Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, August 20, 2020

5PM Cone TD 13 Florida. TD 14 TX/LA TD14 Formed from #97L As I Said All Morning Looking Very Ready for a Name. TD 13 Still Expected to Be a TS Today......... TD13 Recon Going In ... 97L Coming on STRONG. Waiting on 99L To Show It's Face. Why Does Everyone Mention Andrew? In the Blog. But Remember How Dorian Was Never Forecast to Stall . Come to a Dead Stop & Missed Rapid Intensification. A Look Back at a Year Ago with Dorian. Things Change.



Don't forget about the African Wave....


The big change is Recon found TD 14 center further South.,
Recon will go into TD 13 later I believe.

I'll update with model info in a bit.
The NHC is working hard to get the best track.,
And intensity that often eludes them....

TD13 Florida for now.
TD14 Texas/Louisiana for now.

Not much has changed logic wise.
So now it's up to you to make sure your plan will work.
Double check arrangements if you need to evacuate.
Make sure your windows lock.
Medicines refilled.
If these don't get you the next two might.
Being honest.

I made a video earlier.
It's a chaotic environment around these two systems.
Later in September fronts and highs are defined.
The GFS is on board.
Will the EURO jump on board?
Either way many models make 13 a Major Hurricane.
So stay tuned.




My thoughts on TD 13 and TD 14
Leaving it with me laughing.
Keeping it real.
Busy crazy day today tropically speaking.
I'll update the blog after the 2 PM or at 5PM
Depending on info from Recon and NHC.

Regarding TD 14... where is it going?


Good graphic below.
Excellent.
But will that happen? 
Time will tell.


Today's date in case  you wondered.....
8/20/2020 

2020 Hurricane Season.... 
..... keeps on coming at us.

TIMING........


Again these is on the NHC site.



TD 14 Above.
Close to land.
More compelling location wise.
Recon is going in (thank you)
Let's see what they find.
I feel better now cheating on 13 for #97L
Because I was right it's going Tropical Storm soon.
To keep them separate going to show a different NHC Cone.
TD 13 Below.


This is a great product use it.
it's interactive.


This can and will change.
Change is the one constant this far out you can rely on.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Mike has ALL the models there.
He has so many sites with models.
So letting you use that but know....
Models change.
Change is the name of the game today.
The blog below explains why?
Everyone thinks the models are so great now days.
A year ago models missed Dorian's track....
... rapid intensification and timing.
Timing and RI are always connected.

As for TD13 looking more like a TS now.
Don't count out Louisiana when looking at Texas.

As for TD 14 Islands, Bahamas and Florida watch it!
It lacks convection and has a very weak signature ..
...but things can change fast.

Yesterday I talked on how dry the air is there.
But as it moves West the whole basin is moist.
Then things can change.

Which gets the Laura name?
Which is Marco?

Place your bets while preparing.

5 AM Cone below for TD13
Go to the NHC site and comapre and contrast.
Important things to say today.
Note this was written BEFORE the change to TD 14
So remember how fast things change... when reading today.



I used to love the 12 hour Unisys Black and White Water Vapor Loop. Those of you who have been with me over the years know that. Why? Because a 12 hour loop really gives you time to absorp what has been going on and where things will go down the road. It was easy to compare and contrast hour by hour, just a great loop. www.tropicaltidbits.com has one up I use often, it's not the same but it's good. The Real Earth one is a Beta, has bugs that come and go like mosquitos on a summer evening and yet it's wonderful as you can turn the world around. It's not about what TD13 looks like today it's about what TD13 will look like as a named storm approaching Florida/Cuba and the Florida Straits. Even the NHC says they are unsure of the exact location but there's a window... a Cone for where it most likely will be. Curious what they do at a 11 AM and 5 PM today.


This was last night.
I was talking to my best friend about 98L
It looked as if it has serious problems.
Almost naked as we love to say.
Needed a better wardrobe.
EURO doesn't like it yet.
NHC going with it.
Upgraded it.

Below it's TD13
Current at 9 AM.
TD 13 still needs a wardrobe.
But oh my gosh check out 97L...
And 99L to be looks good, very good.
Recon is going into TD 13 today so we will know more.



Here's my best message for this morning.
2020 Hurricane Season is JUST BEGINNING.
A thru K mostly Pre-Season and that had a price tag.
But today we are going into the heart of the hurricane season.




I made a few videos because we have a few systems.
And much to talk about.
Yet mostly it's all still quetstions.

Intensity?
Structure of the system?
Location??????
Land interaction with Islands...
or thru the Yucatan Passage for 97L
and up and over the Islands for TD13
Why doesn't the EURO see these systems?
We will get answers soon enough. 
Let's look at those images from the top in motion.




