Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Force Field Up.... Models Show Tomas Turning North..

Well.. north after it hits Haiti and other islands possibly in it's track...

Not sure what we have done to be so lucky but will take the lucky streak and watch Tomas spin. Hope he does not bring too much havoc to Haiti as Lord knows they don't need any more.

Fins won, the household here is happy as hell on Halloween...about as happy as us Miamians can get these days.

Going to a party tonight, not a costume one but an engagement party for a friend's daughter and going to hang out with my daughter.

As for Tomas.. I suppose things could change but for now the models seem pretty set on a turn to the north.

Going to stay away from the youtube game just now as Proud Mary keeps on rolling is rolling through my head and hoping to save that one for Walt, if we get to Walt.. giggling... okay ya got me... I didn't realize the V name was Virginie...what is this the list from stalker hell lol roflmao.

Oh my... oh me.... oh my... when they gonna get around to a Hurricane Bobbi??

Besos Bobbi

Good Morning Tomas

Waiting for the 11 AM to post this morning... need good coffee, good discussion with a friend and to wait and see what the NHC says at 11 as .... some things can wait... and some things cannot!

Tomas is big... 100 mph and not going anywhere fast... he'll be around for a while.

My brother is sitting here listening to Carole King and the Carpenters.. I really do NOT need to hear another chorus of Close to You... he definitely is caught in my life not his... he should be listening to Boy George or something...

Anyway... watch Tomas spin while I do breakfast with Shary ;)

Besos Bobbi

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Hurricane Tomas... Trick or Treat

Trick or Treat is the question here?

Tomas is poised to bring tropical troubles to someone in the Caribbean basin very shortly, after punching the islands in the stomach with endless rain and wind.

This is a HUGE system, look at the size of it and note it's intensity in all directions. Not some little small dot of weather with a ten mile wide area of strong winds... this storm is the Anti Storm of the 2010 season.. not the norm and not just some far away fluff to worry about that is going to possibly threaten Bermuda without affecting any other land mass.

Please pay attention to Tomas if you have interests in the Caribbean ... and if you have interests in closer places you might want to keep, keeping an eye on Tomas ... just in case.

Took a walk on Hollywood Boardwalk tonight with my brother, incredibly strong breeze, live music up and down the Boardwalk and people in and out of costumes walked about, rollerbladed or biked up and down the boardwalk on the edge of November with one last holiday weekend of October to celebrate.

Busy here hanging out with the kids and their endless comings and goings as they watch movies, talk and do what kids do... I keep watching Tomas on my fone while movies play and kids play and I nibble at sushi or debate devouring the weight watchers ice cream.

I wonder... if this is all so cut and dry with regard to the track of Tomas. Can the 2010 Forcefield stay in effect long enough to continue to protect the US? Probably... still got a long time to go as some models have it looping around and hanging around the Caribbean while other models project it crisscrosses it's way north through the Mona Passage and makes a bee line to .. yup.. Bermuda :)

Who knows?

I do know one thing though...this is no storm to turn your back on and assume won't cause any trouble.

So as Tomas spins enjoy Halloween, enjoy what is left of October because Tomas will take us into November tropically speaking and November storms are often more unpredictable than October ones and am still personally hoping to see Walt form ...Waiting for Walt.. sounds like a Hollywood Movie, comedy... a little drama... wonder who would play Walt?

Take care and don't forget to tuck Tomas in and be thankful he is not raining or your parade tonight on Lincoln Road on South Beach.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Friday, October 29, 2010

Tropical Storm Tomas to Form Entering Carib... BIG STORM...

Tropical Storm Tomas is forming in the Atlantic on it's way into the Caribbean as you read this and watch the breaking news on the packages possibly found on planes around the country. Big breaking news day Internationally, personally busy with my son who is doing and family things... almost forgot to watch the tropics but that really never happens for me... just goes on back burner for a day or so.

Carefully watch the model variables over the next day for the HUGE, massive, BIG storm that Tomas will become. He should be upgraded at five...if not don't know what they are waiting for as I don't think he can wait until 11 PM.

He's entering the island radar now and we are not talking Island Time.

Incredibly beautiful, late season storm with a possibly, problematic track and this storm will NOT going quietly into the Tropical Night.

More later if I can get around to posting but warning, warning Will Robinson the Hurricane Season of 2010 is NOT over.

Besos Bobbi
Ps..say safe and always pay attention the weather and the news..

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Tropical Storm Shary Forms in the Atlantic

This is going to be a short post for a short lived storm named Shary.

Shary formed this evening in the Atlantic and will come close to Bermuda many storms have done so far this year. One of my kids said tonight "the force field is still up and alive" meaning the force field that so far has protected the United States from a landfalling storm this very busy tropical year. That force field might be tested next week as a storm seems to be forming down in the Caribbean that could nick Florida on it's way out to sea but that's a storm for another day.

