Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, August 13, 2020

5 PM Josephine Update & Discussion on the Yellow Circle Off the Carolinas.... TD 11 Got the Name. Still Waiting on Upgrade to Josephine. Sure Looks Like it Should be Josephine.. What's Off the Coast of Carolina?


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40% chances of development.
Carolina spin.
Getting thunderstorms in Raleigh from the NE
...in August that doesn't ever happen.



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Grid from www.spaghettimodels.com
Reminding you to the left of the models...
...are shear models and such you may enjoy using.
5 PM is out from the NHC.



Josephine is now packing 45 MPH winds.
Track scenario still the same from the NHC.

Phil is my Miami meteorologist of choice.
He's good to follow in general.
But Miami people always watch with a TS down below.


Up the road in the Carolinas people are watching models.
Many look at this system and think Carolinas vs Florida.
He is another good meteorologist to follow!

I made this video for y'all so enjoy.


Everyone these days wants to know exactly what will happen to any named stytem as we live in a world of immediate gratification and a desire to control all the details believing we know everything. Maybe that's a bit judgemental but when student mets obsess for hours at 3 AM on whether a wave off of Africa will be a Major Hurricane or a Fish or end up in the Gulf of Mexico... they are obsessing and fantasizing. Only one meteorologist I have ever seen could take a wave off of Africa and practically nail which beach it would make landfall on and he's not around so models only offer suggestions. But we are getting better every day but really just enjoy the show. This is not a Major Hurricane about to slam some small island the way Maria did and yet because of it's location everyone along the Hurricane Coast is wondering and wants to know if they can strike this off their list of things to worry about. 

In truth over the next week we could have lightning storms that might strike down your 100 year old Oak Tree or another dereceho attack the corn crop or some other unexpected weather to make a bigger impact in your life than Josephine. Time will tell. It's in the area the NHC expected it to look good and that's happening now as it looks better this afternoon. It's forecast to hit an area of shear that stops that development, watch in real time and enjoy.


This is a very good loop to keep and use during the Hurricane Season especially, though it's great in the winter as well, as it covers a huge area you can move around in depending on what you are looking at.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12 

Currently everything seems on schedule for Josephine to recurve but will it go out to sea or loop or surprise us in some way. It's 2020 so just expect the unexpected and hope for the current track to play out and as for Kyle I wonder if that area off the Carolinas can be Kyle? 


The NAM shows this as a possibililty.
As it's close in and we are looking at the short term..
...don't roll your eyes...the NAM is good to go to.

The EURO shows something developing....
Sliding up the coast but off the coast.
What's left of Josephine follows a long.
Models differ on how long Josephine is around.


Honestly it's far out and still far away.
We have lots of time to look at models.
For now we have a distant Tropical Storm..
..and an area off the Carolinas to watch.
The NHC did put a yellow circle there.
I talked on it this morning using the song below.
It's on my local radar as I live in NC.
Been watching it.

Stay tuned...
...enjoy the blog.

Enjoyed listening to people's thoughts on Twitter today.
Decided I needed a day to unwind and relax.
Things go better with Coke...
add some Jack it's good too.
But good discussion among friends is the best!

Besos BobbiStorm
Ps... keep reading if you didn't do so already!





How bout that?
They did it.


Showing this image.
It's concerntrated but lacks ISAIAS huge bubble.
Note cluster of convection by the Carolinas.
I'd give it a yellow crayon personally.
NHC lately seems not to want to commit as much.
Hmnn maybe we will see.
An area worth watching.


Meanwhile my feed exploded with Josephine today.

My thoughts are as such. It's consistently come back every time it looked like it wasn't going to survive and those are the ones you generally need to watch. They don't all become wild, violent landfalling storms and sometimes they become pretty storms out in the open water not endangering anyone. But it's hard to count out a wave that under not the best conditions found a way to keep going and get a name.  It's that simple. Models are great but they can do loopy things and they can suddenly trend in a different direction like an ADD child who didn't show up at the appointed place to meet his parent. Happens. Florence was a fish storm that swam the entire ocean, Andrew was so weak the NHC constantly debating whether to downgrade it completely yet they didn't and it didn't take the dying cold front and it made history. Many do not...they just go their way and suddenly, oddly fall apart and that's what the NHC so far is selling in their discussion.  It unravels as it approaches areas where storms do not often fall apart. There is talk of a strong cold front dipping down but the timing doesn't match up completely but maybe and what is off the coast of the Carolinas? Time will tell. Hurricane Season 2020 an unfolding story told in chapters storm by storm, day by day so just follow along. And meanwhile please be prepared as it's always better to be prepared but especially in a Pandemic you don't want to be standing outside Trader Joes for an hour waiting to get in now do you?

