Hurricane Harbor: 2PM Update. BLOB in the Carib. Florida Earthquake! Red Circle Now 80% Orange 60% Yellow ... Sorry Charlie You Only Got 30% Labor Day Weekend, Enjoy it! Give Charity to Those In Need in Lousiana Post Laura

2 PM

The NHC raised the red circle to 80%
Raising everyone's expectations.
Models still messy, murky, misunderstood.

They look like a trio of tulips.

Tip toeing their way West and then ???

Looking at the 2 day you see the satellite image.

Most people want to know what's in the Caribbean.

Journalism teaches you the value of local news.

While it doesn't have a yellow or orange circle...

..it does have a huge purple splotch on this site.

Messy flow in the #tropics . #ULL in Carib with area of convection I’ve been watching out of curiosity & distant waves taking their own sweet time to come to this part of the world. Maybe they are socially distancing 🤷🏻‍♀️from us https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS pic.twitter.com/pE8YnVhXpH
— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 4, 2020

So it's worth watching.

Fun to watch without a Killer Cane out there.

And adding in the orange one has higher chances.

Orange Wave 60% at 2 PM

Red Wave at 80%

Yellow Wave 30%

Boy that yellow circle must feel bad, everyone is staring at a wave coming off Africa with high chances yet will it stay low or go high? Some models show the good wave going high. Again they are not very reliable this far out with multiple waves vying for attention.

I forgot I did want to mention the EARTHQUAKE. I mean it's on the boarder between Alabama and Florida in the Florida Panhandle, but 3.8 is sizeable enough to "feel it" and wonder what happened. Haven't researched much about it but it's worth mentioning. My family had Shade Tobacco fields West of there in Quincy so I did wonder more than normal. So NC had earthquakes, now Florida and wondering if South Carolina won't be far behind?

Just interesting. Have a wonderful weekend, it's that simple. When God gives you a nice weekendat the end of Summer enjoy it, revel in it's beauty, go somewhere if you can or just hang out and know that Fall is just a few days away. Meteorological Fall began on September 1st so I did buy a pretty yellow/orange and green fancy Squash to begin decorating with as we move deeper into that time of year.

The rest of the blog was written Friday morning but relevant still if you have not read it. Thanks!

Our trio of waves are still there.

Hanging out. Barely moving.

So that's the story.

Slow moving.

Always takes a while to come together.

When you got so many cooks in the kitchen.

As for models.

Euro above.

GFS below.

Heart like wave over Africa.

Same date way down the road.

Again in HOT Raleigh I see that front.

True Confessions.

But there is no HURRICANE calling out to me.

So I really want a front right now.

Apparently the issue with mutliple waves is they have to argue like a bunch of little kids as to who gets to stand in line at the water fountain first, yes I taught school and yes they do that. There is discussion on a FUJIWARA which is basically like some kid giving another kid his chocolate chip cookie to jump in front of him in the line; that happens too! So fun to watch from far away sipping Sweet Tea, Coca Cola or with some Jack in your Cola from a beach somewhere or a lake or even just your back patio enjoying those last moments of summer.

The real message I want to leave you with is this..

Nothing staring us in the face.

Labor Day Weekend.

Enjoy it.

Please.

DONATE to a charity to help the victims of Laura.

www.redcross.org

It's a generic good charity.

There are many other good ones out there.

But people really are in need in Louisiana.

Wild Card Thoughts.

I always look close in during times like this.

When things pop up suddenly it's sudden.

Happened often this season....

Watch the SS Caribbean.

The long finger......

...or trunk of an Elephant.

Looks like an Anteater..

Weird.

The convection is actually made because of the agitation in the atmosphere down there. Sometimes areas form or rather try to form from these features so it's worth watching because it's in our basin and anything that forms down there gets up into our part of the world usually. There's been talk we are running ahead of schedule climo wise this year if so that would really be an area to watch but again let's call it a wildcard.

I have another true confession. When I said "Labor Day Weekend" I hadn't realized Labor Day was so deep into September last year and was thinking last week when I said we would have something happening. Yeah, I guess I take it one month at a time. But we do have things to watch over Labor Day but Larua was then, Marco didn't hurt us and I don't want to even discuss Omar.

So looking back at 2020 this is what we have so far with a few duds I didn't mention.

East Coast Cruisers

Arthur Bertha Dolly Hanna ISAIAS Kyle Marco (Omar kind of ..)

GOM

Cristobal in the GOM as was Fay that crossed over into the Atlantic.

Major Hurricane Laura

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season

It's getting to be time wise for something in the Caribbean to form and long distance cruisers from waves over Africa and we always watch close in. But on a weekend like this... go have a good time. Find some fresh air or cooled AC if you need but for many in the Carolinas we have a brief respite from the heat. Then the hot weather comes back and that's the problem with fronts untilthey whoosh out to sea completely; they also leave behind energy that can spring up fast into a close in coastal storm. The models haven't been awesome this year as storms appeared often that were not there so if it's quiet in the tropics... get out fast and enjoy.

But.........also........watch your local NWS before you take the boat out because just because we don't have hurricanes it doesn't mean we can't have dangerous weather.

I'll update the blog at the top if percentages from the NHC change or if the NHC puts up a circle somewhere we didn't see coming.

Be well, take care and please donate to charity.