11 PM. Tropical Storm ISAIAS Forms. Finally After Much Discussion and Many Models and Hours of Waiting. It's a Boy! Cone Has Florida In It. Does ISAIAS Take a Florida Vacation Or..........Curve Offshore Heading for OBX? Stay Tuned.

Tropical Storm ISAIAS Forms.

Finally.

Watches and Warnings up.

As for Florida and Cuba....

... pay attention.

Let's start over in the morning.

I'm concerned on the timing.

But more on that tomorrow.

And let's see what it looks like in the morning.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

ISAIAS

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps...to the person who let me know to watch YouTube.

Thank you, it relaxed me so much.
I do so love geography and geology!!

5 PM.
No upgrade yet.
The Cone Below.

Official NHC Cone above.

The NRL Cone below

Loop



Oh by the way there is a new wave coming off of Africa.

Remember this frame below in particular.
Note the moisture off the SE Coast currently there.
It's eroding the High's hold just a bit.
The High tops to the NE of our system is too.
Don't watch the "center'
Watch the dance that is going on.
Slowly it's trying to lift towards that area.
And slowly that area is trying to erode the High.
How far West this system gets is debateable.
But it depends on the High's ability to block it.
It may open up briefly then snap shut again.
It's a tropical drama played out in real time.

3 competing centers?
Which one wins out.
I have a friend who insists the North one will.
Another friend insists the Southern one.
I'm just enjoying the show, loop by loop.

Last image from that loop.

Hmnnn Ummmnn

Curerntly low confidence in any model ...

...or forecast.

Many intangibles but at some point it forms.

At some point it turns more to the North...

...if it can squeeze it's way into the High.

Before continuing with this blog I want to make this clear as it's relevant this year. In a discussion with Mayors on TWC just now the Mayor of Miami made it clear that when people come to a shelter they are asked questions regarding Covid, if someone has tested postitive for Covid they will do their best to isolate them as much as possible. That's big, that for many is a game changer as many dislike going to shelters for many reasons. If you are one those people please be sure now that your Aunt Louisa or your best friend Dorothy can let you stay with her during the storm if you need to isolate. Do not assume. To be honest every person, friend or family member has their own health priorities and they may hate to tell you no but have to because their mother or Grandparent is alrady staying with them. It's just life. Do not assume you have a place to go because you don't want to go to a shelter this hurricane season. A shelter is better than staying in a building that could get washed away in storm surge. I'm not talking this storm I am talking the whole season.........this is an ongoing problem of 2020. NC just canceled the State Fair after trying to find a way to do it safely and well that happened. Be it the I storm or the K storm or the M storm at some point you may need to evacuate and if you might need to because you are in a low lying area or live on a barrier island do not assume you can find a place to go .... figure it out NOW. That said..........let's move on to our Potential Tropical Cyclone. 

Just some thoughts on the Tropical Soap Opera of PTC9 aka ISAIAS should the NHC ever upgrade it. Being silly, humor is important with these sort of systems that look fantastic but that aren't quite ready for Prime Time.

My thoughts on

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm)

And one more video with some thoughts on just how huge and impressive this is in scope and size.

Just take in the largeness of this system. Listen to my thoughts. Just watch don’t look for a center. Look at the whole package. Impressive.

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm)

Model madness as everyone tries to figure out what's going on with our tropical systerm of the day, of yesterday and the day before and tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. I know it reminds of us those long ago Invests that wouldn't form but kept promisng, dangling the promise a bit more every day then shrinking back and staying just under designation status. Strong wind, blobby shape and intense tropical rain in multiple blobs and the elusive West Wind couldn't be found. For a system to be closed off they need to find a West Wind, unless of course they use some other measurement because planes aren't available to go into the storm; or something pops up fast and they upgrade as fast and pull the plug in less than 24 hours. The NHC can be good at what they do but they have been somewhat inconsistent of late in the varoius ways they choose to designate a system with a name. That's all I'll say on that.

