Hurricane Warnings Up for Florida, Tropical Storm Warnings for Miami Though Things Change Fast and Often with ISAIAS. NC State of Emergency Declared

This is a good guide for wind speed

It's from the NRL

small circle TS winds.

Larger circle Hurricane Winds.

It follows the Cone but it's a good grahic.

Please be aware in the South Florida area for all the people living in Aventura in highrises or in the North Miami Beach area you are close to the line as storms don't stop at Hallandale Blvd, it's a guide to use so if you are within that area in the Dade Broward Line treat this as if you are getting a hurricane. And I'm sure tomorrow this will be updated throughout the day on Saturday but I'll be offline and wanted to give this information now.  Stay safe, stay inside avoide debris that could fly in the stronger gusts ... better safe than sorry as the saying goes.

First off it's worth saying we have been watching this storm for days after it rolled off of Africa as a larger than normal tropical wave. It has been consistenty inconsistent and often hard to pin down it's exact center or strength. The speed was faster than it has been and as people who have been reading my blog and Tweets on Twitter will remember I have always had issues with the forecast in that I do believe the High is stronger than expected. The high has been strong and the trof is weak and as a minimal hurricane ISAIAS will take the more westerly route and stay within the Western side of the NHC Cone. And, as always if models change or ISAIAS strengthens they will up their intensity or nudge their cone on the next advisory, nothing here is set in stone. So far they insist most of Miami will be okay putting up Hurricane Watch for Hallandale Beach which is basically the first beach city in Broward County ... one block from Dade County. Hey I guess they have to draw the line somewhere. 

Botton Line is prepare to deal directly with ISAIAS in one way or another ane hope and pray the NHC forward speed forecast verifies and this does not begin to feel the strength of the high making it slow down more. I'm more worried on the strength of the high than various shear discussions. If it's core is stacked it will be cruising slowly over 90 degree water and it can intensify very close to land .. practically over the beach so prepare for the worst, hope for the best and know more will show up later this hurricane season so look at ISAIAS as a dress rehearsal. 

There is also TD 10 but it's far away and not a player now.

Back to ISAIAS 

Models for ISAIAS below from

www.tropicaltidbits.com

You can see why the NHC moved the cone West.

When you go to the NHC...

...please check out their Interactive Cone.

Literally goes down to your street level.

Let's you know of what watches or warnings you may have.

Please use it ... it's a good product.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205732.shtml?gm_track#contents

A good Tweet by Craig Setzer above.

His concerns were realized a while later.

When the NHC did nudge the Cone a bit.

Phil makes it clear here what to do.

Prepare for Tropical Storm Force Winds.

Tropical Storm Force Winds can do a lot of damage.

Trust me, really. 

Power can go out if a tree snaps.

Or someone drives into a Power Pole blinded by a squall.

Stay inside do not drive about!

And in my neck of the woods.

I watch Brittany Bell often, she's very good.

So yes we are all watching ISAIAS

ISAIAS could impact SC beach towns before NC.

And it is currently forecast to have inland impacts.

Tho ...often that changes.

But just telling you if you need to go shopping...

...do it now not later just in case.

So here we are Friday Afternoon and everyone wants to know what is going to happen with ISAIAS and the truth is no one can tell you exactly 100% what it will do as it has to hit certain benchmarks or hurdles before the next one.  First comes what happens in South Florida and the maddening part about this is no one is sure but they are leaving the door open for more direct impacts than they thought last night. Everyone wants to know about Miami and all I can say is expect to get tropical storm force winds and fast moving cells that fly through strong gusty winds. What do I mean by that? If you think nothing is happening and decide you NEED to go out for coffee or something and suddenly a squall comes through moving fast at you with 50 mph winds and debris slams into your windshield (could be worse...) so yeah that can happen. You can have heavy rain, localized flooding and the mango tree laden with mangoes can go flying in the wind.. or at least a branch of the mango tree. I'm serious you got to do what you got to do in today's world to protect yourself, your family and your property. Stay on top of the official sources and check with any updates from the NHC regarding South Florida direct impacts. 

As for the Space Coast this could be a much more direct hit and if the storm stays out over the Atlantic over the very hot waters of the Gulfstream they could have a rare landfalling hurricane. Think similar to Matthew but not as strong and not as much storm surge. Probably it clips the Cape but as everything with this storm seems to happen at the last minute unexpected, expect the unexpected.

Up the Coast meaning the beautiful area from Daytona Beach to the Carolinas expect a better than average chance of getting a tropical visitor.   North Carolina has a State of Emergency officially and we are expecting something.  It's 2020 right?

I'll update Saturday Night late til then stay on top of any late changing issues concerning 

Stay on top of everything at www.spaghettimodels.com and his Facebook Lives. He is excellent and covers the storm from many angles.  And as always check with your local forecasters as they best know your localized concerns and hwo to best prepare for a landfallng Hurricane or Tropical Storm.

Sorry for any typos..  have the worst sinus headache today. Maybe it's a migraine.. maybe it's concern on my kids in Miami and everyone I know calling me to ask what I think. Or just the weather, it's been beastly hot in North Carolina. 28 of the 31 days had a Heat Alert... usually that is followed by a hurricane or two. Just my thoughts. 

Stay safe!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram. 

Ps.. I am offline for the Jewish Sabbath until Saturday after dark Raleigh time so I'll be back online then.Stay safe!!