Today is the anniversary of Hurricane Charley and many were taken by surprise with that storm because the media played up a landfall in Tampa so much that they forgot hurricanes can be unpredictable and a hurricane riding parrallel to the coastline only needs to make one or two sudden turns and suddenly Port Charlotte gets Charley and not Tampa. I wrote about that way back when the blog was apparently my means of working my way through a some what chaotic life when blogs were new and few few people were reading (luckily...  tho obviously one savy reader who knew I was talking about him ...so embarrassing that he called me up and called me out on it but we both know the truth on that one so I guess that's what blogs were for in 2004).

But I wrote a very good set of posts on how to prepare for hurricanes, especially if you have children, and trust me I had children and friends of my children living by me in those days and it was a real concern. Having been through Hurricane Andrew without electric for way over a week in the Miami Beach heat of late August I am an excellent source of information on this particular topic. Oh My God. In truth every time we went to a restaurant for take out I'd save the unsused mustard and mayo and the kids teased me until we had lots of mustard and mayo to use during a time when apparently I didn't buy that when shopping. I had mutliple babies in diapers, the goal was to buy diapers and Baby Wipes that are the best thing ever to buy as we now know they clean surfaces well besides your baby's butt. Just practical real advice and I may put it together in some cohesive form for later if when we have a hurricane threatening landfall again.

The bottom line here today is that things change and hurricanes can intensify rapidly and tracks can come undone as Georges refuses to pay attention to it's NHC forecast and rather than turning before the Islands, PR, Hispanoila and Cuba it just keeps going.  Don't say models were bad then, because back then they said the models were better than ever. Florence did not slam into the Carolinas as a Category 5 Hurricane, but it did Category 5 damage from flooding after a weaker version of it's old self parked itself off the coast and rained and rained and rained until the creeks rose and covered the roads and it did what Matthew did and the NHC said Matthew would make a huge loop back towards Florida and miss NC but they were wrong. BUT.......the NHC updates their cone every 6 hours so at some point they dropped the looping sceanario and life went on and watches and warnings were eventually posted and by the way Matthew went all the way to Virginia as far as flooding rains were concerned so know a Cone is never cut in stone it is merely moved a bit every 6 hours so watch the trend, pay attention to your local weather people who know the weather history and concerns of your area, pay attention to people you trust who have rarely steered you wrong and know that despite how far we have come in hurricane modelilng that Intensity forecasting is still the Holy Grail and we are not that good at it.


Trust me people from Port Charlotte know...
...hurricanes can change course fast.
And intensify just as fast.

A look at the Tropical Atlantic below.


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Blog from 9 AM from this point on.
...keep reading for info and Ps and song.

Looked like it should have been Josephine already...
...but no not as of 9 AM.
Note cluster of convection off the Carolinas.
More on that later... watching.


I woke up late.
No mention in WhatsApp on new named storm.
Talked to a few relatives fast.
Checked Mike's page.
Still 11... 
Looked at Twitter.

Wow when Jim is ready it should have a name.
I mean he's uber cautious.




And the beat goes on.





I'll update later today. Not much more to add. NHC claims they will name it but when they get around to it and thnk it's really worthy of a name. I don't know they are so inconsistent the NHC these days. That's really all I'll say. They threw away the name Dolly on what seemed like a strong, persistent thunderstorm that didn't last very long and they are hesitant to use the name Josephine for a system that has lasted longer than many early season systems and pulses up and down and keeps going without a name.  Had a boyfriend a while back before I got remarried and he loved to watch sports, basketball especially and he always talked on "home field advantage" and actually another guy I loved talking to used to talk on how baseball stadiums actually cut the grass a certain way to throw a pitcher off  so I guess it's true. I did baton more than cheerleading so what do I know? I know they were right and that rule still goes so NHC always has Home Field Advantage every day of Hurricane Season so until they are ready.....  everyone's got the car running outside waiting for Josie to figure out which color mask she wants in Victoria's Secret and eventually she will show up.


Not in love with wearing masks really.
My eyes tear up, my glasses fog up.
But if I'm gonna wear one... 
... want to wear a comfortable one.

That said I bought a black one with a little V on the side in pink.  Models are very iffy with TD 11 and yet most hold onto it and it's been stubborn and tenacious so I'm expecting at some point the NHC will validate their own forecast and we will have Josephine. Such a shame losing that great Dolly name ya know...

Much love.. 2020 is the year that screams "have patience" but I'm getting to the point that I don't want to but it is what it is.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Did i mention an area of persisetnt showers is congregating off the coast of the Carolinas?
Good mets in this area are watching and I posted the other day the possibility of a fast spin up off the coast close in according to then NOAA 7 Day Forecast Maps but they put it in, they take it out, they put it in... just watch the radar...

And oh as far as saying "sorry" I'm not really sorry I was in a bad mood for some reason... concerning that person I may have insulted but it's all good ... everyone got an Oscar in the end and some people have more second acts than Katrina and okay my Oscar is a little gold charm that I wear arond my neck sometimes that looks a lot like St. Peter or Christoper but it's an Oscar ;)  Enjoy the music, thanks if you are still reading........


posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:04 AM

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