Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

11 PM NHC FORECASTS CAT 3 HURRICANE LAURA AT LANDFALL Still Forecast to be Major Hurricane at Landfall ... EYE Forming, Pulling Together. Dangerous Hurricane... Worst Case For Many in it's Track. Follow NHC & NWS Advice Please. Links, Loops, Voices Worth Listening to and Some Hurricane History.




11 PM Cone.
NHC Stays with their forecast.
Forecasting landfall with 120 MPH winds!


Close up map of forecast landfall.


Somewhere between Beaumont and Lake Charles.
Cities more inland for reasons explained below.
Cameron Parish directly in the center tonight.



Laura is building an eye tonight.
But it still has a dry slot.
Trying to consolidate around the eye.
Remember it's been elongated.
Pressure is dropping.
A lot of us will be up all night watching.
Possible Rapid Intensification...
..tonight or in the morning.
NHC forecasting a Cat 3 Hurricane.

Some thoughts.

Listening to Jim Wililams do a live program tonight discussing Laura in detail and trust me I know Jim he is all about detail and if you are hurricane history person like I am ... I can listen for hours. Details, data and trivia. His site is www.hurricanecity.com and you can check out the models and which ones are best performing on many levels. His knowlege of Hurricane History is deep and knowledgeable. 

And he's showing the area in Cameron Parish and how difficult it would be to find a good place to set up if you were chasing and Jim chases sometimes, he was in the eye of Michael and broadcast live until the signal was gone. It's hard to find a spot and most of it will be under water if Laura comes in as forecast. He keeps going back and forth on maps to Lake Charles and I have to tell you tonight I've had problems getting Lake Charles out of my mind. Often what happens at the coast moves up towards Lake Charles especially if a storm takes the right side of the Sabine River. 


So let's go to the Lake Charles NWS.
It basically covers the center of our cone.
It shows the forecast for Beaumont as well.
And while it could come in further West...
...as of tonight I'm seeing Beaumont to Lake Charles.
Cameron Parish. 
East of landfall Morgan City gets slammed also.
Surge and wind is usually strongest east of the eye..
...in this particular set up along the GOM.


This is a screen shot of Jim's screen as it talked and explainted.
He does that, he's a great talker and explainer.

There is very little of a town down there.
Homes, fishing spots busy in the summer.

And down south of Lake Charles there isn't much there.
You know why? See the map below.

There's nothing there because over time hurricanes...
...destroyed any attempt at setting up cities.
Hurricanes came, destroyed them.
Then hurricanes came again.
Eventually people learn...
...where not to build.
You know great place to visit...
...but if a hurricane makes landfall.
It's gone. Underwater.


There is the Sabine National Wildlife Refuge.
To the West of is another wildlife refuges.
The refuge for towns is to the North.
Port Arthur. Beaumont further inland.
To the East with have Lake Charles inland.
That is where infrastructure set up.
And in a bad hurricane they are also underwater.

Something to think on.
As I said earlier Galveston was the BIG CITY.
Commercial center, port, financial center.
After the 1900 Hurricane it was a beach resort.
And a beautiful place to live...
..and they keep raising the seawall.

Currently it's just outside the danger zone.
On the edge.
Will the NHC change that at 11 PM?
But they didn't.
They have seen too many hurricanes veer their way.
They issured a mandatory evacuation order today.

Note Tropical Storm Force Winds...
Extend out far on either side of the Cone.
The Cone tracks the eye.
Storm surge across a wide area.
And I'm very concerned on inland impact.
Beaumont, Lake Charles.
Shreveport ....

Keep reading please.
The part below written a bit earlier tonight.

I'm going to put the forecast and satellite images at the top this afternoon.

My thoughts.

The thoughts of some people I trust and respect.

And links at the bottom that may be helpful to someone in the path of Laura.

Yes I live in Raleigh NC but we are one Carolina so I follow Ed who does mostly SC.
But he is awesome with hurricanes and sunsets and local knowledge many needs in this area. So this is the forecast cone with thougnts from someone I respect and you should too!


So now you have your Cone.
Discussion from NHC below.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/252040.shtml
Good discussion, please use the link and read the thoughts that are behind the advisory package.
Beven, the Forecaster, knows this area well and he's a good read ........so read it.


Wind probabilities, read the explanations it's fairly simple and check back to see the trend.
A reminder that after Laura does the coast of the GOM it's due to impact the East Coast.
Yes... as it is forecast currently to stay together as an entity all the way back to the Atlantic.
While NC is watching it apparently it's more likely Virginia gets some if anyone is reading from there.
Yes it does say Nantucket. So check the wind probs not just the cone. The cone at 5 is pretty much the same as it was the NHC has carefully sticking to their forecast and that's good because the nodels that veered off another way ...veered back on the next run. Never chase models but watch them.



Satellite images and loops.


As I've said when u can see it from far away.
It's a hurricane.


That's a very impressive storm filling up the GOM.

Problems?


The eye is trying to close off.
That top red ball is the Hurricane.
The moisture down below has yet to wrap.
This shows you how much moisture will move inland....
...after the eye makes landfall.
It will impact a huge area.
The larger the area the harder to repair the power grid.
Search and rescue is more difficult.
Supply Chains could be in trouble.
Across a wide area and far inland.
Shreveport will get hurricane winds.
So will other areas.

