10 % Yellow Cicle West Bound Atlantic Wave... Clean Up Going on from ISAIAS. Power Outages Continue. Death Toll Climbs. Do Hurricane Preparation This Weekend Please... Josephine Will Form Soon Enough... Too Soon.

Woke up this morning early.

Checked the NHC.

Bit annoyed there was no yellow circle.

But figured maybe later today.

Shortly after I made this video...

...it got a yellow circle.

Low chances currently of 10%

But if it keeps firing up....

...it's chances should go up.

If not they will happily pull the plug.

All up to the wave now.....

#FridayThoughts on tropics #weekend plans? How bout find a generator u can afford or get some old school sterno or a small gas camping stove?? pic.twitter.com/enheLciUG0

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 7, 2020

Generally quiet time in the tropics.

The wave crossing the Atlantic has 10% yellow.

A wave in the Caribbean is Westbound.

A frontal boundary is draped across the SE.

Especially draped over Florida.

And it's covered me today in gray skies.

I want to talk less on models this morning and more on what just happened as Isaias is gone, but his legacy has carried on and on as people try and clean up the debris, wait for their power to get turned back on and many are waiting to have trees removed from their houses, rooftops and over their crushed cars.  I know you are thinking maybe on the places near Ocean Isle Beach where it came ashore in North Carolina that are covered in sand and remnants of storm surge. I'm talking about the serious impact it had up in the Mid Atlantic and even more so perhaps New England. States rarely impacted to such a degree by tropical events were pounded and slammed to the ground as Isaias got his name up there with Bob and Carol and many other names people up in that region remember from generation to generation as stories are shared with family members about the Big One that took out their power for a week, crushed the convertible and took out the big Elm Tree. Well, the Elm Tree probabnly took out the convertible first, but you know what I mean.

Nothing specific happening today but models are spitting out lots of possible solutions and people online are hung up on a Gulf of Mexico storm that is plausible, however many thought Isaias would be that GOM storm and it went up the East Coast. I am sure the Gulf of Mexico will get a hurricane and possibly a Major Hurricane but will it be August 16th and 17th or the last week in August? Plausible and probable in one form or the other. And, not all hurricanes have the same form or shape. Amazingly sometimes a weak, small Category 1 Hurricane well wrapped forming close in can do less damage than a wandering Invest that became a Potential Tropical Storm that became a Tropical Storm and then a Hurricane after a long trip from Africa in a huge moisture bubble the size of Texas can do much  more damage than that weak Cat 1 Hurricane. Messy tropical systems such as Isaias are prone to multiple impacts aside from storm surge such as tornadoes and flooding across a wide area. Wrapped up small impacts a town or two horribly, and Isaias like storms can impact swaths of a whole region especially if they act more like a hybrid and carry the punch of a Noreaster with heavy tropical rain added to the crazy winds.  Think on that a bit.

There's a wave over Africa that I'm watching.

Shows signs that it could spin coming off.

And there's a wave that left Africa...

...but has no yellow circle.

Yet it's maintained convection.

And there is SAL there so .........

....any wave that doesn't die from SAL is a problem.

One thing about these waves this year that makes them more impactful is they have been beautifully spaced and they do not seem to crash into eachother as happens in some years. That equally distanced space allows each particular pouch to try and develop. And what's interesting is the wave that left Africa has the same shape as the one coming off. Yes, I can see shapes as I've watched them long enough. Shape in that IF it devleoped it would have a beautiful shape aesthetically creating a long tail and upper NE Quandrant but that's getting way ahead of the game now as it's still over Africa and the other one is swimming in the same conditions that produced Isaias meaning SAL is out there, yet in the case of ISAIAS it kept it small and struggling and got West enough to be a player and a hurricane that is remembered for years to come as it knocked out power to millions of people and is responsible for killing 9 people at this point.

Odd karmic thought here is that ISAIAS is the Spanish spelling for the prophet ISAIAH. You know what is in a name? Perhaps it was a messenger of sorts to shake us up and take this hurricane season seriously because as bad as a wayward tropical event mixing with a frontal boundary and a Jet Streak was... a Category 3 or 4 or even a 5 barreling towards the East Coast or Florida (either coast of Florida) or along the Gulf of Mexico with another Cat 5 slicing through the Caribbean at the same time as we did when the tropics brought us Irma and Harvey and Maria and well you get the message here hopefully. Prepare, get a plan and double check your traveling arrangements to make sure you can stay at Aunt Martha the way you normally do, because she may have her grandchildren there or her older sister already staying there. This is not the year to assume anything.

A strong PS to the reminder that waves over Africa are going to come off spinning soon with Lows attached to them and if indeed that happens... we are going to have Major Hurricanes. Yes, they can be fish storms but the High has been relentless and propelling them towards the Islands and the US coast as well as Cuba and the Yucatan and all those tropical ports of call and if you want to tell me "but Hispanoila" please remember it did not hit Isaias with a sucker punch did it? No, it did not. It may have saved Florida from a strong hurriane but it didn't spare the Carolinas or the Mid Atlantic or the Northeast. Remember that.

#ps #African #tropical #wave has some serious #mojo. pic.twitter.com/iU5HiCK8uz

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 7, 2020

This article was written in 2013, it's a history article and it shows you the strength of Labor Day Hurricanes.

https://weather.com/news/news/labor-day-hurricanes-20120902

My advice is this year make two sets of plans; Plan A is for what you want to do and Plan B is for what you will have to do if a tropical visitor comes to visit you!

Sweet Tropical Dreams vs nightmares... always wishing you sweet dreams,

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps...



Tidbit for anyone still here. I had a Librarian in High School who had a kind of crush on me, he was a cool dude very young and he wrote the lyrics to this song in my year book. I think he left to actually go to Africa and find out more about where his family came from but it's always been a good memory. It made me laugh, who writes lyrics in a yearbook? Okay, I was kind of popular, smart and cute and spend an inordinate time in the library with passes to get out of class and work on projects with a best friend or wander the stacks talking to a random boyfriend. Good times.
 
Then there was this crazy wild, smart kid who sat next to me in some honors class and he loved to go into the libray quietly and take out classics one by one. The last day of school after we officially graduated he returned the whole 21 volumne set of Plato which oddly they never noticed was missing. I had fun in highschool and met some very interesting awesome kids who I'm still friends with to this day and oddly became closer with a few I knew but didn't know well over the years again. Life is interesting isn't it? The hurricane rhyme goes... June too soon, July too early, August Look Out and September Remember..... once heard a cute guy read that to me and I'll always remember him standing there reading from his little book even though he knew it by heart. We all know it by heart but in 2020 in October it's not all over.  A generator? Sterno works still! Camping Gas Stove? Think on it!


oh and don't forget ... September Remember..........