Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, August 21, 2020

UPDATED 5 PM FRIDAY - What Will Be Tomorrow?? Tropical Drama 2020 - Will TD 14 and Laura Hook Up and Meet In the Middle or ..Play Follow the Leader??? -----Laura Forms From TD 13, Will TD 14 Get Upgraded to Marco? Stay Tuned. Gulf of Mexico Coastline & FL Under Attack From 2 Tropical Systems.

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1 last comment before I go.....


That's an extremely unfriendly environment
And everything changes fast in real time.
Will Laura hang on?
Will Laura come back?
Beginning to feel like 
General Hospital Tropical Unit.

As always follow the NHC
Check back often to see if they made changes.


Models. I promised model discussion.
Euro finally sees Laura.
And the GFS.
And the NAM.




5 PM.

Some videos with  my thoughts and ....
...some loops to watch.

This is the wide view.
Then I'll go in closer to each.



TD 14, stil 14 at 5 PM



Remember TD 15 Forecast movement is NW
Let's see if that verfiies.
It's further from land now to tip fo the Yucatan.
The Yucatan is FLAT there.
So it shouldn't impact it much.
We will see tomorrow what it's really got.
As it should be over hot water but shear.
And the nearness of Laura.

Look how close they are now.... 
Same latitude actually.


5 PM Cone.



And lastly my BOTTOM LINE








Next we have our Tropical Storm LAURA



I want to be clear about this in that when you have one storm you have to always watch for changes in the forecast, when you have two you have even more possibilities that something will change. When you are deep in the 3 Day Cone you can pretty much count on it. But 5 days out or more, much can happen especially with this set up. Late August gives us some of our worst hurricanes, think Katrina and Andrew so pay close attention to the NHC, your local meteorologists and any advice from your local government. Should they say to evacuate or start boarding up pay attention and jump into action. 

There are unique problems with this set up. So many IFs that I put on Twitter earlier. 
If one gets stronger than the other and the other follows the leader.
If they do some sort of modified fujiwara.
If one is weak and the mositure gets absorped into the other.
If they both have problems and not become hurricanes.
If they both become hurricanes.
If they track across land it could be weaker or slow down.
Laura could go over the back bone of Cuba then enter the Florida Straits.
Laura could avoid land, slice through the Florida Straits and rain on South Florida's parade.
TD 14 could stay weak and then wander into the GOM while Laura dawdles in Cuba.
TD 14 could come to life and explode in the GOM after the Yucatan.
TD 14 could fade away and the moisture could wrap into Laura.
Laura could fade away and TD 14 is the winner.
They could BOTH make landfall and win a prize for their place in history.

Really if you have ever fantasized about a job at the Hurricane Center... this should make you second guess that and stay with your day job. It's not a job for the faint of heart and the buck stops with them. If you mess up online you can pretend it never happened, maybe change your name again but the NHC has the buck stops here job.

That said there are many people online you know I trust and value their knowledge both on a global level and on a local level. Follow them and if they have a website that cost money to maintain feed them or as Mike says from www.spaghettimodels.com think of it as tip at your neighborhood restaurant. Sites that use servers and access paid sites for information have expenses. So keep that in mind.
www.tropicaltidbits.com  If u use his models and loops, tip him as Mike says.
Buy a tee shirt... maybe one with Hunter on it from www.spaghettimodels.com

Just saying they provide a valuable service and as always I'll be offline Friday Night through Saturday back online Saturday evening because I keep the Jewish Sabbath and that's my family time to relax, rest, pray, read and feel refreshed and hungry for information online.

Where is this going? Pretty sure landfall near @icyclone's huricane cottage is inevitable this season if not this one another one. But that's the end game regarding landfall. We could have mutiple landfalls. And we could have inland problems.

