Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

TD 11 Wants a Name... Josephine Will Be the Name. Next Step in a Busy Season and History Unfolding. And a Look Back at TWC



NRL has a map up for TD 11
TD 11 has a solid core.
Convection close to the center.




That screams give me a name.

12.2 N 42.9W
Moving W at 15 MPH
35 MPH Winds.
Cone continues consistently.

I know I say this often, so it must sound repetitive, but really you should read the discussion from the NHC at 5 AM. Stewart often writes excellent, descriptive discussion that unfolds like a beautiful rose with nuances, beautiful form and a sense of a history in the making. I don't mean history as in a Major Hurricane, I mean history as in a piece of the puzzle of Tropical Depression 11 that is forecast by the NHC to soon become Tropical Storm Josephine. Each individual storm is a piece of an unfolding puzzle that will be pieced together at the end and then the forecasters at the NHC will write up a review of those storms, looking back for posterity sake. It's all history...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/120900.shtml


Excellent discussion on the MJO
It ups the ante on tropical activity often.

The salient grid is the one below.
It draws a bullseye on our basin...
...going into the real heart of the season.


Purple in this case is not for the Royal Caribbean but for a crowning of sorts as one positive indicator after another piles up and this crowns the stack into a Royal Flush showing where and how tropical mischief can produce dangerous, strong, threatening Hurricanes. It's not a place you want to see the MJO be that particular week in an already busy Hurricane Season.


So add that extreme moistness....
...to warm water.
Low Shear.
MJO.

Bingo now you understand the forecasts.
But how will the forecasts verify?
That's watching history in real time.


TWC hads some tall chap on with Jim Cantore this morning and I was still half asleep.... but in my mind I saw Dave Schwartz and Jim Cantore's father doing the weather.Then I put my glasses on. Okay, giggling a little but Jim has aged beautifully and I suppose I have good memories of Jim and Dave working together at times and somehow the combination always made the weather more interesting.

Weather is always interesting.

Many of us "grew up" on TWC and their amazing ability to nail chemistry between on air partners who knew their meteorology and could express what they knew to the general public. Maybe it was the name in that I'd think "his name is Schwartz?" and he looked like a lot of the kids I knew in school in Honors English who talked fast, excitedely with theories that were brillant and playful. Then you had Jim, who I will always remember from his early days covering Hurricane Andrew, with his incredible voice and vocabulary, always articulate describing the passionate side of weather as a counter point to Dave who might break out in a tap dance.  Golden days of 24 hour a day coverage of the weather, what a concept!

When I was a kid staying in a hotel room in Miami Beach I loved how I could peer out the big plate glass windows with the beautiful view of the ocean and clouds and storms off in the distance and they had a closed circuit channel that showed the weather nonstop and told you how high the waves were and how strong the wind was and how hot the temperature was so the tourists were reminded they were in Miami Beach not Up North battling their way through the snow to work while on their tropical vacation. I was used to the view of the waves and the sky but wow a channel that just did weather all the time!

So now you know a bit more about me. During busy times I talk coordinates and Upper Levi Lows and dyamic changes in the struture of the core of a Category 3 Hurricane going into that classic buzz saw shape and discuss the dangers down the road as it tracks slowly West North West towards towns on the map that are filled with people worrying on that big major Hurricane with the hard to pronounce name. It's relatively quiet this morning and I can enjoy just writing a bit. Hope you don't mind.

Do not count this storm out. Never count out a storm that is just forming during an active season when the moisture is already juiced up and previous waves have found ways to fight off the shear and keep on moving. Just take em one at a time as we move down the line towards those names that will become famous for all the wrong reasons. Be prepared, theirs hot tropical moisture across the warm waters of the Tropical Atlantic.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram weather and what ever...

Enjoy I may not have time to be silly in the near future.



TWC History.....



and of course Dave O



and we all aged in real time...


posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:15 AM

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