Updated 11 PM- Sally a Tale of 2 Storms - Which Hurricane Does the GOM Get? Paulettte Bermuda. Rene Not Talking on It. TD20 Seems Set to Follow the Others.

Doing a late night update on the general progress of Tropical Storm Sally as it nears the coast. The models definitely differ now on the exact point of landfall.  The NHC has moved the cone and the various warnings a bit to the East based on current trends in it's general movement; always a question if a "jog to the NE" is true movement or a jog that readjusts itself.   Note I'm not discussing Paulette but she's a beautiful looking hurricane headed to Bermuda now... and Rene barely hanging in and new waves are rolling off of Africa and this is not the end of the hurricane season it's the middle, so remember that and stay on top of your hurricane supplies, plans and precautions.  TD 20 may get a name tomorrow. More on that later, but location is everything and this blog is currently dealing with Sally.

The geographic size of Sally has expanded.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/140254.shtml Discussion 11 PM.

This graphic probably should be pulled a tad to the East.

It's less than 100 miles from Waveland to Mobile.

A little more than 30 miles from Gulfport to Moss Point.

Models from Spaghetti Models above show the they differ suddenly on the exact point of landfall. From Grand Isle Louisiana to MobileBay (and a bit into the Florida Panhandle models trace patterns showing where landfall could occur. And it doesn't move faster but slower as stearing currents begin to break down and that's why the rainfall over low lying areas along the water will get pounded by rain and surf. We'll see what they say at 5 AM. But tonight's discussion read like a report card, pointing out the current problems but also pointing out Sally's effort put in to pull herself together and become stronger but will potential be realized? It's 2020 so probably. That won't tell you where landfall will be but if Sally doesn't have an eye and she is a minimal hurricane with tropical storm force winds spread out and rainfalling everywhere across a wide area... it's not about landfall unless you are a chaser. It's about a huge swatch of the Deep South having flooding rains, power outages and an infrastructure that needs to be put back together. And, honestly a minimal Cat 1 moving along does way less long term damage to structures than flooding and if you dont' believe me anyone in East North Carolina still cleaning up from Florence and Matthew will explain that to you. Water seeps into a a home and under the hot, humid conditions without power mold begins to grow faster than you can imagine. 

It's heartbreaking on many levels and it doesn't have to be a Major Hurricane to devastate an area, anyone who went thorugh Allison in Texas can tell you that .... 8.5 Billion Dollars in damages and the highest winds were barely 60 MPH. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

From earlier Sunday...

Putting a link at the bottom to a Tweet I made for the blog. Blogger updated and it's not playing well with Twitter for some reason and it's just my thoughts on how this really is a Tale of 2 Storms. Which storm makes landfall? A weak but viable hurricane or a much stronger hurricane . and that really is the question today. Follow the NHC and the NWS for all your advice and pay attention in real time. The mets in Raleigh are already watching what will happen with the inland moisture from Sally moving in tandem with the front. Despite all the discussion and disagreement online regarding models and movement and the timing of the front and Sally's expected lunge towards the front that then begins to fall apart we still are not sure where landfall will be nor when it will be as Sally is forecast to slow down and take her time moving towards landfall while spinning over warm water that will begin to pile up onto beaches to the North and NE of the Center. 

Busy Atlantic Basin.

Paulette and Bermuda and issue.

TD 20 still TD 20

Covering Sally this morning.

You can click on Zoom Earth site on one storm.

Great site really.

Good Cone from the NHC below.

11 AM NHC Cone...

Interactive. Learn to use it.

It's very useful.

Note areas far from landfall will get storm surge.

Important part of discussion from NHC.

Speaks on steering currents being weak.

Timing is everything here.

There is also light shear ....

..that's why Sally is bottom heavy.

But that's Sally on Sunday.

What will Sally be like tomorrow night?

That is the big question.

Today it's all about sandbags and evacuations..

...for those in the path of Sally.https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm/status/1305164119184736258?s=20

Showed the Zoom Earth site above first and below the very busy colorful, crowded NHC map below. It's easier to take them all in along with satellite imagery, tracks and cones. Below is the classic page. 

