Invest 95L Has 60% Chance of Forming Anytime Now. Looking Good Today But Can It Make the Grade Down the Road?

Showing you this one at the top above.

Some people seem confused which one is 95L

Now you know for sure if you were unsure.

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60% anytime that it gets an upgrade.

Remember that means it could be a 5 PM.

or tomorrow or the next day.

NHC makes that decision.

Below is the Tropical Atlantic in motion.

Again remember the X is in the middle cluster.

At www.spaghettimodels.com u can choose your loops.

Data on shear and water temeprature galore.

Bottom right moving fast towards bottom middle.

We have fast moving Invest 95L.

A new wave emerges off of Africa.

Note the wave in the Caribbean. Rememebr that.

I'm not in love with this Invest.

It bugs me. 

It has propulsion problems.

Lots of colorful convection.

But possibly in the wrong places.

Spin visible, it wants a name.

But does it only have short term plans?

Does it have long term plans?

It has hurdels to get past.

See the spotted, dotted shades of blue North of it?

That's SAL.

So does it stay low or go high?

Moving fast like ISAIAS.

Also a similar dysfunctional structure.

Bad but looking good also.

Models show it lifts.

How much is the issue?

I do think this will get some designation and probably the name Josephine, but I'm split on whether it can do the job down the road. Many insist it will be a Fish (meaning it will recurve up into the ocean and swim vs landfall) or it lifts enough to be a concern then does the High snap back and it returns to a more western movement? I'm not sold on the High yet either.  Does a Low coming off of Carolina moving out into the ocean scoop it up and swim out to sea with it or??  We are in a transitional period as August goes through it's phase of hot, cold, hot, cold, derecheo, hot, cold, front, front stalling, hot again. Mostly hot in the Southeast but we haven't gotten into that peiod where real cold air moves down with the fronts!  If it lifts more it has more of a chance, if it continues to stay South it classes with shear. Or it becomes a player down the road in a friendlier place.  The Saharan Dust is still there so basically we have ISAIAS Version 2.0. More waves roll off of Africa and yet we are in that wait and see mode today. Don't buy into any model, they promise solutions then often yank them back tomorrow. Now we really are in preparation  mode for September and October that will bring serious threats to our mental and physical welfare if the long term models are correct. 

Also look for close in homegrown trouble this time of year while staring at westbound tropical waves you may be surprised by something that pops up in your own backyard!!

I'll update later today if anything big happens. Intensity wise the majority of the models don't do anything big with it. They show it gets a name but no Cane fame unless things shake out differently down the road. Nice new wave. And where is that system that gets into the Gulf of Mexico everyone is waiting for even though the people on the East Coast peer ESE out towards the Wave Train and while all of this goes on the Midwest and the Plains have real weather makers.  And, what comes off of Carolina down the road? Hmmmnnn   A mystery coming in the wings?  Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Check back to yesterday's blog with some insteresting history trivia on years with similar patterns and some produced hurricanes while comets dazzled us in the skies or earthquaks shook us to our core making everyone wonder what was going on..  Did you know 2020 wasn't the only year when things got strange and stranger? It's easy to talk analog years from the last 20 years but way back in the 1600s, 1700s and oh my the 1800s. Charleston had an earthquake and a hurricane as did Jamaica that struck fear into those who worried the evil doing of the Pirates and their wenches was going to do everyone in living in that colorful place in that colorful time when ships laden with gold, silver and jewels were fair game for the fastest pirates on the high seas and then Mother Nature went and hit them with an earthquake and a strong hurricane. Yet, Jamaica is still there...  if you are bored Google some of those events especially that one in Jamaica or Charleston if you think 2020 has been so 2020.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2020/08/invest-95l-forms-51-earthquake-nc-been.html

Invest 95L wants to get on the road but which road does it take and where is it going/

Can it fight off the SAL the way it's big brother did recently? Time will tell.