Today's storm of the hour is Shary and she deserves her hour in the sun...

Models for "Tomas" are here as follows as I know that anyone reading this is more interested in what may form in the Carib than another Atlantic storm moving towards Bermuda that will curve out to sea in a few days.

It's a beautiful tropical night in Miami, the palm fronds are dancing in the balmy breeze as a weak cold front moves towards the Miami area. Shary seems far away as people watch the World Series and talk on the Miami Heat. Another day in paradise. As each cold front moves towards our beautiful city and feels the effect of cooler winds and lighter humidity the hurricane season seems a little bit further away. Halloween is around the corner, goblins and pumpkins decorate the stores and I wonder if there is the ghost of a chance of a hurricane grazing by the coastline in a week or so. Shary shows us that the tropics are not dead yet and with a La Nina Winter coming on the chance of a few storms popping up like Shary will exist for a little while longer.

Things are good here, fine and dandy just been a bit busy and didn't have time for a longer post earlier. In reality, there wasn't much to post about as the orange and yellow tropical beach balls that grace the front of the NHC main page are nothing more than mere possibilities and Shary is a small storm that should not last very many days.

Jaws music.... the model tracks tonight for the storm that may form soon and may become a bigger player down the road.

Take a nice walk in the morning at sunrise or at sunset, watch the moon come up and the stars come out and give thanks for all you have. Worry on Tomas another day and watch Shary spin out in the Atlantic.

Sweet Tropical Dreams Bobbi
Ps... personally would love to see the season get to Walter ;)

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

No More Richard & Not Much Goin On In the Tropics ... but wxr wxr everywhere...

So, the final advisory on Richard has been written and the tropics is temporarily free of tropical activity. There are a few waves out there still threatening to try and make a run for the Shari name and I do think one will form this year will.. it's almost over but not yet over.

Someone on one of the boards said a few months back before we went hog wild with storms that until you get those first few cold fronts and an intermingling of hot and cold air masses... its as if nothing can really get going worth talking about. I think they may have been right as I look back in retrospect.

Today the air masses across America not only mingled they rocked and rolled and created weather more violent than anything the tropics have offered up so far this year on American Soil. A lot of storms but they have all managed to miss messing up any big coastal city along the Hurricane Belt.

Am worried a bit on cities on the West Coast on the belt known as the "Ring of Fire" as the earth has been shakin' lately. The Gulf of Mexico... Indonesia.. a few places and even though the geologists always say "it's not related" I think it is related in some way that is hard to explain... something geological akin to the butterfly wing theory. Not going to wax poetic on geologists tonight... no... not me, never really did geologists personally, I mean how can you love a man who is love with rocks more than wind and waves and the moon shining down on you at night? (Don't answer, that was really a rhetorical question and an editorial statement.)

So... a strong cyclone like winter weather system punched the Mid-West with the fury of a strong Tropical Storm leaving it's calling card for a La Nina Winter. Watch out! This was like that coming attraction with the Jaws music... just trying to catch your attention, stay tuned.. it's only going to get worst.

Which leads me to thinking on the movie Gidget. Yes .. I said Gidget. Well, for one it's a private sort of joke between a bunch of us and no one really gets Gidget in that it's really a love triangle in ways. And, Gidget was a bit weather obsessed, ya know? I mean all surfers are..they live and die for the big ones and they know more about weather and what's going to happen this weekend than most government meteorologists writing papers and reports. They live and breathe the wind and surf and all sorts of terms that only surfers would understand. we have Gidget. She wants to ride the wild waves... and is totally obsessed with the Big Kahuna and as equally obsessed with the young love of her life "Moondoggie" How he got that name I don't know and I don't want to know... too much moonshine or staring... stares up at the moon too much lol :) (Will drive you crazy you know) so instead of her singing Moon River she climbs onto her surf board and falls in love with surfing. She is very OCD and very anal retentive on Moondoggie and worrying on the Big Kahuna all at the same time. It's sort of like Twister in ways ;) I think she wears a lot of little white bathing suits that's a lot like Helen Hunt in her white tank top that was made of teflon.

How did it really turn out? Who knows... the story ended with a bunch of badly done remakes and she is probably surfing some beach somewhere, her kids grown up, an empty nester... going back for a degree in oceanography or Early Pacific Indian Art and on
Facebook with the Big Kahuna cause after the breakup with Moondoggie she swore off old boyfriends and found herself a new beach, a new guy and she's still getting her philosophical advice from you know who.

