Monday Night Football & Tropical Update... GOM Moisture VS Caribbean Wait & See Area at 50% NHC Area Looking To Be an Invest.

 

Dark orange/black stripes upper left cover. Front.

Watching green and purple convection bottom right.

Late Monday night update while I'm watching Monday Night Football and playing catch up on the tropics as the NHC seems to have fast tracked an area in the Caribbean for development. You have the front upper left corner and may I add that is the first of the three fronts and the Caribbean convection lower right. What's nice is we can watch this on radar in ways tonight also. Really a combination of things coming together currently, you don't need to understand Spanish to know there's moisture down there moving en mass towards a possible date with destiny. Models don't agree, what else is new? Why we watch and wait.

Radar from Puerto Rico...

..up close and personal.

Luckily Mike did a late night short update on Facebook that also gets put up on YouTube so while looping loops for myself I can listen to him talk; definitely a favorite pastime listening to Mike talk. I can tell a lot by the words he uses and well after you know someone over a long time you can tell a bit what they are thinking or not saying. He's right, early models are never reliable especially this time of year when a multitude of things can happen.  

Some models do show it being picked up by the first front but others show it getting under it and wandering around until the second front comes in to grab it but that first front is diving so its hard to imagine it trying to find a cave in the Caribbean to hide in for a while until the second front soon after. As always I wait until a defined center develops before seeing where it goes in the moisture stream noticeable on the water vapor and MIMIC and a few other sites.  Earthnull shows not much there tonight though I do have to say the Gulf of Mexico is interesting with moisture, hot and juicy waiting for the front to come down and grab it and they will run together without a name most likely but someone is going to get a lot of weather from that combo while we wait to see if somthing forms down below in the Caribbean. So pointing out there will be an undefined relationship that takes the breath away from the first cold front and that's going to cause a lot of wet weather heartbreak for people tomorrow into Wednesday along the East Coast.

It's a watch and wait and see set up.

Water is hot in the Caribbean.

And this is it's hour in time.

Moving towards October.

The chart above agrees with me.

But NHC looking at long term potential.

Understand the GOM IS more interesting.

TODAY it's more interesting.

Caribbean is always interesting...

...but often a tease with drama.

Down the road the Caribbean is a problem.

Good loop to watch below.

We are digging ...digging cold fronts.

We are going oh so frontal here..

3 count em 3 fronts.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

A video I made below up on YouTube.

Trying to get used to Bloggers new format.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.... Bless your friends and your family.

They often help keep us together and smile.