My thoughts are on the previous blog.
A snippet of that is shown below.


Please read the previous blog. 
I've faced down a Cat 5 with my family in Miami Beach.
Andrew kept roling and your brain tries to find denial.
Denial only slows you down from putting a plan into action.

I'll update this later this evening.
I'll give my honest thoughts on track and intensity.
But wobbles only impact the eye a drop.
It's a HUGE system and the eye may be huge.
But time will tell.

Some thoughts from the web that I trust.



https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski
He compares and contrasts cones also, it's a scientific process and it's good to do as I do often here. I showed it above, I am showing it again.  Close of the cone is shown below. Check with the NHC for their many helpful graphics that show more details than the iconic cone.



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/153403.shtml?gm_track#contents
Use this cone to zoom in to see smaller towns in the path of Hurricane Laura.
Understand while the beach is a beach as it moves inland fast it impacts forested areas. Louisiana, specifically, is the Sportsman's Paradise that means many small lakes, big trees and forested areas and those trees come down fast in hurricane force winds. Power outages will not just be at the coast with a fast moving Major Hurricane. And if you are evactuating and driving inland do not go North inland but further from impacts from Laura inland.



Larry Cosgrove was an on air weather person in the Texas area and he pays close attention to Texas weather, however his weekly weather discussion covers the whole globe as he takes you around the world weather wise showing you how features in China or India may end up impacting the weather in the USA. He is very good at understanding the flow, but mentioning he is always watching out for Texas especially. You can follow him on Facebook or sign up for his weekly weather updates that cover general weather as well as short, medium and long range discussion.

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

From Facebook earlier today.


Images he put up with the text discussion.


Words matter but they are based on observation..
...and knowledge not just chasing models.

http://www.hurrtracker.com/Main/home.html
I've followed them for a long time.
They are good and they update in real time.
Often with a Cone a bit earlier than the NHC
And their cone is almost always the same.



Cranky is incredibly good.
People either love him or hate him.
I love his updates and maps.
He's not cranky as much as honest.
And he tells it like it is.
He draws fantastic maps.
He doesn't run with the pack of model chasers.
He does the hard work and knows Climo.


Crown Weather.
Oh my gosh I've known him for so long.
We all used to talk on AOL.
Yes, I'm that old. AOL.
He's a good cautious meteorologist.
And he goes into details easy to understand.
He has a pay for view site but he's on Twitter.


Click on that and read his thoughts.
Know his early predictions for this season totally verified.

www.crownweather.com
Follow him on Twitter.
Subscribe if you can he is very worth it.


Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com has many links down at the bottom for hurricane preparation, in theory you should have made a plan for this season no matter where you live but should Laura motivate you to worry what September may bring to Miami or Tampa or Charleston here are some of the links.

https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/make-a-plan.html

https://bellalagovethospital.com/hurricane.html#:~:text=If%
20you%20shelter%20in%20place,dogs%20may%20need%20some%20thought.
Long link it's for pets.

For parents with children, and Mike is a parent and a pet owner so he's a great source of info.

https://practicalaction.org/schools/beat-the-flood/

Scroll down his page on the bottom right and he has a plethora of valuable links with information. My blog is up on the top right, I'm very proud of that but Mike while known for his model links tries to provide you with as much information as possible on the front page and other pages so check out those links please. I know Mike, he's really awesome and as entertaining as he is educational with a vast knowledge of real life awareness of hurricanes and weather.  He has an update at 8 PM every everning, or almost every evening unless something comes up for him to delay it. 9:19 AM in the morning. You can find him on Facebook or Youtube, and actually I often listen on Youtube as it loads fast and is a cleaner feed sometimes than Facebook Live.


Links I posted in the previous blog.

www.spaghettimodels.com
A site Mike from Spaghettimodels.com recommends. https://zoom.earth/ (fantastic I'll add)
NRL link to map I often show from their site.  https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
This is the site we use to really slice and dice a hurricane.

Water Vapor Loop from Tropical Tidbits:
https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv-mid
Discussion:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al13/al132020.discus.022.shtml?
History links:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Indianola_hurricane
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1 of my analog years for 2020 .. 1886
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/139189444722194309/ Pinterest if you enjoy the images.
Hurricane Ike http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2008/09/ike-moving-faster-towards.html

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
I'll update later this evening.

Ps... Again my hayfever is driving me crazy, it's very hard to proof for mistakes but if you find some it's not my normal quality but my eyes itch this time of year but even with itchy eyes I can see the eye of Laura as she pulls it together and when she does she will intensify rapidly.



History is amazing at times. Who would think that one of the first reporters on the scene of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane would be Ernest Hemingway who took his boat the Pilar up to check out the damage and recorded it and sent out stories to the rest of America. Who would think that Edison would have early footage from the 1900 Galveston Hurricane and yet here it is mixed in with other historic photos including some from Henry Hyams Morris who documented the storm after surviving it with his family including an infant who grew to be an older beautiful woman. Originally they were listed as having died in the the hurricane, but in fact they survived and he took many images especially those incredible ones in front of the furniture standing upright even though the house fell down with the children playing. He's a distant relative of mine from the Morris part of the family, so I've researched him a bit especially as relates to his interest in hurricanes and photography!


posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:29 PM

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