Life is funny. It takes you down lots of new highways, opens lots of new doors... wrong song.. hold on ;)

Nothing under the sun is new, it repeats in patterns that are hard to see like the wings beating on a butterfly.

Hurricane Season segues into the Winter with one or two last moment flings with an Indian Summer storm in late October or early November and then... we spend our time studying how this season went down and longing for next season. Someone wins the World Series (but it won't be the Yankees this year) and the holidays come on so soon that there are already beautifully decorated Christmas Trees at the Mall.

We are always in such a rush... sometimes we got to stop and smell the roses or feel the spray of the surf or... enjoy the way a rock feels in our hands (rolling eyes) and well there's basketball and Ice Hockey and it goes on and on and on.

This Pre-Season Winter Storm will probably have a huge price tag for clean up and Jim Cantore will figure out eventually why the barometric pressure was so low but the winds were not that high. The Ghost of the Edmund Fitzgerald... is still out there somewhere ... never to be forgotten, remembered forever by a beautiful song dedicated to it's memory.

As for me.. I am going to back to Miami where I will be for a good while...while I watch my "baby" recuperate from surgery to remove the pins that are in his arm from his run in with a palm tree. And, family stuff... reunions coming up, my mother, my daughter's new apartment, arguing again with some community college that can't figure out if it has all it's papers or not. I'm impossible when it comes to the baby (who is probably reading this about now..) but he is my youngest and we are very close and he's an amazing kid. Loves weather ;)


Somewhere there is a fifteen year old girl who loves to do something, be it dance or politics or talking to cute boys or riding waves or skiing... somewhere there is a fifty year old woman trying to figure out what she loves or if she is lucky she knows. Like the people I met this week at the Spice Store.. they love cooking, they love talking to people... What do you love? Figure it out and enjoy it.

As for us weather people.. we know what we love and we enjoy it every day of the year even if the wind is not blowing 45 mph or the rain is not coming down in buckets, it's always there, always changing, always rearranging the landscape. Guess we are a bit restless. Hey...surfs up somewhere... Find your passion and enjoy it.

Be back soon with more information on Shari who is out there somewhere wanting to form and wanting to come and blow your house down...

Sweet Tropical Dreams


Just remember...nothing is new under the sun and history is always repeating ...

Monday, October 25, 2010

Writing and Weather

This is what the line looked like on the radar:

This is what it looked like from the ground below:

But, this post is not just about stormy weather or weather chasing it's about life and writing and the Synchronicity and Serendipity of living in the moment and trying to record what you see...what you feel...what you think as a writer while waiting for the perfect weather shot to appear.. sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't but while waiting you learn about more than weather... you learn about life around you.

Erik Larsen, the author of Issac's Storm, once told me that serendipity is a writer's real muse. It caught my attention as I have often be caught in the odd position of being a muse when I am really a writer ...and so I wonder...where is my muse if I am the muse?

I suppose weather is my muse and serendipity and being caught in the flow of life and the wind.

Sometimes you have to go where life takes you and sometimes you have to take a walk on a windy day and see what blows your way.

The weather was warm, flirting with the 80s and an outflow boundary was racing towards this part of the Carolinas. I'm here another day before going home to the warm, tropical colors of my real home. I'll be back to watching waves breaking on Hollywood Beach and having a late night snack at the Waterways in Aventura, but today I am still here watching Autumn and Indian Summer like weather that are coloring my palette with yellow leaves falling in the wind. I had a need to feel the warm sun on my face and feel the wind while watching the outflow boundary descend.

Serendipity is finding a beautifully scented spice store that just opened in a nearby outdoor shopping area still under construction. I passed it the other day on the street and made a mental note to go over and check it out. And, I only had an hour or so to enjoy a walk before the rain would fall and I'd have to straighten my hair again :( Women weather chasers have so many problems guys just don't have . . .

After days of what seems to me to be frigid cold weather it was warm again, not Miami warm but warm. The new shops that are being built have a French Village theme and it was just perfect for my mood. I walked into the spice store and oh my goodness... the scent of various spices and herbs wafting in the air.... conjuring up far away places with exotic geographic names. A friendly man met me at the door, explained how their new shop works... suggesting I should try a few of the different spices and leaving me to be lost in the scents of Ireland, Provence and Catalonia. Cinnamon from the Orient... Amazing little store. An amazingly nice couple who run it as well and without taking a walk and needing to kill some time before the line came through ..I wouldn't have met them or had a chance to think on interesting conversation mixed in with recipes and suggestions on what to put on the spaghetti squash I am making for dinner. We came up with a mix of spices that one might ordinarily put on ham..which I don't eat or pumpkin and squash which I do eat. Smells good...