Gulf of Mexico is busy.

That small area still yellow moving away ...

TS Dolly moving WNW at 13 MPH.

Expected to turn North towards the front.

Really today should be all about Sally, because Sally is threatening to make landfall along the Gulf of Mexico coast early Tuesday Morning or does the time line change down the road. In truth everything relies on how veritcally stacked Sally is and that's because IF it stacks up tight, it can intensify over very warm water close in before landfall. Yes, there is a chance for shear to appear as forecast, but is it a weak 80 MPH Hurricane a bit tilted still struggling or is it a 110 MPH Hurricane intensifying with Major Hurricane in sight? Also a stronger hurricane could bust thorugh a thin ridge easier than a weaker hurricane. Timing wise does it sweep up into the front or does the front pull it North enough to make landfall and then dump huge amounts of tropical moisture across a wide area creating flooding across a large area? 

Flooding has been Sally's signature so far.

That's currently a lot of rain far from jthe center.

Great app to use and follow them on Twitter.

That's a lot of rain.
it's an older tweet but you get the idea.

Flooding is a real concern.

Currently Sally is bottom heavy with a very intensely, wet right side that has been lashing the West Coast of Florida even though it is out in the Gulf of Mexico. The legacy of Sally so far has been huge amounts of rain, will that continue or does this turn into a very strong hurricane with dangerous winds along with rain causing flooding. Does Sally grab the front and move inland or decide to put down roots along the coastline somewhere and where exactly will she make landfall? Again the area to the right of landfall will also get a strong storm surge and flooding. Check out that current image with intense rain far from the center of Sally.  Again, this is Sunday Sally, what will Monday Sally become? That is really the question here. 

As for Paulette she's following the track forecast. Rene doing it's thing and TD 20 is 

I will update the blog tonight after we see what the next set of model runs show and really what Sally shows us as I'm concerned on timing and her ability to wrap up veritically in the atmosphere. If so then it's a different storm than what we are watching now. Mike shows this great old school, classic toy kids today actually still use at that stage in life and it shows what we mean. There are layers in the atmosphere, when they align the storm is able to evacuate energy from the bottom to the top and to grow, to breathe and to become a dangerous entity. It literally begins pumping very visible on satellite imagery from it's solid core to it's bands far away moving towards land with the power of a nuclear weapon and it doesn't need to be a Category 4 or 5 to leave that sort of destruction.But if it stays less aligned and moves fast with convection far removed from the center sliding into landfall near Mississippi and Louisiana then Alabama and the Florida Panhandle gets crunched with flooding rain. IF it tightens up, pulls together, stays over water longer it could get further West than the current cone and let's hope it doesn't hit Lake Charles with a strong punch but ANY impact from Sally will tear apart whatever was left standing from Laura and it won't be pretty.

https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm/status/1305164119184736258?s=20 watch the Tweet as I talk on the MIMIC and the various possibilities the NHC is evaluating and taking into consideration while doing their updated Cones as weather evolves in real time -  - that's why they update the Cone ever 6 hours.

So again........let's wait and see at 5 PM where we are and a bit later after the next model runs with data from recon. I'll be back then. Have a very good Sunday, but if you are in the path of Sally do everything you can to secure your property and protect your life and plan for the mean Sally and hope you get the lazy, lackadaisical Sally instead. I'm concerned that Sally could go Major and be a Category 3 hurricane but it's still hasn't shown us that its fully alligned so that's a big question. As the director has said on air often during Laura ... always prepare for one category more than we are forecasting.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

I'll leave you a song this evening. Today is about prepareing for Sally if you live in the track and if not trying to have a good Sunday.

Ps ........if anyone has a good remedy for eyes itching making it hard to read and loop with hayfever I'm all ears.... taking suggestions on Twitter but for now I'm using some meds and taking lots of showers...   later this week it should be cooler :) so that's good. Thanks for your patience with any typos.