Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 31, 2016

97L On the Verge of an Upgrade. Will this become Hurricane Earl?

Very short post here.

Note the green dot in the middle the red circle.
That looks way better than 70%.
Granted needs to maintain that intensification.

Check out the loop.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Now note as 97L tries to become Earl.
It hits HOT water.

Could be a whole new ballgame real soon.

From NRL

You know how Sunday Night is the slow news night?
Nothing usually happens.
Come Monday...

Think Come Monday we will have an upgrade.
If the pattern persists.

Remember one thing....
By staying low 97L avoided interaction with land.
Took on shear but shear has been a constant.
Moving fast. Grooving West.

Time will tell...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

97L Forecast to Get a Name... 70% Chances. Models Decide They Like It. 96L on Back on Shelf..

And the winner is.........
Invest 97L
For now, for sure.
It's cruising it's way through the Islands.
And the models suddenly love it.

Note the sharp incline down the road in intensity.

Visually it's not there yet.
But it does steal your attention.
That and the wave coming off of Africa next.
Note small little 96L in between.

But you can see from Dvorak below it's not so messy.

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Where's 97L going?
West for now.
Possibly may pull north some later.
Much depends on Intensity.
IF 97L out performs the models..
...or hits the high end.
It will want to move more towards the poles.
And break away from it's ongoing Westward movement.

Again this is what 97L looks like with the contrast on.. 

I do think down the road 96L may have a future.
Just not today.
We may not be done with 96L .....
...time will tell.

And, shows the strength of the High that 97L is going West.
As it really wants to pull more to the North.

Nicest view of it right now is on this satellite 

I often point out the site

Ever play pirates?
X marks the spot.
97L has crossed into the Caribbean.

And going to  is like..
...a trip down to the Caribbean.
Or talking to your favorite cousin who lives down there.
They email you what happened and send pictures :)

Look around for yourself...
...for newest updates.

Doesn't that make you want to hop on a plane?
Tropical pictures during the Hurricane Season.

So stay tuned as models indicate Invest 97L becomes Earl.
Somewhere between Tropical Storm and Category 2 Hurricane.

Just remember currently it's still an Invest.
Not a named storm.

Y'all check back later.
I'm having a berry smoothie for breakfast here in FL.

Pacing myself for the big bridal shower later.
While I'm doing the whole Miami Beach Fancy Bridal Shower Thing.. has all the loops, models and maps.

Please read the previous post ...
...for my thoughts on Dave Schwartz and his passing.
It's not the same without him.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Hope he's in hurricane heaven entertaining Bill Gray.

For some of the old timers to cheer them up...

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Sad Passing of Dave Schwartz TWC. Invest 97L Approaches the Islands

Invest 97L now has 60% chances of development in 5 days.
Note the track for these Invests above has been consistent.
Each update an extrapolation of the previous one.

Note Invest 97L is moving rapidly West across the basin.
Invest 96L lags behind following in it's moist wake.

There is every reason to believe that Invest 97L could develop.
It would need to SLOW DOWN and hit a sweet spot.
Sweet Spot = Low Shear + HOT Water.

The sheer speed of 97L is inhibiting it's organization.
As it tries to wrap it outruns it's premature circulation.
At times you can see it and then it rushes off to the West.
Too fast to let the circulation totally wrap.
We've had a few fast movers like this in years with a strong high.
And sometimes they develop in the Caribbean. 
If it gets that far watch out Mexico and possibly Texas.

The oceanic heat map shows how that could be a problem.

These push me pull me attempts at development can be seen below.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Also you can see Invest 96L left far behind.

The Salient information is below.
Note some models show Cat 3 Status.
Do I have your attention now?

Again this is down the road.
Long term vs short term.

See how easy they are to define now vs the other day.

Round, rolling along too fast to develop.
If and when it slows down... 
Watch out.
Note as it reaches the end of the High's strength... hits hotter water temps.

Might  be a lethal combination...
...should it get that far. 
And at this point it may indeed.

I'll go into depth tomorrow on this.
And discuss Invest 96L behind it.
Also viable according to some models.

In truth tonight it's hard to think on much.
The passing of Dave Schwartz today has eclipsed the waves.
Everyone knew that Dave was ill, battling cancer with courage.
And everyone knew Dave had beat cancer before.
Everyone hoped he would do so again.
Today he passed on.

It's sad. 
Simple sad... 
Truly sad.

The man had so much life.
So much humor, wit and creativity.
He made weather fun.
He made weather easy.
And he made people feel good.

An older woman years back told me he practically saved her life.
I asked, "How?"
She said she had been ill, confined to bed for months.
She was in pain, she could not sleep.
She would watch Dave late at night.
He made her smile, he made her laugh.
He made her forget the pain.
He entertained.
She felt he helped save her life.
Or at least her sanity and emotional health.
In truth that was Dave.

