TD13 Forms from 98L ---- Mid August Look at the Tropics 2020 Hurricane Season. 98L Looks Ready for TD Status If It Continues to Pull Together. Wild Wave off of Africa. 97L A Sleeper Cell?

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That's TD 13.

Forecast to become a Tropical Storm.

Tropical Storm Watches up for the Islands.

Advisory below.

LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

A good loop shown below

from earlier today.

Wednesday's sunset on Invest #98L. It is painfully close to becoming #TD13 or even Tropical Storm #Laura. 
It reaches #PuertoRico on Saturday, eastern Cuba/Bahamas on Sunday, then western Cuba/south #Florida on Monday?? But how strong will it be... pic.twitter.com/gp39ZPvqoh
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) August 19, 2020

Going to sleep
Spent over an hour talking to my best friend about  #98L
Heard they were upgrading and here I am.
Tomorrow should be a busy day.
More watches should be posted at 5 AM.
And we will see them the first morning visible.
Better details.
Here we go... as the 2020 Season continues on.
Sweet Tropical Dreams.
If you didn't read the blog today.
Please do as it's my thoughts on the rest of the Season.

****

We are very colorful today.

What's your favorite flavor gum drop?

Let's put it in motion.

98L almost a TD.

New wave off Africa a "WOW"

97L a Sleeper Wave, hope it doesn't wake up later.

This is a discussion on the State of the Tropics.
Mid August discussion.
I'll do models later tonight.
Both discussing 98 and 97 and...
...other hurricanes and where they may track later.

We have a conundrum today in the tropics regarding Invest 98L and also 97L though the expectations for the shorrt term are lowering with 97L even though the NHC keeps odds up. The 2 big models the Euro and the GFS really don't like either of them to the point that on certain model runs they don't even "see them" and yet their ensemble models that spray the Atlantic with tropical possibilities do see them. More so the CMC that is often made fun of but has been very good this year and the new kid on the block the ICON really like them down the road. Hard for the NHC to go against their favored models and very rare for them. The waves came off of Africa looking hot and heavy and ready to spin yet they both have problems and the problem is the same problem that previous waves have had and that is dry air and a continuation of Saharan Dust beyond it's original reservation dates. It keeps extending it's stay if you know what I mean.  What does that really mean for us now and later.

SAL is present often this time of year, there are no hard and fast rules for it other than a general "it shouldn't be a factor in September" as every year is a bit different and each SAL oubreak has it's own character and travel track. Kind of a lot like Tropical Waves that come off Africa, moving fast propelled by the strength of the High ... some faster, some slower and where they go is often where SAL went. If and when you get a hurricane spinning and when I say hurricane I mean you can see it on the satellite without squinting and you go "oh WOW" then those hurricanes will be more able to do what all hurricanes do in that they pull North and do not tangle with Hispanoila... well unless they were down by South America and pull North there the way say Matthew did back when.

Yesterday I stared at Invest 98L so long it began to look like an Ink Blot and I was sure my shrink friend was going to judge me based on what I saw when I looked at it ... the way some meterology friends I know here whose names I won't mention say suddenly when you are in their truck "look at that cloud, do you see a dragon?" and I look and I think to myself "hmnnn what should I tell him I see a sheep" and there you have a conundrum.

If I am staring at an Invest that is 90% strong ready to roar and be designated as more than an Invest I should see circulation, a center and rudimentary signs of a tail and all I'm seeing is an Ink Blot. I shared the Ink Blot and amazingly fun friends online answered with more anwers than I could imagine (maybe over 70 answers) but few said "wow that's a huricane" or "a tropical storm" and few said this image I saw in my head of some cross between a Marvel Magazine character, Neptune and Donald Duck. I do understand that my head is often a strange place and usually only my writer friend can take the mess in my head and make somethng worthy of an award out of it but what can I say I'm complicated.
Left brain, right brain all mixed together and bottom line is ... if it looks like an Ink Blot for the time beging the Euro and the GFS might be right, but in the long run if it stays together and finds a sweet spot we could worry about a developing system close in such as Hanna and Isaias that came before 97 and 98 and may I add we will soon have 99L as the big beautiful wave over Africa is now about to swim WNW in the wake of 97L and 98L and already has a yellow circle of it's own.  I do think 98L is worthy of consideration for a Tropical Depression at this point, they don't have to be perfect ready to pop an eye before being named they need a closed center and if it can be proven 98L has one then upgrade. Not all tropical depressions make the grade and get promoted to Tropical Storms, it's just the way of the tropics; contestants for that award but not all make the grade.