IF the worst case scenario play out that's a lot of people without power and trees down and the recovery could take longer. If you don't beieve me ask someone in the NE that is still waiting for help cutting down trees that fell in ISAIAS. So yes I am worried on the supply chain and power outages but that's a worst case scenario added in with storm surge and huge tropical rain. Forward speed is very important and let's hope these are fast moving.

As for the old Fujiwara know they do happen here but not the way they do in the movies or in the Pacific because there isn't the amount of land to really do a total loop but interaction can and will happen if they both continue on their track as the NHC has forecast they will do so.

Also IMPORTANT for FLORIDA.. until a system is way gone inland somewhere else do not think you are out of any danger until you are totall clear. Cones change, the environment changes and storms change track often especially when interacting with another storm. I'm from an Old Florida family (since 1800s) and we were taught when young... until they are GONE GONE GONE don't turn your back or some storm will come back at you like Betsy did or Andrew turns suddenly West and well get it, that's how we roll. There is a price for living in paradise and sometimes hurricanes happen or you get moisture from a storm that makes landfall somewhere else but there is a strong moisture feed that brings flooding rain or tornadoes in distant bands. It's not over til it's over. Remember that.

Stay safe and stay informed and I'll be back Saturday evening.
Seriously someone can spend the whole time just on www.spaghettimodels.com
He does updates on Facebook at 9:19 AM and 8PM usually so there's that.
And honestly there is great info on YouTube, so find someone you love to listen to and reward them generously by subscribing and making a donation.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps  again don't be that kid... don't follow every new run of the models, watch them but follow the NHC.

Song most definitely is Marren Morris, love her... and obviously Laura and TD 14 could meet somewhere in the middle ;)    Time will tell if they ever meet... Tropical Drama 2020 style!



Keep reading from earlier Friday...
The thoughts are the same.


These are my thoughts currently.
Again I'll discuss models later.
But it's still premature and they...
...keep changing.
While keeping the same general solution.



11 AM Friday Laura and TD 14


11 AM Cone above.

As per the NHC below.
Seen above in the cone as well
I want to warn against believing any cone...
...is set in stone yet.
Rely on their guidance.
Know changes will happen down the line.
How subtle is the question.
NHC has readjusted center of both ...
...stay tuned.
This is all still developing.
Salient point below from NHC.

"Tropical storm warnings have been issued 
for the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands" 








As for TD 14 Cone below as of 11 AM













I want you to please read the NHC Discussion...



...if you really want to understand this.



The NHC is doing the best job they can...



...to provide you with the best product.



It's a difficult job at present.



As TD 14 moves away from land...



...the picture should clear up.







They blended data for the position.



So if you are tracking old school.



It appears it jumped North.



Time will tell. 



I'll put out videos and talk on models this afternoon.



Stay tuned.











"A well-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has become



apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now

a blend of the aircraft fixes is being used for the 

initial position until we can be sure the satellite 

feature is in fact the one and only center.A well-defined 

swirl coincident with the second center fix has become





apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a 

blend of the be sure the satellite feature is in fact 

the one and only center aircraft fixes is being used 

for the initial position"  from NHC









What do I mean? Why did I mention this?



If you were tracking using data vs new position on a graphic. The last 3 advisories on TD 14.







15.4 N  83.1 W



16.2N   84.2 W



16.6N   84.1 W







If you do the math it just moved .4 West and .1 East. 



That isn't "movement" it's based on a "blend of the aircraft fixes" as quoted above.







What this really means is not that it's taking off for the North or that something changed, nothing really changed it is still in close proximity to land and that inhibits intensification and sometimes impacts the location of the center in a weak system in the development phase. what it really means is stay tuned, watch, check back with NHC (read their discussion) and prepare as you are directed by your local sources and wait to put plans into action based on what the NHC and local sources tell you down the road should you need to do so.  I know not easy when you have a part of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast sitting within not one but two cones. But, that's what we do and it's the way it goes. Understand models run based on initial position and every time something changes it COULD change the models and then the NHC COULD change the cone. That is why you are directed to watch trends, follow advice, prepare and wait to put those plans into action. In other words regarding TD 14 we aren't there yet and as for Laura this also applies as it's still pulling itself together stage.












