Recon on Rico/Richard ...forming down in the Carib

The NHC released a Special Tropical Outlook for the system down in the Carib and has upped it's chances to 70%..they still seem to be hedging their bets which seems funny since they issued a "Special Tropical Weather Outlook" which is very rare to do at all let alone for an upgrade to 70%...

See statement below. They still seem to be sticking with the models that forecast it to dance around in the Carib and probably go westbound. Why? I don't know. When I look at the current synoptics and recent trends easy money would be on it lifting out of the Carib, sheared somewhat but lifting. Hard to figure other than we go with the models as that's the CYA theory... can't just say "we don't like the models" though I have heard a few meteorologist say just that regarding this possible system.

My question is the models predicted Paula to dance around down there too and we know she didn't do so...so why would we buy the same model package for Richard? Also, is he where the models are predicting a storm would do that or is he further to the north? Loop the loop.... looks like a strong flow to the NE more than anything else that could steer a storm unless he doesn't develop for days. Again...timing is everything as always.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Keep watching...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
440 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

Besos Bobbi