He spoke fast and cheerfully explained the weather.
He brought life to far away places.
He educated many on how to read satellite imagery.

From old women recuperating to young kids watching TWC..
He was loved.

Mike from said it all:

Over the years so many people have told me that.

One of the best teams at TWC was Jim Cantore and Dave Schwartz.
At times they worked side by side.
It was the greatest times.

In his own words this was Dave Schwartz

Witty and playful to the end.

This was Dave talking fast doing the Tropical Update
Check it out...

2007... Dave doing shtick.
Like only Dave could.

Dave was like your favorite teacher in high school.
He made boring classes fun and interesting.
He was your favorite uncle at Thanksgiving dinner.
Dave was a big smile mixed with passion.

We remember him fondly.
Hard to think on his passing.
We wish his loved ones prayers.
We were all made to feel like he was our family.

Just so sad.
Dave was an Icon.
Plain, simple and true.

A good soul.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... once Dave danced and spun on air.. 
Singing a song, cracking up the crew.. 
Couldn't find that video.. it's there somewhere.
Miss you Dave-O

Friday, July 29, 2016

INVEST 96L & 97L IN COMPETITIVE RACE... Long Range Discussion on GOM/Yucatan System

Let's look at the bigger picture below.
Keep that in mind while reading discussion.

I put this image here to show where Invest 96L is located.
Very visible as a specific entity.
Also note the wave eyeing it from the African Coast.

Further WEST is Invest 97L moving west rapidly.
Impacts to the islands may begin this weekend.

Note the discussion out of San Juan 

You can see below how close Invest 97L is to the Islands.

Unless something not expected happens...
...this is a rain event.

Depending on the trajectory over the next few days..
..we could have something more to talk about later in the forecast period.

A lot of this is based on "IF" it develops.
"IF" it survives.
It is logical to expect it to survive.
As what?

Tropical Depression Status is in play.
Tropical Storm Status perhaps.

Shows the ability for it to ramp up to named status.
I'm not saying for sure but it's possible.
Better than a guess.
Iffy sometimes especially when there are 2 systems close together.

Invest 96 seems to currently have lower modeling intensity.

Earlier this seemed reversed.
Note new models show it staying low.
Earlier some models showed a northward bias in tracks.

 Then going to Invest 97 we see more westbound models.

Currently I don't believe the models have a good handle.
Other than Westbound Ho!
Minimal intensity storms possible.
Not probably but possible one gets advisories.

A lot will depend on how Invest 97L looks tomorrow morning.
And if it looks worth the trip recon will go down and take a look.

ft-animated.gif (1120×480)

Invest 96L moving steadily towards the Islands.
Distant possible tracks dancing in it's head.

There are also so models showing something nearing the Yucatan.
Getting into the Gulf of Mexico.
Some have said that's from this Invest.
And, yet you can see moisture coming off the coasts of Colombia.
Lingering around Central America off and on.

Another Tropical Wave is near the Bahamas.
Interactions with Upper Level Lows tickling the convection.

Going to leave you here with another video.
I like to mix things up and share different points of view.

Watch the video and read his thoughts.
I agree.

There are signs in the Atlantic Basin that this will be a busy season.
Mid August should find us knee deep in action.

96 looks better now that it did yesterday.
Again its hitting that sweet spot.
Warmer water.
Light shear.

Not the best environment but better than we have seen.

IF you are in the Islands pay close attention to local weather sources.

Good site to use for Caribbean Weather.

As for distant 96...

rb_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Embryonic sort of waves.
Not named storms.
Yet definitive entities.
With so many possibilities.

Stay tuned I'll update later if I can..
...if there is something to update.

Bottom Line.
Let's hear it from the source.
NHC Discussion.

Cones for Invests

What is evident is if they hang together.
One or both could be problems down the road.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. At home in sultry, balmy, beautiful Miami.
Already had sushi for lunch with some of the crew.
Good to be home.
Again sorry for any typos.
Not on my usual machine and need some sleep.
Perhaps tonight... 

Invest 96 Looking Good. Invest 97 Getting Closer Moving FAST. Keep Watching.

athhp.gif (873×397)

This is a short post today as I'll be in transit this morning on my way to Florida. Bridal Shower for my soon to be daughter-in-law. You thought I was going for Earl didn't you? Come on... I know you are thinking that I'll be that much closer to tropical action in Miami. Smiling. Always good to be in Myami and see my kids and my friends and my tropical possibilities.

What you need to watch today is the above water temperature loop. As Invest 96L and 97L move rapidly West they get closer the warm water. Again warm water is only one part of the equation but in order to get water to boil... you need to start with water and then add heat. They also get further from their enemy SAL. Right now life is simplistic for them, if either or both develop then there are many details and technicalities to discuss.

rb_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Wanted to highlight Invest 96L is looking good this morning.
Impressively good all things considered.
Jim Williams from Hurricane City seems to like 96L better.
That could change down the road but tossing it out there.