Now let's look at TD13 on Dvorak.
Dvorak shows intesnsity.
The brighter the white ...
...tbe stronger the system.
It's not strong.
But it could be very strong some day.



Hey telling it like it is.
97L bears watching today.
TD 13 bears watching Sunday/Monday.
So many questions with it yet....
...all the models but the Euro agree.
Go figure.

So let's look at the models fast.
I'll do a long update after the afternoon models.
And after we get recon on TD 13


Current model thought is up over the islands.

I really can't go against my Grandma Mary because she knew tropical weather, she spent her young years in Key West, grew up in Tampa and lived and died in Miami ... kind of the Bermuda Triangle of Tropical Weather and Tropical Florida. The storms that come up and over the Islands are the ones to worry on and the reason is less land interaction and then they go hog wild and either intensify just before landfall or stall somewhere debating where to go. They make you go crazy if you know their power for trouble. But the models can change, the lone wolf Euro could be right and know something all the other models don't seem to know? Kind of do or die time for the Euro to get on board or lose it's throne if it waits too late to jump on it as it has done a few times this year.

So here we are... another two Tweets I want to share are from my local weather maven Allan in NC; he is good, guarded, careful and doesn't excite easily.


There's TD13 (earlier models but still similar)
Below is 97L and really 97L could get upgraded soon.


People in South Florida should be ready for a potential hurricane.
I agree, whole heartedly.
Don't expect every storm to magically curve away.
Each storm is different - deal with this one.
This is a concern for me as I mentioned yesterday.
Read yesterday's blog it gives a forecast for the rest of the season.

It ALSO shows a 2nd Landfall ...
But where really will that be?
FL panhandle?
Or does it get pulled more to the left...
...because of 97L a named storm?

Got a lot here to think on....
Nothng is off the table today.
And don't forget we should have 99L soon.
From that African Tropical Wave.

As for our colored fruit .. I didn't show it.
97L is at 90% Could be upgraded today.
Soon to be 99L is orange at 40%

Bottom Line:


Does that look familiar?
Last night I was talking to my friend Sharon and the reality is that Dorian a year ago missed the forecast track and went right over the Virgin Islands. The NHC quickly hoisted a hurricane warning as it intensified there unexpectedly as the forecast took it over the big island with mountains, but it didn't do that. Then in the Turks it began to pull together, then as it approached islands close to South Florida that was worried they would get a landfall Dorian did rapid intensification and parked itself for close to two days over one small spit of an island in the Bahamas where people lived and died and some survived and it curved away from South Florida.

You can read the blog in the link below:
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/08/dorian-so-many-questions-stubbornly.html


Hmmm check out the timing on this track.
Still headed across Florida.
Moving rapidly.
A hurricane but nothing Major.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/08/dorian-strengthening-bulking-up-pr-vi.html

So when meteorologists talk on how good our models are these days vs Andrew and Betsy and Katrina even and yet a year ago in August the NHC based on all the models put Central Florida on watch for a hurricane moving quickly. We know what happened, it rapidly intensified beyond the wildest dreams of every model pretty much and dropped anchor for a long time. So I'm pretty sure our models this year are not much better at Intensity forecasting than last year and it shows how fast the NHC Cone can change based on changes within the storm and the models. Trust me @iCyclone can tell you what happened next because he was in the eye of Dorian.


Yeah that happened.
 Honestly the HWRF model wasn't cfrazy.
Everyone said it was crazy.
So don't rule it out if it sounds crazy.
Models missed Dorian.

A good tweet from @iCyclone.
He's got such a way with words.


But the image above happened.
Why did the models miss the stall.
And it wasn't a stall it dropped anchor.
Why did the models miss the rapid intensificaiton?

What are the models missing with TD13?
And with 97L looking strong today.

5 AM Thursday 8/20/2020
Estimated wind forecast from NHC below.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/200901.shtml

The numbers will change I'm sure.
Compare and contrast.
Don't panic or freak.
Just watch it ... wait for it.
And get ready to put your plans into action.

Excellent discussion this morning by Beven.
I like his discussion usually.
Read it.
Then compare it to the 11...
..and to the 5.

And never ever take your eye off the storm.
And if it pops an eye ever.. Watch that eye.
And prepare to board up or evacuate.
IF you are in an evacuation zone.
Maybe you won't need to.
But prepare now.

I'll update all day.

It's moving fast now but once it slows.
Watch out...

And don't forget about 97L
Wish they were sending recon in there.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Bottom Line ... 
If a storm hits a sweet spot and has the structure.
It can go Hurricane really fast.
As we saw just last year.
When our models missed it going bonkers.
Much can change in a few days.





















posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:15 AM

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