So going to look at some models today and sharing links with you as I wish to keep the blog shorter rather than longer today. I generally don't like to do the models because honestly every kid online does nothing all day but show incredible images of the ever changing models and they are ever changing until we have a designared cetner. Once we have a real center, and we do not have one at 5 PM then our models can at times me garbage in and garbage out. They just change faster than you can keep up with them, the main thing is to watch the trend when the trend maintains itself over say 12 to 24 hours vs flip flopping ever six hours.  So below I give you some of the models for what they are worth.

When you turn on the 850 MB relative vorticity you see what should be the vortex of the system.
I say should because where it is ... is still up for discussion, but it's based on that model run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2020072912&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Here and then it continues on... 

This version of the EURO takes it up over various islands, up towards Florida and the travels up the coast towards NC/VA and heads on up the coast to NYC and NE faster than you can say "What the heck???"

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2020072912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

There is where we are today.

At some point it shows the GFS...

...trying to squeeze thru the Mona Passage.

Many storms have done that so... who knows.

Then time goes by and we see that below.

Other than the lady with the pretty blue green eyes and painted lips is that the HIGH is huge and doesn't really want to open up that much. It may open up as the Low that's been anchored near the coast of the Carolinas or over the Carolinas moistens up that part of the ridge and the top part of the huge envelop that is whatever the name it is .... moistens up the ridge from the South and tries to make a small path to move North as all tropical systems would prefer to move North towards the Poles if they can as that is how they are programmed. 

Squeezes through like a child pushing into a crowd.

But the high snaps shut again.

And it runs out of steam.

On this particular model run.

The GFS above is similar to the Euro but it sort of loses it after Florida as if it's not interested in going up to NJ or NY let alone NE right now. It could of course change it's mind later. Models have that license to change every model run.

There is the short term NAM that only goes out a few days. Oh look it shows it coming into view on the end of it's short term run.

Then there's the CMC and the ICON

And an endless parade of models.

Each trying to be better than the other.

They are just tools we use.

Tools to verify what we see may happen.

Some models take it across the Islands seemingly unimpressed by Hispaniola.
It cruises along the Florida Beaches up towards OBX.
Could happen but I have questions.
Would it end up here after all that?
Well many of them do.
Why not?

In truth there are a lot of reasons it could do other things but in the end no matter what the models show from run to run it is going to go where it can go as only Major Hurricanes can make their own steering currents or rather reinforce the direction they are moving in and other storms wait to see if the High has a hiccup that allows it to make a run for a small break in the ridge. But it's late July and it's hot and I live here in North Caroina where we have had daily heat alerts and thunderstorms when the temperature gets up in the 90s and fronts are barely fronts yet they do juice up the moisture a bit so that could infact send out a calling card to ISAIAS unless somehow it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico and then there are more options on the board. That option is on the table but history shows they usually trace the coast or threaten the coast so keep all options on the table and keep preparing your hurricane kit as you will need it again and again later this hurricane season. Hopefully you never have to use it.

Do not lose your mind over a far away system that is far from where you live but could come to where you live. You watch your favorite local weather people, you follow your favorite on air people and you wait and see what happens. You know it's there and knowledge is power so use that power and get a plan set to go and to put into action fast should this interesting, hard to predict system comes your way. And being 2020 and watching how Hanna blew up close to the coast exceeding expectations always allow that it could be one category more than it is in a forecast. If they say high end Tropical Storm prepare for a Cat 1 and if they say Cat 1 then prepare for a Cat 2 and well you get the idea.

As always please refer to www.spaghettimodels.com he lives and breathes to bring you the models and he's the best for a Pasta Buffet ..no germs, no calories you can use them whenever you want and he has many models there to choose from if you wish to run the models vs just looking at the images posted from several sites including www.tropicaltidbits.com so enjoy and make sure you catch is Faceboo Lives; Mike is a great talker, loved listening to his thoughts for a long time and he gets better with time, experience and age. He's like a fine wine or a good shot of Jack in your Coca Cola ;)

Please look thru the previous blog from earlier today, this one really went long on models as people have asked me about the models and my thoughts. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

On Twitter mostly weather and on Instagram whatever... weather and music and make up and my meal of the day or whatever is on my mind while not staring at loops online. I'll add a song later when I can think of one that fits my mood.  Or you can just sent me your favorite song!