When I entered the store the sky was blue and if you blinked you could open your eyes and think you were in a French Village somewhere. Twists and turns of fate took this couple to a place where they needed to re-evaluate their goals and what they wanted to do with their life. Good advice for anyone our age... revisit your passions, figure out what you enjoy doing the most and figure out what opportunities there are out there. Mind you... many in their position might have gone about life trying to bang their head against the wall and tried to continue doing what they were doing but with wisdom they stopped, took a deep breath and found the scent of rich spices in the scented wind and opened up a Savory Spice Shop. I wish them well... it's a store that works well with North Carolina's passion for fresh cooked local foods and produce that are cooked with natural spices blending the old with the new and creating a new Southern Cuisine that is more natural with the emphasis on something other than deep fried main dishes though imagine some of those spices would work well on a BBQ rub.

I was at a place recently that is really nice but did not really speak to me as I am not much into farms, it's called Fearrington Village. I went to an event there where a speaker was speaking. I didn't think much of it as I'm more into the Deep South than I am into Colonial Country South, but I had a long talk with a chef who gave me a walk around the grounds. He took me into the Greenhouse where they grow their own herbs and even their own fruits and vegetables to be used in their highly rated restaurant. The chef went on and on about the importance of the use of freshly ground herbs in their unique dishes and nothing else really made an impression on me ... A nice building, I've seen columns before and I'm from Florida where cattle ranches is not unusual and I was raised on Southern Cooking so... that didn't impress me but the fact that they grew their own herbs, their own greens... that impressed me. It is a very big part of the food movement here in this part of the New South.

So, I wish the nice people at the Savory Spice Shop well and if you are anywhere in the Triangle area... take a ride and check them out. But, I warn you ... you will walk away wondering on recipes and wishing you could travel to Madagascar or Jamaica or Scotland and you will go home with cute little packages or jars of your favorite muse of a spice that sang to you..

While inside I looked outside and noticed the frontal boundary was moving in.. I ran outside, took a few pics and it was wonderful.

One minute the sky was summer blue, Carolina Blue and the next minute a dark, violent looking line was covering half the sky trailing cloud debris and a wicked wind began to blow :)

look at that sky... 30 minutes after the sky was Carolina Blue...

Just goes to show you ...where ever you live, where ever you travel to you can always find interesting people, wonderful weather and inspiration.

The weather will be wicked today in the mid section of the country and if my son is reading this there are weather warnings up for the people on the Plains in Iowa and Illinois. Been told that the winds on the Great Lakes might be as strong as the winds that blew the Edmund Fitzgerald down back in 1975. That was one strong wind and one great song.

In the tropics Richard is trying to keep his head about him during a rather fast crossing of the Yucatan but he is still over land and we will soon see what he has left of him when he emerges into the Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Shari seems to be a possibility as I said in an earlier post.

And, here in the Carolinas the sun has gone and has hidden again, gray skies and cold air fill my life again. But, the scent of the spices is now mixed with the scent of my bedroom and the spaghetti squash is baking in the oven and I am going to try the blend of maple, black pepper, coriander, turmeric, ginger and nutmeg to name a few.

Trying to save some space in my diet for a pastelitos on Thursday :)

Writing and weather.... if you can't write... take a walk, stand on a cliff near the water and watch the waves, inhale the scent of the wind and the ocean and listen to the story that is whispering to you in the wind. And, if you really enjoy forests (like someone I know..) go find a shack in the woods and sit there until serendipity speaks to you...

May you have sweet smelling tropical dreams.. Bobbi

Richard Moving Across the Yucatan... Shari to form soon?

So the big question today that hurricane trackers are dealing with while we watch Richard do Belize and the Yucatan is.... is Shari going to form from a late season Cape Verde Wave and be an overachiever and a late bloomer down in the Carib?

Well, while storm chasers chase twisters in Texas and while Richard huffs and puffs his little heart out models are showing development of a storm named Shari that will make it into the Carib and blows up bigger than Richard or any other Carib storm so far this year. Could that happen? Possibly...

Good discussion by the wonderful Jim Williams on Richard and the history of hurricanes in this area of the world.

No one does it better if you ask me...he takes you there and shows you the detail:

Jac on on posted some amazing reasons to worry on Shari forming, pretty too... like computer, weather art..

Great video of the twister in Rice, Texas (have to wait thru a commercial but awesome and very real video)

Another with an always excellent article from the Washington Post on the Twister last night that was real and not a movie. I saw the man being interviewed this morning on TV, he was clear it was awesome but he wouldn't want to do it again.

