5 PM Tropical Depression 19 Forms From 96L Knocking on Miami's Door - Paulette a Bermuda Issue & 95L Still Red. Which One Becomes Sally?

 

Short term this is a Miami problem.

Keys and up towards WPB maybe.

Uncertainity on exact center but becoming clearer.

As per discussion from NHC

Long term this is a Gulf of Mexico Problem.

A very Katrina like track without the intensity.

Forms off of SFL crosses and keeps going.

Over warm water in GOM moving slowly.

Mike is awesome and has everything in one spot.

Models shown above.

As well as the other players.

Does 19 become Sally?

Time will tell soon enough.

I'll be offline until Saturday evening.

Refer to www.spaghettimodels.com

My bottom line with TD 19 is....

...take it seriously until it's in the GOM.

This is a set up that will bring heavy rain, flooding and wind to South Florida or it could pack a real punch and come in stronger than currently forecast. I've seen it too many times to mention here so you have to keep it in mind. The cone can change tomorrow based on Recon data as the planes are going into it in the morning. Or if models show a deviation in strength or direction the cone can change. Currently Tampa is on the edge of it..that can change. What you know is there is a developing Tropical Storm off the coast of South Florida about to make landfall over a very densley populated area that has problems with flooding and many newcomers. The long term concern is of course Louisiana and Mississippi and the always popular, beautiful New Orleans area.

Keep weather alerts on in the SFL area and stay close to home, that's my advice and hopefully it won't be much to worry on but if you wake up to a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning .. don't be surprised. This is the set up I have been talking on for days when you have an area of deep tropical moisture surging up into an old dying frontal boundary draped across warm water it begs for a tropical system to form somewhere in that area. Models don't always predict small close in systems such as this until they do and then they jump aboard and offer solutions.

I'll update Saturday evening.

Please keep reading if you didn't as the blog is very relevant as it was written at 2 PM and the previous blog also discussed #95L Paulette or #Rene etc etc etc.   Yup, September 11th is definitely peak of the hurricane season, prime time... 

* * * 

2 PM is out.

Now at 80% for development in the 5 day.

70% in the 2 day.

Knocking on the door ...

What will the NHC do at 5 PM?

Discussion from 2 PM below.

https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm/status/1

304468242963017728?s=20

Above is a video on Twitter.

A world of change everywhere we go these days...

That's impressive, watching it evolve in real time.

Blobs and Invests as well as a developing hurricane in the Atlantic moving towards Bermuda have us busy watching the tropics today. Everything in life is perspective as my husband likes to point out if you are having minor surgery it seems major to you. If you live in South Florida you are wondering how strong this could develop before the Gulf of Mexico, as in order for it to get to the GOM it has to go through South Florida. Everyone from the Keys to the Cape are most likely watching and wondering.  If you are in Bermuda boarding up your property you most likely aren't interested in Invest 96L. 

So we have a circular blob with convection in the center of the blob that is maintaining it's shape and convection has become enhanced as the NHC has upped it's chances in a special update to 70% red and that usually happens when they fast track and Invest for designation. Shear is low and the water temperatures are hot and that could provide a rapid boost of energy towards development sooner rather than later. The question then remains where would it go and the models of course have multiple suggestions. 

So what do you do? Well you pay attention to your local weather statements making sure your alert mode is ON not off... and if you live in an area that is prone to flooding than take that into consideration while going out later tonight and tomorrow in the South Florida area. There is a small signature, not closed on Earthnull but when you change levels in the atmosphere the circle shifts some so it shows it is still developing. That said they can develop rapidly over that bright red tongue of the Gulfstream seen above.  IF a center is found by the NHC they most likely will upgrade this to the next stage on it's way to a named Tropical Storm later today or tonight but by morning unless something has changed we will have advisories on this I would think and if you live in the SFL area do NOT take the boat out because the atmosphere may be very messy and the streets may be flooded.  Rethink your weekend plans in the South Florida area and that includes the Florida Keys.

Out by Africa a speedy Invest 95L is carefully watching 96L hoping it doesn't steal the Sally name from it as it already has had 90% chances for a while now.  Is this Sally or Teddy? The NHC will most likely clarify the matter later today. Models do take it far to the West yet they also show where it has an escape route before slamming into the Islands; the model ensembles do have members that vote for an Island Landfall so as always when we are out beyond the 3 and 4 day we keep watching the system, the atmosphere and each model run. Also in a crowded pond what happens with one system has ramifications for the next. IF Paulette does become a strong hurricane and the 11 AM from the NHC says Paulette should be a 105 MPH hurricane in 96 hours. Everything matters when it comes to steering currents from suddenly appearing Upper Level Lows to strengthening hurricanes that could leave a wake for 96L to water ski it's way up into the Atlantic. Speed of 96L matters as it could get further West faster and then tell Paulette that no one water skiis anymore... and moves closer towards the Islands.  Everything works in tandem in flow and that's just the way it goes. So we stay tuned and let the NHC make their cone, put out their watches and warnings and check out local NWS for information in case a developing storm is offshore and we make sure our Weather Alerts are ON not off. In Miami this matters as all day long you get warnings for "marine warnings" and "thunderstorm warnings" and people get tired and turn off the alerts. If you have a kid who does that and the NHC puts a Watch or Warning up then Whatsapp your kid or Facetime them and tell them "do not take the boat out!"   and that's life in 2020.

I'll update later today. It is worth mentioning that the Gulf of Mexico may have it's own separate system unless they combine and Rene is still out there and a new wave is coming off of Africa on September 11th. As for that day that stays in our memory forever, I always remember it being hurricane season as my friend and I were talking online about a hurricane actually close to Long Island or near there and they disappeared and they weren't answering and then they broke into CNN wih the news of a passenger plane flying into the World Trade Center and then the day unraveled in bits and pieces as bits and pieces of the World Trade Center came crashing down after the 2nd passenger plane slammed in as well and well it was a time that was much like the week that we realized what Corona was before it became Covid and we watched in real time and talking online with our family members as one sports team after another canceled their season and we knew somehow out world had changed in a way that we'd remember forever.  It's still changing as we go into an attempted NFL season this weekend and we debate many decisions for way too long because it seems that everything matters.

Add in fires in California, strong fronts with hurricane force winds in Utah that were very much like the ones that devastated Iowa a week or two before and an ever changing, cascading set of events that we try to take in stride as pretending it's normal as we have gotten used to this in 2020. And, with regard to our Hurricane Season... the truth is we have been surprised many times, models haven't been perfect and we can't let our guard down on September 11th so expect the unexpected can happen and don't expect every approaching tropical storm will stay weak and move away from you. In Raleigh it's thundering loudly as tropical moisture from what was 94L has moved inland.  I'll update in real time at the top today. Please read the previous blog from this morning but so much has changed I felt a second udpate should be put out for 96L exceeding the NHC's early expectations. Read the previous blog, I am not hyping but I'm reminding you that the South Florida area from the Keys to WPB have often been "surprised" by a Tropical system that developed offshore seemingly out of nowhere and developed suddenly intensifying on landfall. That's history, learn from it. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best and keep watching the tropics because there's 95L and soon to be 97L out there too. 

Follow Phil Ferro on Twitter and watch him on air if you live in South Florida he is very good. Answering questions on Twitter in real time, doesn't get better than that!

And as always www.spaghettimodels.com is your go to source for all information tropical!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbiStorm on Twitter and Instagram

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPHnadJ-0hE

Where were you when the world stopped turning...on the September day?