Updated! Invest 94 Off Carolinas. Rene Forms... Joins Paulette! Tropical Storms & The Problem With Fronts.

A small area of Low Pressure close to Bermuda is getting a 40% chance to organize in highlighted area over a period of 5 days. Even if it doesn't develop, it could still drop heavy rain across the Carolinas. @7weather pic.twitter.com/p2fK6xgX9E

— Phil Ferro (@PhilFerro7) September 8, 2020

Invest 94L off the Carolinas.

Water Vapor Loop Discussion.

#ThinkingOutLoud on water vapor loop from TropicalTidbits Atlantic Wide Loop. #Paulette #Rene a lot of convection in west Atlantic... questions on the High down the road. #Caribbean #blob unusual loop for #September #HurricaneSeason #2020 pic.twitter.com/y8qwcWwb65

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 7, 2020

Also don't forget the Invest off of Africa.

I'll update in the morning.

Hope everyone had a wonderful weekend.

We rearranged things in the house.

So that happened.

See ya all in the morning.

Please keep reading if you didn't do so...

* * * 

You can clearly see Paulette on the left.

Behind her is Rene.

That old yellow circle is firing up in the Carib.

Maybe it needs it's circle back???

Lots of covection off FL SE coast.

The kitchen is sure getting crowded.

Conch Chowder anyone?

These maps are not perfect to size.

But more or less.

You can see the tracks side by side.

Similar obviously.

Things can always change down the road.

So stay tuned.

Not much to add

Rene on the right is forecast to be a Cane.

Paulette Goddard appreaed in a classic movie.

Reap the Wild Wind.

Written by a woman who lived in Key West.

Looks like a tropical sort of picture.

Key West was all about wrecking back when...

(one step down from pirates)

And sponging was a big industry.

The movie won an award for special effects.

Funny because looking at it now...

...everything looks so fake.

At the time the storm and the squid were big.

The author of the book lived in Key West.

Actually a few houses on on the beach...

...from the infamous buoy.

The house was knocked down...

..a bigger one is there.

The other side of the block is the famous.

Southern Most House.

She did love Key West.

http://keywestlou.com/category/thelma-strabel/

Now you know the rest of the story.

Seriously, it's not going to Key West.

Maybe it can find a giant eel in the Sargasso Sea..

11 AM below.

'''

Paulette on the board at 11 AM

New Cone below.

Note it moves slow then fast ...then what?

In theory 18 becomes Rene

But which one gets the Sally name?

New wave off of Africa...

...or Carolina Blob?

So many names to juggle...

... which name goes the distance?

Which is homegrown spin up?

Mike has a great tee shirt on his site.

No Greek names tho...

Haha who knew?

Buying this tee shirt today.

Maybe hang it on the wall :)

Stay tuned .. I'll update at 5 PM.

Please read the logic behind the madness below.

Cones from 5 AM

I love comparing and contrasting.

11 AM cone above.

Stays the same the next few days.

But what's with the blob and the new wave?

Hmnnn

Breaking the two depressions up this way above.

17 to the left, 18 to the right.

Canadian track map on the left.

Cone on the right.

Wish the NHC had both tracks on one map.

Why don't they do that?

I think it's a good idea.... 

...to give an overall view of both.

Anyway. 

Models

I'm going to do a grid for you.

Straight from www.spaghettimodels.com

For a boy with ADD.....

...he is so incredibly organized.....

Go figure :)

17 above.

18 below.

Yes they look similar.

But things can change down the road.

Do both stay strong?

Does one explode?

I didn't do a video this morning....

...as my voice sounds a bit gravely from asthma.

But maybe in a little bit.

You can see the front on the left....

Dove down across the Carolinas....

TD 17 with it's big elephant like trunk.

18 behind it.

And a huge moist orange area East of the Carolinas.

We have a yellow area off the Carolinas 30%

Note the orange circle off Africa 40%

It's barely off of Africa... 

...high hopes there it seems.

But which gets the Sally name?

Obviously we have Rene any day.

Come on we all want ride Sally ride ..right?

Now let's talk on the problem with fronts.

Models offer fronts in September...

..like kids pray for ice cream.

Often they show up but...

...then they collapse.

They stall, they retrograde back ...

Carolinas is like rainy season come Fall.

Carolinas where fronts fall apart.

And Charleston has had so much rain already.

It's become a rain magnet this summer.

Where does the Yellow Blob go?

Now we look at the weather map in motion for the next 3 days, and I do the next 3 as you can pretty much take the 3 day to the bank with one or two minor variations. Fronts dip down, especially that snowy system by Colorado but to the East in the Carolinas fronts are dipping down, dropping into Florida even then going flat as stationary fronts sometimes backing up back over the Carolinas. So we have a tease and a promise of Fall and a ride out to sea for tropical systems approaching the East Coast and a High that shows it's tired of being High possibly opening up and allowing them to march out to sea but will they?

If I don't trust the 5 day I sure as heck don't trust the 10 day but hey I'm watching them just like the rest of us. 

The 7 day link is below, you can loop it if you want but it basically shows some polka sort of dance steps between fronts diving, swerving, stopping, dying, raining out and then the next front does it again. So far they aren't quite sweeping out to sea. Some models show they could, other models show a high builds back in as one of the storms as a huge hurricane builds back in. It's the dance of fall.... fronts falling apart, fronts promising to sweep through and fronts going flat. What will be in a week when these waves threaten landfall or promise to swim out to sea? And, will pop up systems develop and lunge towards the low pressure off the Carolinas? That is the key here to what will actually be with Sally and Rene and the rest of the storms of 2020 in this September 2020 in a busy hurricane season when Mother Nature keeps sending us storms like steel balls being launched out of the shoot of your favorite pin ball machine. 

You can see our TDs going TS bottom right.

But off the Carolinas... something could spin up fast.

And that's interesting... at least to me.

Because these days I'm a Carolina girl.

Stay tuned!

I will update this afternoon probably after the 5 PM package.

Enjoy what's left of your Labor Day Weekend!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram