Midnight Update. HURRICANE ISAIAS ---- Intensifying Faster than Forecast ........11 PM Tropical Storm ISAIAS Advisory, Cone and Thoughts

11 PM Forecast Points.

36 hours showed a hurricane.

Midnight Upgrade at hour later shows a new forecast points.

Category 2 Hurricane down the road....

...doesn't seem to unbeliveable does it?

So here we are an hour after the 11 Pm Advisory was put out and rather than taking 36 hours as per their 11 PM Forecast Discussion... ISAIAS moves off of Hispanoila and turns Hurricane immediately an hour after the 11 PM was released. If you read further down you'll see I was concerned about "kinks" in the forecast. Something is off be it tiimng or intensity, that I knew but I expected to see it in the morning not an hour later.  Intensity forecasting is the Holy Grail that escsapes the NHC often as it did by Dorian when it rapidly itnensified after coming off of the Virgin Islands. We are further West from that position as ISAIAS is actually where the NHC thought Dorian would be before Dorian hit intensified over the Virgin Islands rather than going over Hispanoila.   The belief that Hispanoila is the cure all for Florida storms has been disproved again and again; granted often it can help by destroying a storm but often what doesn't kill it only makes it stronger.

So again I'll say it one more time. While the NHC track cone is the bottom line, always prepare for one category more than it shows and if you are in or near the cone or even on the edge of the cone... do not turn your back unti it's in the rear view mirror. Just as intensity can happen... a slow down in forward speed could happen while it's battling the shear the NHC has mentioned and I still have questions personally on the High Pressure. Have to see what we wake up to in the morning. But, a lot of people who went to sleep at 11 with an early advisory that was short and seemed to show a movement less concerning for Florida suddenly seems not as relevant as to concerns what other kinks can show up in the forecast.  Hurricanes are not easy to predict, we like to think they are in 2020 but it's 2020 so go with the rule that anything can happen, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Sweet Tropical Dreams... BobbiStorm.. Please keep reading the information was written about 90 minutes ago my thoughts on concerns on a kink in the forecast are very relevant.

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Time of Arrival of Winds..

Earthnull shows the center straddling the coastline.

Know a good part of it is over water feeding it.

One of the benefits of being a big system.

Intensity forecast from the NHC.

I'd prepare for a Cat 2 and hopefully....

... people feel nothing more than TS winds.

To be honest the problem is that until ISAIAS really is off the coastline and swimming fast in the water we don't know for sure what it will look like and if there are any kinks in the current forecast track. One kink may be timing, it's slowed every so in it's foreward speed. The area near the SE coast that is tugging it in that direction is there in place, meanwhile ISAIAS is still partially over land. The timing has to be perfect for this track to verify and if one part of the equation changes then sometimes the end result changes as well. 

As for Florida. You are obviously mostly not in the cone, on the edge of the cone and Floridians know well how fast flavors can change and suddenly there is no Caribbean Rum Raisin and only Butter Pecan avaialble. What looked like a Florida storm ends up near Georgia headed to South Carolina. Odds are that it stays offshore but again until we see what it looks like in the morning and if all the steering currents are still the same tomorrow I wouldn't sound any all clear nor tell you not to worry about it. It's best to be cautious and hope the awaited curve away from the coast happens. 

For Georgia, Carolinas and Virginia If the storm comes close to you and it's more intense than expected it can have impacts in the way irma impacted St. Marys Georgia but that was a rare blow and a hruricane that had been traveling a long ways. This is an intensifying Tropical Storm forecast to be a Cat 1 and thought to be possibly Cat 2 by many so pay attention. For South Carolina/North Carolina border towns as always hurricanes like to go to Wilmington but if I was a hurricane I'd raather go to Myrtle Beach, that said I love Myrtle Beach so I hope it doesn't go there.  NC up tothe VA line especially the Outer Banks always expect a hurricane will cross their beautiful beaches so I know you are all watching it.

Up the Coast. As in Mid Atlantic to New England. You will see tons of images online and lots of ClickBait promising you a blend of Hurricane Sandy and the 1938 Hurricane. Don't click on it. It is possible it could find it's way all the way up to Cape Cod. I can't say right now and not sure anyone can tell you for sure this far out. But this is definitely one to watch. I asked Rob from www.crownweather.com for analog storms and he said Bob and Carol so let's hope Ted and Alice don't show up also. Okay, bad joke. I'm tired. This could be one that does threaten NE and points in between.

Or it curves away off shore of Florida, clips OBX ..touches the tip of Long Island and moves past Boston fast. It's just too soon to be sure. You have the NHC Cone so unless something begins to change, stick with it and keep checking it every 6 hours.

I'll be on in the morning and we all will, everyone you trust online and TWC will be on nonstop and NHC is always watching the storm on multiple screens using all the methods they use to give you the best forecast. The problem is sometimes tricky storms throw a kink in the plan and ISAIAS has been tricky and hard to figure from day one so I don't see a reason to believe that won't change.

Stay tuned.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.