I've chased a few hurricanes, been chased by a few hurricanes as well, chased some waterspouts in the Keys but Twister Chasing... for people far braver than me but hey if I saw one forming I know I would be mesmerized and shooting pics rather than thinking on which way to run, amazing video. Know a few great storm chasers who have gotten shots that grace the cover of books but to have one form while you are driving, touchdown, dance across the horizon, to see all of that passion and power and fury live in real time... can't imagine though I do know what it feels like to be in the eye of a hurricane and wonder at the stillness in the calm of the storm and watch mesmerized as the eye wall begins to descend back faster than anyone can imagine until you can see it coming at you as one entity down the street, amazing, weather is always amazing, even a beautiful summer day or fall day or a balmy, breeze at the beach.

So... one thing I do know it is better to chase the storm than to be chased by the storm and one thing I have learned from my friends and always knew...whether it was Jim or Jack or Joe or Reed or Mike ... when the wind blows, you got to get out there, feel it, document it, live it and describe it... enjoy it... feel it rushing through you with so much life and passion and well... it's awesome, trust me.

So.... waiting on Shari to form and have sat at the ocean many times with my best friend Sharon feeling the wind from a storm nearby so have a deep, personal interest in seeing Shari form ;)

As for Richard, I think he is going to do the Tex Mex dance that so many storms this year and other years have done. But, he is moving fast enough to survive the crossing and think we will have him around a little longer.

Be back later with more info after I take a walk in the sunshine and enjoy the weather I've got ;) and yes my pretty moon chasing friend, watched you staring up at the moon one night when you didn't see me watching but Moon River is the wrong song for this Tex Mex storm...

Besos Bobbi
For all those weather people who watch the full moon from the middle of the street and stare up at it or from a beach with waves dancing at your feet or on an empty plain watching for a wall cloud to drop down dramatically or who watch stars through the clouds late at night through their window...

So weird, still can't watch the stupid Carpenters without feeling pain but Selena makes me smile lol... go figure, would have thought it would be the other way around. A true Tex Mex gal... ya know...

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Hurricane Richard Close to Landfall...not going quietly into the tropical night...

Think he may even make it across land and into the Gulf as more than a remnant low.

The Yucatan is low land, part of his system will always stay over water giving him extra oomph...

Don't think it's time to write him off just yet.

Enjoying watching him spin... and watching Fins on TV.

Don't think the season is over yet ;)

Keep watching.... Besos Bobbi

Friday, October 22, 2010

Richard Primed for Intensification

Not sure it will be rapid but there is definitely something going on there and thought it was worth mentioning.

Nice development all afternoon, pressure is dropping... winds should get stronger.

I think Richard will indeed become a hurricane... Hurricane Richard... looking very probable.

Good Shabbos... Besos Bobbi
Ps The Chicken Marengo came out really good too ;)

Tropical Storm Richard and Chicken Marengo

Richard is a bit difficult to watch the way we watch other storms. He doesn't GO anywhere. He doesn't DO anything. He just sits there pumping like some beating heart in a Jr. High Science Lesson.... in, out, in, out... deep color but not a lot else happening. But, the point is he is not only treading water but he is waiting for the right time, the right moment when he can strengthen into a stronger storm.

Lesson 101 in Caribbean Tropical Meteorology is find your groove and when the shear relaxes if your system is stacked right and maneuvers just so over very warm water than intensification will happen. If you stop pumping, stop treading water you go glub, glub down into the Tropical Storm Graveyard of Tropical Storms that never became Hurricanes.

Richard is primed for intensification as he sputters about in the Caribbean trying to find that groove.

I'm personally trying to find a good recipe for Chicken Marengo that I lost a few years back but I can look online, I can play around, I can cook up something like the wind blows in a hurricane, fast and enjoying every moment.

For now Richard is most likely going to do just what the NHC says it will do in the short term and in the long term... oh Richard could cause quite a fuss down the tropical road.

Where might he go down that tropical road??

You can watch him here on this nice loop... look at him treading water or possibly moving a bit to the northwest.

You can also watch the systems up stream over the United States as to what will affect Richard if he makes it past Central America and the Yucatan.

I like the name Richard. I dated a very nice guy named Richard once. One of the nicest men I ever knew though he was a boy at the time but have heard he is still a very nice man. He was very kind, very sweet, very giving. I didn't appreciate in those impulsive days of my youth how really rare those qualities are and how hard they are to find.

Funny how we don't change much from who we were once a long time ago to who we are now. Some of us are meaner, some of us are nicer, some of us are funnier and some of us still can rip the heart out of the other while we giggle and our face hurts from laughing so hard. Some people always seem to bring us pain, some storms bring us rain. We love what we love and we are who we are and we do so love weather, don't we?

Weather, laughter and those hard to define spiritual qualities that go bump in the tropical night.