More later...



*       *       *        *











This is why I always check once more...



...before hitting publish.







The satellite loop is below.





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From the 5 AM graphics that will change at 11 maybe.



Or not but it's the general feel for things.















Understand the shape is the issue.



It's possible stronger winds come from the right.



Or the left or they both have strong winds.



The point is the Northern GOM is under the gun....



storm surge, rain, wind.



How strong is still the question.







Read this knowing 13 is NOW LAURA



That means 14 will become Marco most likely.



Nana IS waiting in the wings. 







Wrote this at 8 AM and NOT going to update it as it's possible we have Marco later today as well so it doesn't matter if I write TD13 or TD14 below it's about having TWO systems that the models insist will form and move towards the cities and homes of people along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. 







The problem with pinning down the forecast.



With that said ... 



FOLLOW THE NHC.



Their advice, graphics, watches and warnings.



They are tasked with the bottom line.



The official bottom line.

Less images in this blog.

Words matter.

Everyone asks me what I think....

... this is what I think as of 10 AM Friday.







My thoughts.........



I'm going to keep this short this morning and go longer this afternoon or let's say using my words this morning and less graphics. The reason is that clearly until one system develops a well stacked center that is the real center now and always it's very hard to say what will be as currently they have been taking turns pulsing, waning, flaring up and both systems have multiple areas of convection and centers. (UPDATED NOTE again TD 13 was upgraded to TS Laura now, remember that as of 9 AM after recon found confirmation this morning)



Honestly. Recon flew around in TD 13 yesterday late in the day and couldn't close off a center perfectly, as in a verified "we have lift off" center. In general it has a center and a sense of itself and a very large pocket of moisture around a somewhat dry center that flares up as if kids are playing with sparklers. It looks bright, kids are excited then it fizzles. Then you light another one tell the child to be careful and they write their name in the dark sky and then it fizzles.



Meanwhile TD 14 is doing the same thing, it flares up looking like it'a about to go hurricane and then suddenly it's a mess of convection bubbling around different points within a nice looking pocket. But you see like TD 13 (now Laura)  you can see it has a pocket, it has promise and then it fizzles. The big problem with 13 is while it lacks the oomph of deep convection the overall look of it has a "look" that shows you what it could look like as a real HURRICANE and that is what worries me with the potential for Laura.



Both are dealing with shear from various Upper Level Winds that are eigther dogging it (shear) or sucking moisture off or digging down disrupting the rudimentary circulation center that is trying to get going.  This is more about the chaotic environment that surrounds the two depressions than what is going on in the depression.



Often I say to look at the HIGH when watching tropical waves, but in this case it's hard to see it... tho it is there and is propelling them West but the Upper Level Lows and digging trofs (that often have small upper level lows as well) are wreaking havoc with them and yes that's good for those worrying on a Category 3 set of hurricanes approaching the coast but what is happening now is not indicative of what will be on Day 3 or 4 in the Cone. And, the actual development of one of these systems impacts the other greatly. It's not impossible to get two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico but it's rare and that's because there is only so much energy in the atmopshere and it's a mathematical equation as to how they can interact and what is availabloe for them so usually one develops stronger and the other reacts to the strength, flow and upper level steering currents. But until we have the facts as to what they will both me any attempt at knowing is an educated guess not a forecast, facts vs fantasy.



1. It's possible they both stay weak and intensify just before landfall into a hurricane and wobble onto a beach with lots of hype but less wind. However still the combined storm surge from the two on the Northern Gulf of Mexico coastline could be very problematic; add in are they wet systems or slow systems and are they moving fast or slow? And, obvoiusly the rain potential for a combined hit would be very problematic.



