92L Waiting on an Upgrade But Needs to Consolidate Around a True Center. Big Wave Issues... Opposite of Gonzalo Tiny Storm Issues. Where Does the I Storm Go? Depends Partly on Where It Begins.

Of course as I say in the video... when I say stay where it’s dry I don’t mean Arizona hot & dry but moderately warm or cool & dry. #92L where is the exact center that better model runs will come from. Send in the planes!! Atlantic has s juicing up. pic.twitter.com/XLGWPtnKRE

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) July 27, 2020

And a look at the Mimic Loop where we can see the Twist and dance moves 92L has but again where is the exact center and will it remain the center. Big Wave Issues.....

Find the true center of #92L the center that remains when it becomes a #hurricane. Wait & watch day as it gets it’s act together. If this were a movie it would be large epic with lots of costumes maybe w Arnold Schwarzenegger pic.twitter.com/p2KNb2Mfr8

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) July 27, 2020

Let's begin with the facts as we know them. There is a huge wave in the Atlantic moving fairly rapidly towards the Islands. There is also a wave behind it and it's Wave Train Season when African Waves are viable and problematic.  The NHC puts out a grid that is a zone for formation, somewhere in that grid something will form. Chances as of 8 AM are 90% in the 5 day and 80% in the 2 day. Basically it's a done deal. But the devil is in the details and the details matter. Currently we have models spitting out various solutions, all screaming "HURRICANE" yet the tracks are not the same. Some take it up over the Islands (and when I say Islands I mean more likely Virgin Islands) while others keep it weaker, developing slowly (as big systems do) and take it a bit further South and others take it up and over the Islands. Why such a wide range of possible down the road solutions. First off we don't have a verified center that will last. Often in large waves there are several competing centers and energy gets shifted back and forth as they lumber a long. Even after the NHC puts out it's first advisory package we know that often after recon goes in and things evolve there can be a jump or relcation of that early center. Once we have a center, a real CDO trying to clear out an eye we should have better alignment of the models even though they always vary in some way. This is just the way it works, nothing new about this process that can be attributed to the odd year of 2020.

The water vapor image below illustrates this issue.

Where is the true center?

Time to send in the planes with this one.

That will happen once it crosses the line....

...gets far enough West for the planes to do their thing.

Flare ups of convection are typical.

Consistency of convection is key.

Note the wave behind it.

And see the one over Africa.

This is not going to be a quiet, forgettable year.

So currently the models that take it towards "the Islands" going through or around the more Northerly Islands is totally plausible. The problem is the lower tracks are also plausible if it takes too long to pull itself together into one spinning, swirling mass of convection with a defined eye. Stronger systems want to go towards the Poles and find a weakness in the High. Weaker, messy systems tend to get a bit lazy and wander around like Pigpen in a Peanuts Cartoon. Most models scream hurricane and that would imply this gets it's act together sooner rather than later. It's all in timing here.

Using this grid from Mike's page.

Shows the problem.

You can't really judge the end game by the short game because even a more Westerly bound wave developing into a real storm building up in the atmosphere turning into a Hurricane faster can turn more sharply to the right and end up in the same place that a steadily moving WNW Tropical Storm will get to. At some point this storm has a destination and therein is the problem forecasters face today. If you want to keep a secure thought some models do show this curving so much into what has been a pretty strong High that it becomes a Fish Storm curving away from landfall. I can't say that is going to happen and the possibility of it finding a weakness in the High that is temporary allowing it to pull more to the North is there and then it's very probable the High snaps back into place not allowing the I storm to escape so easily. 

If you live in Florida you know how this rodeo goes and you most likely already have supplies and an idea of where you will go while trying to socially isolate safely. If you live in the Carolinas you see every storm that ever formed and made landfall written all over this one and you know what to do. If you live in North Florida or Georgia you are probably holding on to the illusion of safety and talking to yourself about the Georgia Bight (it has several names and exact boundaries) will protect you and often it does but not always so get your plans together and hope it goes out to sea like a fish storm. If this was a betting game and someone told me I had to place a bet (not a better) I'd say it tangles with or clips the Outer Banks, usually the safest bet but 2020 hasn't been a very safe year so just get your hurricane planes together now and settle back with whatever you drink and watch this tropical drama unfold.

https://www.savannahnow.com/article/20080906/NEWS/309069909

Nice article on that subject, feel free to Google the topic. 

If and when the NHC does their upgrade thing and makes a call on 92L I'll update. But, really for now, this is the story. Until we get a real well defined center (eye like center) the models will flip flop all over the place with every blow up of convection somewhere. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Ps.. Some sites show a center around 12 North and 42 West but that's a best guess for the current moment and again large systems have many candidates for the crown and title. So until recon drops their instruments down into the storm and evaluates the data and runs another set of models with that important data then all bets are off on anyone knowing for sure the exact tract. And, yes we all have our own ideas but ideas are not facts.

(to be honest I had several different colors)

I lived in LA in the 1980s. It was a great time to be in the Southern California. One of my best friends always comes to mind when I hear this song in my head. Her father owned the California State Carnival that was rented out to the movie studio for these scenes. We used to drive around the steep hills of Signal Hill n her Grandfather's old ford with bad brakes that looked like it was used in the movie Grapes of Wrath and had made it miraculously to California with a truck load of Oakies. High Hot Pink Barbie Colored Hill Heel Candies on my feet....  driving around and down Signal Hill with a view of the Pacific singing songs together ...both pregnant while good babysitter maids watched the other babies briefly while we did our thing. We were actually using the truck to do some work... long story, but not going there. 

92L better shape up fast so we get a handle on where it is going... cause it is going towards a landfall somewhere.

Trust me the reliable but funky old Ford Pick Up truck was way safer than this but you get a good idea of the height of that hill from this video. Some people so skiing and others did Signal Hill.

If you ever go to Long Beach (and many tourists do) the view from the Hill is wild, especially on a clar day.