97L has signs of life too.
Again 97L is hauling ass way too fast.

rbtop0.gif (720×480)

But the main point here is they have convection.
Need treat considering how dry the Atlantic has been so far.

You can watch 97L approach our side of the world.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Don't ya hate traveling on early flights?
You worry you won't wake up in time..
Then you wake up an hour early....
...and check the satellite loop.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

I'll discuss models later today.
Going to be hard for Invest 97L to maintain a roll..
..while rolling that fast West.
Keep watching.

Easy to discuss multiple destinations.
They have to make it past the dry air and cooler waters.

Then we have something to talk about.

Sorry for any typos.. 
..working on old computer as laptop is packed.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Has all the links and loops and graphics.
That's a lot of "ands" ;)

Ps Never write off a season because it's slow in July.

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Updated!! INVESTS 96L 97L Will They Impact Islands? GOM? FL? Stay Tuned...

Track at 8 PM for Invests is an extrapolation of 2PM below.

Going to share an online friend's blog.
Good thoughts.
We all have good thoughts.
We tell the story a little different.
By reading many we always learn something.

Good graphic.

Truth is an Invest is potential.
If the tropical wave didn't have potential.
It would just be a tropical wave.
The NHC tags them as such when they see potential.
So keep watching.
And, yes the track stays below Florida.
But as anyone in Florida knows.
When a system is to the South of you...
..never take your eyes off of it!

Please keep reading if you have not done so.
The thoughts expressed earlier are still valid.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.
@Bobbistorm on Twitter.

40% Invest 96L
30% Invest 97L

Suddenly many things from nothing.
As I've said many times...
...things change fast in the Tropics.

Keeping in mind this is late July.
Trying to keep the hype way low.
Staying logical but amused.

Let's look at the together and then separately.

There they are side by side.
Note 97L is a bit higher up than 96L
Remembering 96L just leaving African Coast.
97L seems to be moving at a fast clip.
Yesterday it was just one large messy area.

Easy to see that the Islands really need rain.
They do that's true.
Rain vs a Hurricane.

As I said earlier this is the Waves VS SAL

I'm sure Cantore is watching.
His travel agenda may be calling.

Recon will go in tomorrow if needed.
Meaning if it warrants.

This IS what Tropical Weather is all about.
One day nada, nothing having for the next 5 days.
12 hours or so later and there are twin Invests headed West.

Models currently show a colorful spread.
All basically the same..kind of.

97L is on top as it's most important for most of us..
96L below... westbound or fish storm.

As I said this morning once they get past 60 West..
Water gets warmer. 
Caribbean is hot, hot, hot.

Earl in the Caribbean would be a bull in a china shop.
Messy, lots of broken things.
Up over the islands might be better.
Though again the Bahamas are warm and waiting.


Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits Models.
Sticking with 97L as it's sort of in our face right now.

On Friday there is a double barreled High over South Florida

Note it shows rain despite the High Pressure.
A few days later...

And then........oddly the High backs up a bit.

Note it just shows a L
For Low... 
That's as much as we know... for sure.

So stay tuned and check back often.

I'll be updating later this evening after the 8 PM.
And update the thoughts.

Yes it doesn't look like it's aiming at South Florida.
It also is aiming at Islands, Cuba, Carib, Bahamas..
And then there's Invest 96L 

Invest 96L could be a problem.
A lot of intangibles.

IF these waves can develop.. either of them.
Despite the SAL and all that dry air...
I'd worry as we get into August and September.

Just reading Tweets online.
My thoughts exactly.
Putting this here in real time.

And... note today is the birthday of Miami.
Yes, that's a big deal.
So let's think about the ultimate September Remember storm..
The Great Miami Hurricane.

Long version:

Short version:

From Miami to Palm Beach... 

One last thought for now.
Remember I've said this a few times.
Last week or two Upper Level Lows ....
...were in the Florida Straits westbound.
Wouldn't be a big shock to see a weak named system appear there.

Patterns.. upper air patterns.
Watch the patterns and keep your eye on the Invests.
Model discussion added in later tonight.

Seems like 97L has it's eyes on the Islands for now.
Now it can use some convection.
Warmer waters to the west.
And 97L in a rush to get to them.

Playing some Santana while packing for Miami.
Or as we Miamians call it MYAMI

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Updating later this evening.

Again a lot of talk on that Heat Dome.
Extreme Heat is often broken by tropical systems.
But that's down the tropical road... 
Stay tuned... 
Hoping 2016 isn't a redo of the 2012 Hurricane Season..

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