I'm cold. My toes are cold.... yeah yeah Popsicle toes lol and cannot wait to feel the warm tropical water on my toes on Wednesday when I will be back "home" and hoping Richard will wait to threaten Florida until Halloween I'd be much obliged. Cause I would love to see Richard make a run for the roses but personally I think IF he does do Florida down the road it would be somewhere between Tampa and Fort Walton Beach depending on if a front drops far enough down to pick up Richard... IF he lingers a while longer and does not rain himself out over the Yucatan. Water is warmer in the deep tropics and there is less shear. It does happen but not often.

Opal comes to mind and so does the 1921 Tampa Hurricane though it really did a job on many small towns in the general area of Tampa Bay.

Read it ... happens... not saying Richard will do that but one day, one storm will come along and Tampa Bay will get hit again.

As for me... going to rest up this week, leave TWC on mute somewhere in the house tomorrow in case it blows up wild (probably won't) and going to make my best version of Chicken Marengo for the Jewish Sabbath and wait and see just where Richard will be on Saturday Night.

Don't you just love the tropics in late October? Got news for you...there are more possible storms forming and do think this year will bring us a Shari somewhere and think we may go into November with front's dipping down picking up tropical entities that are northeast bound.

Keep the Faith.. Bobbi

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Tropical Storm Richard... as predicted ....


Loop the loop and keep watching Richard

Besos Bobbi

Upgrade to TS Richard at 11 Expected

Fun to think while they sit at the NHC working hard on a new graphic package and trying to revise the discussion to reflect the new data from the Recon plane and data streaming in I am sitting here listening to Jimmy Buffett and talking to one of my favorite hurricane friends about hurricanes and pin ball and possible analog years for this long, hurricane rich season....

Lucky me... in my favorite purple tank top and my favorite purple plaid flannel shirt waiting for my hair to dry enough to straighten it listening to the wonderful Jimmy Buffett; truly the patron saint of tropical storm watchers!

So we have a S l o w l y developing Tropical Storm down there that may fester down there for days...down there lol. Oh sorry, trying to be good here. Truth is as much as I hate watching the Pacific storms you have to watch for parallels in steering currents as they often do show their hand. So, there is Megi in the Pacific moving very, very slowly and exploding as slowly and it seems like it has been on the maps now forever so wondering what that bodes for Richard's future track. I say future because today is a present lol (sorry... I'll be good I promise) because the ONLY thing we really have to worry on is the end game here with Richard, not his loops but where he is going down the road and that is a hard road to see right now as models show him looping about for a while. Will see if the models are right or wrong.

Would keep watching the NWS reports for various cities to see when they decide to take him seriously.


That is out of Melbourne, FL and yeah it occurred to me this morning we are all Storm Stalkers not so much as Chasers or Trackers, we wander around the web trying to sniff out signs and clues to show us what is really happening with the storm that the official sources are not saying publically using all our sources and sites.

What do they tell me this morning? Upgrade at 11. He is pegged as Richard on a few sites already... has been for a few hours.

So...while I sit here with the King of Jimmy Buffett watching the soon to be Richard spin on a satellite site and debate whether they will paint the whole Gulf of Mexico into the long range map or wait and see if he likes Tampa or Pensacola or does he dream of listening to some good jazz in Nola...

Only time will tell and I'll be here to update y'all so keep watching, keep reading, keep stalking :P and keep smiling as you try to keep up with me my crazy friend and friends of the friend of the sailor ;)

Besos Bobbi

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

19 Forms In the Caribbean... says the Navy ;) waiting on confirmation from NHC

So, we have a depression in the Caribbean it seems... had a tropical disturbance all day and finally got a real advisory coming up at 11 it seems.

It's worth noting that most of the convection has been blown off to the East but there is definitely something there to watch and the HWRF model blows it up consistently into a hurricane that ends up sometime next week moving north... after dilly, dallying and festering down in the Carib for days.

Will see... wondering if it will be Richard in the morning.

Sweet Tropical Dreams... Bobbi

Only time will tell and the real writers of this novel will be the NHC with their advisories and forecasts. Just a heads up here that we seem to be going live at 11 with Tropical Depression 19.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Recon on Rico/Richard ...forming down in the Carib

The NHC released a Special Tropical Outlook for the system down in the Carib and has upped it's chances to 70%..they still seem to be hedging their bets which seems funny since they issued a "Special Tropical Weather Outlook" which is very rare to do at all let alone for an upgrade to 70%...

See statement below. They still seem to be sticking with the models that forecast it to dance around in the Carib and probably go westbound. Why? I don't know. When I look at the current synoptics and recent trends easy money would be on it lifting out of the Carib, sheared somewhat but lifting. Hard to figure other than we go with the models as that's the CYA theory... can't just say "we don't like the models" though I have heard a few meteorologist say just that regarding this possible system.

