ISAIAS CRAWLING ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST ... Looking to Visit New Places Along It's Way North. Is ISAIAS Coming to Your Town Soon? High Stronger than Expected As I Said Previously.
You may read the discussion below.
I gave my thoughts in the blog.
Hope they fix that mispelling of ISAIAS.
The struggle is real I get it!
11 PM.
NW at 9 MPH.
70 MPH Winds.
Slowing down...
...that's forcast forward speed.
More on that in the blog below.
There's an old song with some corny lyrics about "so here we are" not sure if it's Fred Astaire about to break out into a song and dance or someone else but it's still true "so here we are" and we are where I knew we would be and on some level good to know I wasn't wrong but the majority of the models that insisted the high wouldn't be that strong were wrong. And, if you measure models that don't match up to what you see on the water vapor loop along with the knowledge you have of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms you would know that the High was stronger than the models showed it would be and though it's nice to get validation from weather balloons in Jacksonville Florida it was a done deal that we would be here with a struggling Tropical Storm sitting over the Gulfstream barely moving pulsing up at it's sidekick mid level center while the naked swirl that is the center (looking beautiful on visible) was edging closer to Florida and now located over the hot waters of the Gulfstream. Luckily some upwelling will hold that where it is it seems but I'm concerned about the warm waters off the SE Coast where ISAIAS is headed.
Ironically the water is hotter off the SC/NC coast.
Sure ISAIAS not moving at 12 MPH..
...took a bite out of the water temps.
I said many times on this blog that I didn't not feel it would be moving that fast and that it could slow down over the warm waters close in, offshore. I said that Florence would stall long before Florence stalled and that's not because I have a Tropical Ouija Board but because I know hurricane history and I know the locations they are liable to stall and can see that coming on the Water Vapor Loop. Models are great I love having them but when they smell like bad sushi you gotta throw them out and think for yourself watching the storm, the water vapor loop and the progression of fronts and the dips in the atmosphere and you have to look at CLIMO and the time of the year. Andrew did not catch the strong cold front on August 22nd or there about as it was still August and not that strong and even though Andrew was then a weak storm the high was obviously building in blocking an escape. Andrew and Florence are two examples but I could go on and on so I'll stop and just remind people that models need to be checked against reality of what is and what has always been. Climo almost always wins.
What this image shows is the ridge of the High over it.
High pressures to it's North.
The front back over to the NW.
And there ISAIAS sits and spins.
Yes, there is also dry air.
There has always been dry air.
It's reached the edge of the High...
... has a bit of a cap over it.
That's ISAIAS at 10 PM Saturday Night.
It should pick up speed eventually.
When the High let's it move.
Speaking of Hurricane History in 1926 in the last week of July a Hurricane formed in a similar location to where ISAIAS began it's history officially, moved along a similar path tracking into the Bahamas and made landfall in early August North of the Miami-Palm Beach area. Miamians were warned about a West Indies Cyclone on it's way and there was some damage in Miami but nothing more than tree limbs down and some shanty town buildings; everyone called it a "tree trimmer" and carried on happily filled with a false sense of security that Miami could easily weather a cyclone and they got back to selling swamp land and building up Boom Town communities and the dance of the Roaring 20s roared on. Then in September a dangerous West Indies Cyclone moved towards Miami and warnings were put out and the Hurricane Flag was put up by the Weather Bureau downtown but no one took it seriously. After the Great Miami Hurricane roared into town and smashed up homes, killed people, destroyed lives and businesses the people who stayed in Miami and rebuilt never laughed of a hurricane again. I grew up as a little girl every year in the Synagogue listening to old timers talk on "the Hurricane" when it would rain and it rains often during the Jewish New Year in September and I'd listen to their stories and watch the fear in their eyes as they stared at the rain beating against the windows.
I sure hope that history does not repeat and after a weak storm wanders near Miami, crawling past towards a date with destiny possibly further North up the coast like the July 1926 hurricane did that it is not followed by a Major Hurricane. Miami, the Florida Keys, Broward and Palm Beach cannot ignore hurricanes that come later in the Hurricane Season, ISAIAS could have been a dress rehearsal for what is to come later in the year if the pattern remains the same, the way it remained the same in 1926 with hurricanes tracing a large High Pressure that ended just near Florida. Below you can see the earlier storm (yes they are different) and the Great Miami Hurricane in September. 1926 was a hellish hurricane year in the Caribbean and the Atlantic. Hurricanes smashed into Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas and those were different hurricanes. Way back before Global Warming and stations hyping them into COVIDCANES but still the same tropical weather in a year ripe for busy activity.
Yeah every which way Mother Nature could...
I'll update on Sunday.
I'm still in the Cone in Raleigh.
I'm savoring that.
Usually that cone gets yanked away...
...and melts before you can eat it.
We will see.
Could happen.
Note the 1926 Hurricane did keep going.
Will ISAIAS keep going?
Because all along the Eastenr Seaboard everyone is watching.
It's as if it's hoping on a Train North Bound.
Seeing the sites along the way.
Time will tell.
Sunday I will write about Appalachian Hurricanes.
Or more so... flooding and impacts from storms..
...that went inland hooking up with the trough.
That could give rare inland impacts...
..vs just beach scenes at the coast.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:54 PM
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