UPDATED! 11 PM TS LAURA COMING OFF OF CUBA.- FINALLY - Marco Made Landfall BY Mouth of Mississippi Then NHC Pulled Plug and Downgraded It to TD. Where is Laura Going? Will Laura Become a Major Hurricane? Remembering Andrew in 1992 on Today It's Anniversary and Hurricane Irene in 1999

11 PM
22.7 N 84.0
WNW 20 MPH
996 MB   65 MPH WINDS.
Crossed Tip of Cuba.
Finally!



Discussion at the top.
Video at the bottom before the Cones.

It feels as if we have been waiting forever for it to get into the Florida Straits or the Gulf of Mexico, but tonight recon found it has crossed the coastline and is in the water. A lot to say here but keeping it short. Not sure what time I will update in the morning so putting this out at 11 PM.  Havana reported strong winds and data was shared so we have that info as well as data from Key West far from Laura today but having had strong, fasts moving squalls with 60 plus MPH gusts. The power is defnitely there, the promise of more power is being written about online and the NHC forecasts Laura to be 110 MPH before landfall somewhere near the Sabine River along the border of Texas and Louisiana. 

An excellent discussion tonight from the NHC.

Filled with lots of info, reads like a weather novel.

A snippet is below hoping you will read the whole thing.

A few comments here.

Currently Laura is very bottom heavy.

The center is at the top of this image.

There has been shear going on.

It's not talked about much...

...I'm not sure why.

The ULL to the West of it has pushed it hard.

It's been moving very fast.

The High is in place but it's had problems.

There still is a secondary center.

BUT all in all Laura looks good tonight.

Another image shows this better.

Again Laura's center is up near Cuba.

It's a bit elongated.

But hey it's looking better hour by hour.

Tomorrow we will see what it does over the GOM.

And yes it is forecast to cross the famous Loop Eddy.

IF when it crosses it has finished wrapping up...

And it has an unifed center building vertically...

...then models that show Major Hurricane could verify.

But between here and there obstacles pop up.

Spent the night watching loops w my best friend in FL on the phone #thinkingoutloud for the #blog I just updated. Going to sleep. Take #Laura seriously!! pic.twitter.com/uy44TIpumi

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 25, 2020

Either way this is the Cone at 11 PM.

Easy to say time will tell.

But it's true.

Does shear pop up to it's NW in the GOM.

Possible, I see where it could.

But it's all a matter of timing.

If she sticks to the time schedule.

She is able to achieve prime intensity before landfall.

This is a storm to take seriously.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's not a hurricane tomorrow.

As for Marco... as I said earlier.

His convection left him.

The NHC kept tracking the naked swirl.

Visible but without convection.

It made landfall at the "mouth of the Misissippi"

Then they immediately pulled the plug.

Downgraded it to the TD that it was... 

Whatever.

Thankful that it did not pound the area...

...days before Laura makes landfall.

But there doesn't appear currently...

...anything to inhibit Laura.

So let's see what happens tomorrow.

Obviously everyone in the path ...

....needs to take this one very seriously.

Models and discussion Tuesday Morning.

A loop tonight of the basin.

I do want to say one thing...

So far Laura has always done her own thing.

I went back over recent Cones today.

She was either in the bottom of the cone.

A few times today's position was out of older cones.

So I'm a bit concerned on the forecast.

But the steering currents seem solid.

Models all agree TX/LA border.

But a lot can happen in the next two days.

But it is in the 3 day NHC Cone....

So it will be somewhere within that 3 day cone.

How strong? Big question.

We will know soon enough.

Loop.

Writen earlier Monday...

I know it looks like Marco went to Florida.
 Not but it's "weather mass of convection" did.

As Mike showed below from Twitter.

In his wonderful "Mike Style"

this is a tweet by Mike 

www.spaghettimodels.com

Mike's Weather Page on Facebook.

He's been joking about this for a while.

It illustrates the reality of Marco.

I speak often on how a tropical system needs to be vertically stacked for it to achieve the best results and basically be a real Hurricane. Often these days tropical storms are upgraded when a hurricane force wind appears briefly and they upgrade a Tropical Storm that looks as if it is really coming together. But, understand systems in this category range of "trying to pull it together" usually have more than one center. At some point the NHC goes with the dominant one and tracks that one and that's why if any of you are tracking on paper or Google Earth you know Marco made this whole dip SW then back in the Caribbean and it made for a very jagged track map. Marco's weather (the real impact of a hurricane or tropical storm) is far removed from it's naked center that is so naked without Earthnull it's hard to even find it on visible imagery. And the WEATHER went NE towards Florida... the Big Bend, the Tallahassee area will get slammed with the weather of Marco while his naked center is sliding westbound as weaker systems do as they go west with the lower level flow.  