My question is the models predicted Paula to dance around down there too and we know she didn't do why would we buy the same model package for Richard? Also, is he where the models are predicting a storm would do that or is he further to the north? Loop the loop.... looks like a strong flow to the NE more than anything else that could steer a storm unless he doesn't develop for days. Again...timing is everything as always.

Keep watching...

440 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010



Besos Bobbi

Developing System in the Caribbean?? Agent 99?? NHC says 50/50 chances

Stay tuned. It has a nice little twist to it or more so... a shape, an arc like shape where you can see how it would, could, might come together over the next day or two. Models differ greatly on whether it will or whether it won't as well as track so they sent in Recon to see if this will indeed be Rico... aka Richard.

Just pointing it out while watching the loops, the soaps and going over some bills and avoiding writing ;) Okay I will do some writing soon. Just trying to relax and get back to normal after being busy and away with a Bar Mitzvah and family event.

So...bring on the tropics and let's see Agent 99 start spinning...

Be back with more information when he forms because I do think he quite seriously could form. Also, further out in the Atlantic is another system that is weak...a waywardly lost, late season Cape Verde Wave wandering it's way westbound across the Atlantic... got to love it's tenacity ;)

Besos Bobbi
Ps... the Carib Cane would wander aimlessly or pull north towards Florida . . .

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Paula Does the Beach at Varadero in Cuba.. Shoots the Straits of Florida

Tropical Storm Paula is moving along the coast of Cuba tonight, tracing the coastline... her weather over the warm water of the Florida Straits while her windy weather is affecting the island itself. This is not a strong, well organized Tropical Storm. She has taken the northern edge of the forecast package and moved faster than expected. A few days ago the NHC was putting out a package insisting she would make circles in the Caribbean and/or stall out in weak steering conditions. Surprise..she didn't stall, she moved slow and steady and felt the tug of the very strong Cold Front pushing down into the South.

This is one of those situations where you look at the Sats and wonder how she can be over Cuba when it is clear her weather area is just south of Florida almost touching Florida and barely over Cuba. happens. We lucked out..that's the truth as Paula is another weak storm barely holding to Tropical Storm intensity wandering about barely affecting the United States. Much like Bonnie that I chased earlier this summer as it was moving into Dade County with weather much stronger than Paula.

Good loop to see how this is playing out:

Note the moisture from the storm is riding along the north coast of Cuba and/or shooting the Straits of Florida as I said a few days ago. The circulation center is to the south of that weather mass tho it looks pretty messy and weak to me.

Official explanation from the NHC if you don't like mine ;)

"center of Paula moved over Cuba near Puerto Esperanza around
noon today and produced a wind gust from the north of 68 mph...110
km/ the weather station in La Palma. Since then...the center
has continued to become gradually separated from the deep
convection which is to the north over the Florida Straits." is possible her "circulation center" makes it back into the Caribbean while her tropical outfit goes to some thrift shop in Little Haiti in North Miami and her naked swirl ..swirls around in the Caribbean hoping to attract some new colored convection and well that is a real long shot scenario...but time will tell.

As for me... going to bed... going to dream of bigger storms that go whoosh in the night and are wet and windy and make palm trees bend in the tropical night.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.. Bobbi

Ps...if you can't up on the beautiful Varadero Beach, a beach I long to walk on one day... after Fidel goes whoosh in the tropical night. Paula did the beach at Varadero so far... good taste in beaches it seems.

Paula and Morning Rain and Thunder

Nothing like waking up to morning rain and distant lightning moving in before daybreak. Love it!

It's pouring outside and taking a few minutes to add this...

Paula is a very weak storm, barely clinging to hurricane status and most likely will be downgraded before the morning is over. There is no green left on funktop, just red... red blob wandering a bit from the original path and about to wander it's way across Cuba or tracing the northern coastline.

Truth is most likely what is going to happen is that the upper level of the storm and the lower level of the storm are going to separate if Paula does indeed do Cuba. The weather associated with Paula most likely will continue to stream up into the South Florida area that will feel like they had a weak tropical storm but didn't. The circulation center may die out over the mountains or make it south into the warm Carib just south of Cuba and regenerate as Paula again or a new storm later in the week. OR.................she continues into the straits and meets up with the hunky cold front and zooms off into the Atlantic. The models seem pretty set on the Cuban solution...time will tell.

A strong cold front is diving down, a low off the coast of the Carolinas or Virginia will race up the coast as well... it's called W I N T E R moving in, showing his hand.

