if you are in the Cone.

Prepare as in supplies, where you would go if needed.

Check around your property.

if you don't need it for this one......

...the one behind it looks impressive.

Stay tuned and keep on reading.

There's the much awaited Cone.

Love coordinates.

They matter.

I might track this one by hand....

What PTC9 looks like today.

(crab or space ship?)

Seriously much to say here.

But want to keep it simple.

I implore you if you enjoy learning more about Hurricanes and you don't do this now please read the discussion the NHC puts out as you will learn much more than any picture can show you and remember Cones change over time and the discussion foreshadows that and explains what might happen that which is is not in the actual cone or other graphics you see online. A headline or a Tweet doesn't tell the whole story. Words matter and they work carefully to use just the right words to discuss the cyclone.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/281458.shtml

Also always good to watch the Wind Probs that change often from advisory to advisory.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/281457.shtml?

Jim from HurricaneCity fame is in it... are you?

Samples of information in Discusison.

And more so .........

More so check out those coordinates.

And key concerns from the NHC

That last coordinate is below.

Read the discussion.

My bottom line is this......... it's compelling to see the Miami to WPB area in the cone for landfall and more so showing it going that far inland vs marching up AIA or riding along on the I95. But, many times the 5 day cone doesn't become the end game, however as you watch them change (or stay the same) you see how things are evolving in real time. Miami worried they would get Hurricane Sandy after it finished trashing Cuba but it missed Miami, sailed by on it's way to New York City. And Miami people watched Bertha back when thinking it could be a Miami storm but it sailed by on it's way to North Carolina.

Adding to the Hurricane History from before...

..when I mentioned Flora, Cleo, Matthew and Dorian.

Those tracks are shown below...

Remember Bertha in JULY as well.

Updating in real time as info from recon comes in...

...please keep reading if you didn't do so.

Especially my thoughts below on history.

WSVN is great to follow.

I'll be watching Phil Ferro carefully.

I have a lot of family in South Florida.

PTC9 may be far to the South.

But it's forecast track swings it back to the North.

Miami, Key West, Charleston, Wilmington all watching.

As are the Islands closer in to this system now.

But it may be stronger down the line.

Depending on where it actually goes.

We will know more detail from Recon soon.

For now NHC is putting out PTC9 Advisories.

This is what the Potential Tropical Cyclone Warnings were designed for.... Invest 92L is the perfect example of why the product was developed. Sometimes waves wander west messy and then wrap up just before the Islands the way Hanna developed close in to Texas. Keep that in mind, rather than Gonzalo never really making the grade. Invest 92L has had much going on with multiple centers and tropical storm force winds while moving towards the Islands rapidly.

Some Hurricane History here.

Many wonder if it's so low....

...can it impact the East Coast?

Or still go out to sea??

Flora shown below.