Last thing I want to say and warn you on is that many of our biggest, strongest, bad hurricanes and when I say "bad" I mean you remember their name forever ............... developed close in from old waves and areas of convection that couldn't get it together until they did. The list is so long I wouldn't begin to try and name them all and many in slow years or busy years with close in development vs long trackers.

Katrina pulled it together just off the East Coast of Florida as a friend pointed out last night online.
Camille formed in the Caribbean going into the Gulf of Mexico from an old African wave.
Andrew didn't develop until it was due East of Miami and turned due West ignoring it's forecast.
The Labor Day Hurriicane of 1935 blew up in the Bahamas and took out a train.

Those are just a few worthy of being mentioned. So when you see a huge area of moisture that takes longer to pull together than an itsy bitsy wave that turns into a hurricane for a few days before unraveling don't get too excited but just wait, watch it and wait and see what happenes. Oh, should I mention the long saga of Harvey? No I think best not to go there.

The current pattern demands a storm going up into the Gulf of Mexico sometime down the road; not talking way down the road either so stay tuned. What wanders west though the Caribbean usuaully gets into the Gulf of Mexico and had that wave developed fast it would have turned NW around 45N and never looked back on it's way out to sea.  The East Coast is due for a repeat offender later in the season late September into October probably due to the current set up. And, Florida is forever stuck with tropical systems flirting with them until they let their guard down finally and decide not to put up the shutters and then one rapidly intensifies and/or lunges West and clips the coast or crosses Florida on it's way into the Gulf of Mexico because of a stronger than average High Pressure area. Cuba is in it as the Caribbean is going to be a hot spot for later season development. Oh and what begins in the Caribbean doesn't stay in the Caribbean it either goes North into the Gulf of Mexico, up towards Florida and the East Coast and eventually out to sea.

So that's my long blog post ...old school....with lots of writing for the day. I thank you for taking the time to read it as it's really an evaluation of where we are at in Mid August in the tropics as we wait for Laura, Marco and Nana to form.

Much love and really thanks for all the input and discussion on Twiter, I always enjoy reading your thoughts. Thanks for putting up with my make up and dinner dishes on Instagram when the tropics are slow.

I'll update in real time if the NHC upgrades any of the Invests.

Again in review. When you see this image above and think "wow there's a storm in the EPAC" there's not much going on in the Atlantic other than lots of tropical speculation. And when you go to look at 98L close in and your attention goes to Africa and thinks "wow check that out, it kind of has a circulation but it's a bit high, hmnnn" you know 98L isn't quite ready yet to be upgraded.

See what I mean?

It's a conundrum.

Just because it's not a TS now does not mean it won't be one.

Learn from history.

What forms fast usually misses landfall.

What dawdles and stays together...

...can become a huge problem later.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps.. Missing Florida and real coladas and cortaditos and my kids.

And my best friends and the History Museum Library.

And the bay at Miami Shores (hidden spot for sunrise)

And the beach with palm trees 

And a  Seminole Wind.....

my son posted these pictures the other day on Instagram.

He's an architect so he loves structure ..

...and nature and photography

@instagram/zalmymeyer 

The colors of the Everglades are incredible.

The view is awesome.

Check it out...you can feel the Seminole Wind.

Shark Valley Observation Tower

Out near the Big Bend West of Miami.

Take a drive ....take a walk.

Take some photos.