Above we have POLO

Below we have MARCO

This began last night.

The lower blob is MARCO

The upper blob is "POLO"

And Polo ran off with Marco's convection.

But the NHC God Bless Them......

... sticking with the one they took to the Prom.

Old saying if you know what I mean.

So not showing the Cone right now on Marco.

Because the weather needs to be tracked.

One of the things I have said nonstop on here the last few days is that you need to pay attention not just to the NHC but to the NWS and your local weather experts BECAUSE it was obvious this was probably going to happen and if you are just looking at a Cone on Facebook your Aunt who lives in New Orleans put up and you have weather alerts turned off on your cell phone you have no idea what is about to hit you in the Big Bend area of Florida and now in Apalachicola Bay until you see those dark clouds coming. 

I hope this makes sense to you. It's easier to know for sure what will happen you have a Major Hurricane hauling ass towards landfall with low shear and a high to the North of it somewhere and all the weather is tightly caught up in an amazing center that looks terrifying to look at if you are living on Miami Beach in 1992 and Andrew is coming straight at you. In 92 there were no other options but West towards landfall, blocked from going NW by a huge high that built in. But while Marco IS a weak, small tropical system  it is different type of storm and often as they move towards landfall they break apart and the weather goes with one mid center and the low level center continues on as did Irma as the NHC tracked it to Atlanta and people in Jax were having historic flooding from the weather once associated with Irma and that happens often. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene_(1999)#Florida

Note the purples were over SE Florida.

Miami had NO Tropical Storm Warning.

Miami got the strongest rainfall aka weather.

In 1999 this happened with Irene that was being tracked to Naples while Miami and Ft. Lauderdale were already being flooded, people died driving into high water and while walking their dog into a puddle energized by downed electric wires. I don't use that popular phrase much but Ireme was truly a "shit show" and it was terrible far from the center and eventually the NHC did say the Miami area was getting strong wind and the Mayor had to go on TV live and BEG employers to "let their people go" and schools were released early but you couldn't even get to the school to pick up your kids even if your employer let you off of work early. It was easier for the kids to walk home in flooded water with the danger of downed electric wires. I kept my kids home, my son Levi who was easily 6 feet walked home from the bus stop after his employer told him to go home in knee deep water in an area in Miami that never sees flooding. Rain came in sideways through the wall pooling on the terrazzo floor with his girlfriend Hanna screaming "MA WE NEED MORE TOWELS"    Oh my God.  Irene brought a big discusssion afterwards and the Miami Herald went crazy asking how this happened and the NHC said they would pay more attention to the "weather" associated with a distant center in the future and they did that for like one hurricane season and then went back to their job which is tracking the center.

That's the top of the cone for Laura.

Note the NHC has a disclaimer on their cone.

"Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone"

That's why I say follow your local NWS.

To be fair the NHC does shift at times their Cone and in the case of Irene the early forecasts did not verify but the later ones did and in truth TV went live and everyone knew what what they saw with their eyes being the "weather" moving NE towards Miami FLL and WPB was not the message from being told by the NHC but the MAYOR went live but see as much as we live in a live world today ...there is not that "go to the TV put it on" as we are all online. People who feel burned by Charlie and Andrew and many other storms that veered away drastically from an earlier forecast and took down your house or farm or blew your trailer away ...now live virtually on Mike's Weather Page or read whoever they trust the most or follow Bryan Norcross wherever he goes because he is as close to God as many atheists have ...... who went through Hurricane Andrew. 

Now speaking of Hurricane Andrew that did not catch the trof and turned due West under a high that suddenly dug in and intensified into a Category 5 aimed directly at the very populated, beautiful paradise that is Miami on a winter day in February and brought a hellish dream in August into the hearts and souls of Miami people who lived through the night and day of Hurricane Andrew.

