Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, August 02, 2020

UPDATED! 11 PM -ISAIAS FINALLY MOVING - Tropical Saga Goes On. Tropical Storm Sitting Off Florida Planning on Visiting the Carolinas Next (ps Georgia too.. Tybee Should Be a Great Place To See It Up Close Sailng By Towards Cities to the North.

ISAIAS is moving, finally!
Compare and contrast with track below.
Not much difference, is there?



Check out those warnings.


Because of it's forecast fast forward speed.
There are warnings and watches up the coast.
I always point out Widn Probs.
This is a graphic below that shows the probs.
It's a good product the NHC puts out.


Obviously the purple, reds and gold are higher chances.
Yellow still strong probabilities.
Green less so but still there.


Understand this is MMIC.
It's not a visible satellite imager.
It measures precipitable moisture.
N Central Florida had strong weather today.
Way stronger than anything Miami got.


Small chance Josephine can come along.
If it does it follows ISAIAS...
... will see.
Not a big player but there.

ISAIAS is on the move.

BUT........check out Africa.

Lastl ythere are 2 beautifulw wave near Africa.
Both show signs of a spin.. 




Finally.
But how fast will it move Monday?
Some models show rapid movement.



Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm.
We will see what Monday brings......
...as in any chances or surprises.
I do think this could get it's wings back...
...and become a hurricane briefly!

****

Cone below is from 11 AM



So Isaias is still almost attached to the State of Florida barely moving in actuality though that will change soon enough. I know, it seems forever. The problem with the forecast was not the track but the timing and the intensity. I have said nonstop that the timing was off and that if you get the timing off it directly is related to strength and location and then the forecast is off. It's sat here off Florida pretty much since Friday evening and today it's Sunday morning. It has crawled a bit more today as it struggled with the huge High that slowly eroded but would not let it let it go North along the coast to those other beautiful Florida Beaches. Because the timing was off the first trof that was supposed to grab it lost it and left it down there and now we are waiting for the stronger one digging down that will grab it dance with it and create lots of rain over areas prone to flooding. Depending on which track it takes, when it actually moves (all in timing) it slides across Eastern NC or it cuts into the coast further south around South Carolina and travels like a tourist up I-95. Whether it's a serious Tropical Storm or briefly a Hurricane again or just tropical moisture it will surge up into many cities and places not used to those soaking rains accompanied with gusty winds. And, in areas along the Piedmont where the land is hilly and rivers exist and towns were built along the rivers for navigation and powering mills ....those areas could have a flooding threat. Add in the chance of tornadoes or severe weather accompanying ISAIAS on his journey up the Eastern Coastline.


My thoughts this morning in videos.


How silly do you want  me to be this morning?
I made this first thing this morning.
Went on to Facebook see if Mike was on...
...then remembered Softball Sunday
(he's a good father)



Then tuned the world out a bit.
Looped... 



This is what I look like after a lot of looping.
It's a pic from last year.
Disclaimer I was hoping for a snow storm...
....looped way too long.
We went out for drinks.
Bourbon Mule.
I was done looping.
Just staing listening to live music.
That is what too much looping does to you.

So as for the 11 AM from the NHC. They claim it's moving NNW at 8 MPH (remember that's forecast speed) and it's now 65 MPH strong and has a minimum pressure of 995 MB. I'll translate their discussion you can get on their website, as always I urge you to read it, they spend a lot of time going over ever word as words matter explaining their forecast and cone. 

1. Yes, they see the convection that developed again recently NE of the center.
2. Yes, it has an "impressive mid-level circulation"
3. It jogged NW because of number one and number two.
4. They are watching it on Melbourne Florida radar.
5. Recon is going in again later this afternoon.
6. Slow movement to the NNW in the short term then it acceratles away from Florida.
7. Model discussion .. you can read what they say. They take a consensus.
8. ISAIAS remains over the warm Gulfstream where the water is HOT.
9. In "36 hours or so" it will make landfall in the CarolinaS. (they didn't choose one...)

My reliable sources on Twitter.
For North Carolina.



The NHC does NOT forecsast it to be a hurricane again. So it's a minimal storm cruising along liek Grandma and Grandpa on a trip up A1A in their old, but reliable clunker because they always wanted to do that trip once retired and aren't in any rush to get there. At some point they get bored, jump back on I95 and speed back off towards home.   Understand? I hope so.

Hurricane History. Note this is NOT a hurricane and we are not expecting this sort of flooding, but it's good to remember what elevation and river basins can deal with especially in the days before the NHC.

https://www.ourstate.com/flood-of-1916/

https://www.ourstate.com/the-deluge-of-1940/

If you have ever lived in North Carolina or wanted to or traveled to the Biltmore or our beaches you may want to subscribe. They put out issues when no one did back during the beginning of the Covid crisis when Publix was still selling February issues in April of whatever they had left to sell. Our State Magazine perservered and presented us with inspirational stories from the past and with hopes for the future. Well done. https://www.ourstate.com/

Again both these articles are in one of the best magazines ever put out that is worth getting even if you are living in Alaska, but expecially if you are a Southerner because they speak to your heart. I have to tell you I don't geek out on science but I do geek out on good writing. I can sit with their magazine and a cup of coffee or Sweet Tea and be half way through before I realize my coffee is cold or my Sweet Tea isn't cold anymore. They have some of the best writers and those writers just write their hearts out and you get sucked in and swirl away somewhere remembering your own memories at the beach or the Farmer's Market or watching snowflakes falling in the moonlight. Awesomeness you can't get nearly anywhere else though Southern Living tries mind you, but Our State is truly the best!


You can find him on Facebook.
He's everywhere but he can write more there ;)

That said I sometimes get jealous of iCyclone's ability to write more than I do his chasing the eye and he's in an odd spot this year because he's way too wise to travel around the world during a Pandemic in search of a hurricane's eys so being the history geek he is he rented a house in the heart of Hurricane Country that has been through many hurricanes and like him survived. So he's most likely annoyed because he knew this storm wasn't a storm to chase but hey it's 2020 so no rules and fly by the seat of your pants half the time right? Well, carefully that is.

Lastly I want to point out what is obvious. ISAIAS was never stacked well and yet somehow as a mess it moved across the Atlantic, pushing dry air out of it's way carrying with it multiple centers who were like groupies staying with him in rented mansions along the way partying every night and then sleeping late and although looking crappy in presentation they pulled it together enough to make it through the Islands, over Hispaniola and partly through the Mona Passage then tried the Old Bahama Passage route along Cuba (obviously in no rush to go anywhere) and now they are sampling the Florida beaches before picking up speed and heading for pecans and peaches in Georgia and the Carolinas. Stay tuned for this ongoing tropical saga today.  I'm going out and going to ignore it for the rest of the day. Well as best as I can ignore anything tropical.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps ...for those who have asked my kids are okay in Florida they didn't even go to the beach as they normally do. Miami kids know what's a real storm. TWC can play it up with beautiful videos and live shots that yes I enjoy but not really much going on. Thanks for asking...  here's a song that shows my mood and what I'm thinking ... enjoy! Stay safe. Socially Isolate while doing what you got to do today. And have fun along the way!!!

posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:33 AM

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