2. It's probable that one system steals the crown for HURRICANE and finds a sweet spot the other could not and in doing so the flow from the HURRICANE would either force the other system away or suck the system towards it. Again Lows love to move towards LOWS and away from Highs and with the absence of a strong High currentlhy on the maps the weaker low would acquiesce to the other's stronger presence. Kind of the way of the world if you think on it, but I cannot rule out two mediocre almost Category 1 storms just at that Cat 1 thresh hold moving towards the coast as if they are long distance runners competing in a marathon.



Andrew was an A storm in the Atlantic in late August, it had tons of abundant energy just waiting for it to explode and nothing to impede it and a very strong high carved in stone when it turned West so this is NOT Andrew so let's drop that analogy.  Camille developed in August after 2 weaker systems near the SE/E Coast and hit extremely untoched hot water (energy) near the Yucatan Passage going into the Gulf of Mexico and went WHAM to historic levels. But, Camille was a weak, wobbly wave waiting for the right time to go hog wild and honestly this is more a Camille set up than an Andrew set up BUT.............HOWEVER........Camille had a system named Debbie far out in the Atlantic not encroaching on it's territory or desired landfall.



It's a rare set up and we don't yet have strong fronts and the strong High took an odd time to socially distance.  So let's see what happens today and keep those doomsday graphics in mind, shop for what you need if you live anywhere from Florida to Texas (yes I said that) and figure out where you would go if you need to evacuate. Also, if both storms hit as strong storms with strong impacts it would take a long time for the power grid to be put back together again and that means cable and WIFI service as well so keep those phones charged, plugged in and keep back up chargers fully charged if you don't have a generator. Conserve phone batteries, battery operated radios and things such as water and your favorite non-perishables because worst case sceario this is going to be more difficult that the early days of the Shut Down when people were concerned about supply lines holding up. Just saying.



ANOTHER PROBLEM. If everyone along the coast from TX and LA to the Florida Panhandle all decides to drive North towards the Ozarks there are only so many motel rooms available, only so much gas availabe and hot tempers are already currently available. If you have a shelter near you, check it out, sign up for it and plan to go and make sure you have what you need. If you decide to stay home away from others and prepare carefully know that if one of these puppies gets in a sweet spot it can be a contender for a Major Hurricane, while unlikely as of now, it is definitely possible so be sure you are not in an evacuation zone and if the trees have not been trimmed by you and your sister's house has shutters and in a better spot call (do not assume) and check if you can ride out this mess by her vs staying in your locaiton. There's always strength in numbers in a natural disaster rather than being alone.



Ps in 1933, a very busy hurricane season, two storms made landfall in almost the same places as Laura and Marco most likely will make landfall. In other years such as 1959 and another more recent that I'm trying to find... we had a very weak barely there system flop up onto a coastline while another stronger one raged elsewhere. I'm sure 2020 will do it's best to make it into the record books!



I'll update later in real time today, as we say Live Blogging.



Much to think on,

Besos BobbiStorm



Ps... Think of these systems as lima beans in a science project in elementary school. You plant, water, watch and think "wow this one is gonna be big" but you planted them close together and the first to shoot up did not develop as well as one further away and suddenly you got Jack in the Beanstalk growing taller than the others.  Oh and the wave off of Africa is going to stay West I believe and not recurve fast as many have said early on so there's a N storm in the wings IF these both develop into Laura and Marco. Sounds alot like One Life to Live or All My Children, doesn't it?



Stay tuned... more model discussion later today at the top or in a separate blog.



Yes I still have that Jambalaya song in my mind O ... yes 2020 is beginning to feel like a 1970s Disaster Movie you are right. The oddest things you find online.  Note...........I am saying I think areas down on the Bayou are in for a real mess from this mess of storms named Laura and most likely soon Marco.A bit of a disconnect with reaity but 2020 has been like that. My brother always loved the Carpenters so putting this here for him ;)  and please remember we are just diving into the depth of the hurricane season so yes we have only just begun and the O storm and the P storm will follow soon enough!







    

    

    
    

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