Alfred Spellman is an extremely creative soul famous really for some of the best documentaries ever made covering topics known to Miami people but made famous by his movie Cocaine Cowboys that taught the rest of the world about what was going on in Miami in the 1980s... but what was going on in his life in 1992 was Hurricane Andrew. And, as much as Alfred likes to talk politics because politics matter during the hurricane season he watches the storms and what people he trusts say and deep down he trusts what he sees and knows because he has been there and he has been through it, as was Rene who retweeted Alfred's post and gave his thoughts. There was a train of thought that people in South Dade were safe because it looked as if the small tightly wound eye of Andrew was going to go towards the Broward - Dade County Line but Andrew bobbled by just a degree or two South and slammed into Kendall, Cutler Ridge, Homestead and yet still did crazy damage in Miami as well as Homestead that got the harsh, horrific eye and on Miami Beach which juts out further East than Miami got a good bashing as were were close to the stronger part of the eye wall that passed just south of us over the Northern tip of Key Biscayne on it's way West afer dipping South just a drop.

Those who went through Charlie in Port Charlotte listening to the hype that said it would hit Tampa are all on Mike's Weather Page on Facebook as I type because once burned that way they will never let their guard down again. 

Rob at www.crownweather.com has a pay for view site.

He is well worth the money especially in September.

Trust me because September brings the real tropical trouble.

The REAL Hurricanes that line up like planes...

...coming in for a landing at Miami International Airport.

Or maybe a strong coastal runner up the East Coast ...

...Carolinas.

Galveston?

Putting up this cone for now.

Note the Category 2 strength on the 5th day.

The director of the NHC said today on air...

..always prepare for 1 category stronger than what it shows.

That's what HE said on TWC.

So prepare for a Cat 3!

... because the head of the NHC said so!!

So you want to know about Laura? I'll tell you that it could be a very serious major hurricane down the road after Cuba. It did not make landfall with Marco but Marco did help pull it further West and a very strong High that is East of Laura is pushing it WEST (even if the NHC says WNW it's generally West) and until it crosses Cuba and gets into the Gulf of Mexico we really won't know for sure though it's obvious the cone will keep going to the left (West) unless it begins to lift and takes aim on some city in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Note the big dark thing that looks like black hurricane with a black eye in it behind the huge area convection that is Laura? That's what is pushing it West and at some point shear will dog it but at some point if it comes together as models imply we will have a Major Hurricane and a big Hurricane Laura taking up a good part of the Gulf of Mexico. Also remember early models took it to Miami, but that didn't happen and models get better over time as a storm comes together and while Laura can be scary looking sometimes it ain't there yet. So prepare now. And remember the hurricanes of September will follow.

I'll update later sometime today. I need to pull things back together this Monday, get back into a routine, get some things done and not obsess on the naked swirl that is Marco and hope that the people in the Panhandle of Florida are okay because there are more hurricanes coming. As for Texas, you know this may be your hurricane but just as easily it could go to Louisiana. The problem with Laura is timing, she has never stuck to her time line and I don't see any reason that she will suddenly do so until she totally wraps up into that beautiful Category 2 Hurricane the NHC forecasts her to become. Also remember what he said...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps what do I really want right now? I want to go back to the way things were 6 months ago before Covid and get in the car and drive slowly down to Miami putting anchor at Ormond Beach for a bit, watching the sunrise while my husband goes to the Chabad House nearby for his morning prayers while I pray at the beach and stare at the beauty of a sunrise there...    I want to go to Miami and see my kids, my grandkids and oh my gosh my best friends Sharon, Malka my pretend sister and Mike. I want to talk to Paul George the historian and one of my favorite people in the world and do untold research at the Florida Room in the Library downtown and the History Museum next door and then get a drink at Bayside and stare out at beautiful Biscayne Bay and the sailboats bobbing around in the tropical breeze. I want to stand on the sea wall in Miami Shores with my youngest son and talk history and weather and architecture or go out on Levi's boat for a sunset cruise. My brother has wild large avocadoes he wants to give away and a purple passion vine in bloom. I want to drink cortadito at a real Cuban Restaurant that gets it right. Maybe October... it's a definite maybe. But me and my asthma and allergies that are currently horrible but managable are staying in Raleigh wishing for things I obviously can't have today but giving thanks for the really good life here in the Carolinas I have despite the dark clouds of Covid that didn't go away in the summer as many experts said it would and I'm waiting for the leaves to turn and fall and for winter storms to whisper promises of snow.

And on the way back from Miami we stop in Savannah and stay in a beautiful hotel and I wander around another city I love and then drive back through Low Country for a while before getting back on I95 back home to Raleigh.

My mother always worried on September to deliver the worst hurricanes ... so this is for her and her rose garden.