Keep watching...enjoy the day and it's an interesting mini-drama going on re: Paula who is a storm much like Irene. Years back there was a storm named Irene and that path was pointed out by many to be similar to this one... tho in that case the NHC insisted the center of Irene was going to do Naples and her weather center did South Beach and Homestead. Sort of dysfunctional storm so by the time that Irene and her other parts departed Florida there was a big clean up in the South Miami Area. Hopefully, when Paula does Cuba her weather mass won't make such a mess on South Beach. The Keys will get wind and rain...

As for me... watching the rain fall and waiting for the cool weather to move in so I can enjoy it before returning to the heat and lush humidity of Miami when this family party is over :)

Besos Bobbi
Ps...IF this storm does to Cuba and does do damage...look for Castro to spin this as some weather modification drama. Paula was supposed to go to New Orleans as a Category 4 storm but the United States modified it, weakened it and programmed it to move the length of the breadth of Cuba... news at 11... (rolling eyes) He's had reporters writing weather mod stories for a few years now... only in a Fascist, Communist Country can such stories be released with the blessings of the Government to blame America for a natural disaster. No words....

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Paula, Small, Compact Hurricane... eyes FL & Cuba

Most likely will shoot the straits and/or rain itself out over Cuba.

It can merge with a fast moving front that shears it apart more than merges with it...would be more like swallowing it whole as an appetizer or she could dance circles around in the Caribbean after raining over Havana and the Sea Wall and wandering her way through the windy, crooked streets of Havana east bound.

Tomorrow morning we should know better. Models yesterday screamed Cuba, today they are screaming Cuba and whispering the Florida Keys in the wind.

Climo would bring it north whereas November storms get shunted off to the ENE often.

Either way...shear will be strong as the front moves further south. And, this is a very small storm in that it's core was only about 10 miles wide earlier today. The smaller a storm is the faster it can spin up and the faster it can spin down.

Just have to wait and see.

Beginning to sound a lot like shooting the straits... time will tell and as ole Jimmy does so often Paula may be doing some Havana Daydreaming...

Enjoy the video...

Cuba...not Miami or West Palm Beach...

For tonight...this is the predicted path.. let's see what tomorrow brings.

Going to sleep with images of Havana dancing in my head...

Sweet Tropical Dreams


Monday, October 11, 2010

Paula Strengthening Rapidly... Hurricane By Morning?

Paula is an interesting storm and she could be a hurricane by the time we wake up tomorrow. She is so far forecasted to sit and lolligag around in the Carib before taking off in some direction...possibly Florida.. more probably Cuba but a lot depends on if a strong front were to come down... if the steering currents stay weak, a lot of IFs... don't like the way strong convection keeps moving off ahead of the storm because in theory if the steering currents are going to collapse that shouldn't be happening. Well... hard to tell and hard to predict October storms and October storms hit South Florida more than any other time of year.

The always great Skeetobite has his wonderful map that out does anything the NHC has out there.

On a personal level we have a family event up north this weekend and several members of the family need to leave Miami for the event and hoping Paula here will cooperate.

Will see in the morning.

Just saying... she is one fast developing storm, a joy to watch from a safe distance with dreams of Rita and Irene coming to mind and making me wonder what she has in her.

More tomorrow...

Some good discussion online by Jim Williams.

Tropical Storm Paula...on her way to becoming a Hurricane

and where she body knows.....

HURRICANE WARNINGS are up for the Yucatan...

Paula Forming in the Caribbean

Almost hovering over land it seems... or partially.

Recon is in the area being investigated and the word from the NHC is:


It currently is listed as Tropical Depression 18 on the Navy Site. Then again on the NHC sat site the floater is listed as Paula....

Long address but you get the picture... above or below.

Whether this is TD 18 or Paula... it's a technicality, she will be Paula.

Keep watching... the NHC should do some sort of announcement later day... probably by 5. Where does she go... keep watching ;)

It's gonna be a late October messy, difficult tracker.. season is far, far, far from over.

Besos Bobbi

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Yes or No? Develop or Not Develop? That is the question

Looks like it is getting set to ramp up

It's October.. it's a guessing game as usual. Trick or Treat.

Stay or go. North or West? East or NE?

Keep watching... it seems to be happening.

On the road today, will check in later if anything is important to say but we won't know for a good 24 hours what will be with this new possible system...'s a bye week for me... Fins lost. UM Lost. Gators Lost. FSU won... am not a happy camper here.... going to work on being happy.

It's been one of those seasons... it's not over but been one of those seasons.

Have a good Sunday. Going to be in the high 80s in my neck of the woods, that seems to say Indian Summer is in play and if so... anything goes with our new storm.

Besos Bobbi

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Upgrade to Tropical Storm Otto

For the record.... but read the post below about Hungary and know this could happen in many places in the world ... even in your part of the world wherever that may be.

This is from an Industrial Accident and a River of Toxic Mud...NOT a Red Storm Surge..

viszlát Bobbi