Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 30, 2015

Atlantic Yellow Circle - Spy Blimp Takes a Road Trip... Like they did in Iraq ... They Bought a 2.7 Million Dollar Blimp With No Way to Get it Down Other Than Shooting it down...shame they didn't put the money into the GFS model

You can see it in the far left of the loop.

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Not hard to find...

Feel free to watch it develop or deflate... um fall apart?
Good song below for loop on the WV Loop

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Some of the underpaid, overly dramatic models develop it some... says this about that.

"Looking at the global model guidance: The GFS model guidance forecasts little development from this system for at least the next week. The long range GFS model guidance does forecast some development of this system when it reaches the Virgin Islands around November 9th.
The European model guidance forecasts no development from the low pressure system near 35 West Longitude. It should be noted that the European model guidance does forecast a broad low pressure system to develop in the southwestern Caribbean around Monday or Tuesday, however, it indicates no significant development of this low pressure system."

No model tracks on
Perhaps later today if the models decide they like it.
For now they are watching it. I'm watching it.
NHC is watching it. We are all watching it  ...but it's far away still.

See SW Carib has a purple splotch!

It's been a great year for storms forming close in.
Joaquin and Patricia are 2 majors to mention.

It's been a bad year for storms far out in the Atlantic.
Shear beating up on really great tropical waves.
So I really don't think this wave will develop a lot.

I wouldn't say yet it's nothing and nothing will come of it.
But it's fun to watch a far away wave under surveillance by the NHC.

Speaking of surveillance . . .

The New York Times was on it also. My son says they always get their facts right...

Yes the runaway blimp ran away with the Internet on Wednesday eclipsing talk of the soon to be held Republican debate later that night. All anyone wanted to talk about was the missing 2.7 Million Dollar blimp and it's mile long cable that was electrified and knocking out power along the way as it lost altitude over Pennsylvania. What many don't realize is they really got lucky as a day later and the prevailing winds would have taken the blimp up the I95 corridor to Lord only knows where. Luckily it took it's runaway, road trip to a sparsely populated area. Sort of like Patricia...

It was mentioned numerous times that the winds were "strong" in the area. At least 25 MPH... and may have contributed to the problem. Well, that's wrong and we have been given no explanation for why the spy blimp went up, up and away. Seems the blimp was built to withstand hurricane force winds and well you know there was no hurricane in Maryland or I'd have been blogging about it.

So how did the blimp get loose I wonder? And, why would you go with a 2.7 million dollar blimp and not have a rescue plan. Reminds me somehow of Benghazi . . .  And, Huckabee who seems to be in the race to raise up his political commentator status to a higher level did indeed compare the problems of the government's to the out of control blimp. It's a fair comparison. Many things about our infrastructure often seem to work on a wing and a prayer. We spend a fortune upgrading the American model (GFS) but not give it what it really needs money wise and then we rely on the EURO model that is superior. From a meteorological point of view we love the EURO but from a patriotic point of view we wish the GFS got it right more often.

This is not a bi-partisan issue, they both stink to misquote an old friend named Charles. It's the bureaucracy itself that builds in this problem in the same way someone approved of a spy blimp with equipment that was said to have the highest security level involved yet no way to bring it down securely if it gets away. Ummmmm. We are mandated by law to wear seat belts. Buildings are mandated by law to have smoke detectors and fire extinguishers. And, yet no way was built in to bring it down should it go up, up and away. Blimps and balloons are known to do that. Seems a strange disconnect and it does make you wonder. But, looking at the runaway blimp you can understand better why we rely on the EURO while feeding not enough money into the GFS.

Did you really think I was going to discuss in depth a 10% yellow circle out in the Atlantic that seems more anchored to the spot than the blimp that got away.

How did it get loose? There is way more to this story than we have been told. This was a NORAD blimp. You know NORAD that protects us and tracks Santa Claus.
There's an App case you were curious.

Imagine having to explain to your grandchildren one day that you were once on lock down in your school room due to a runway spy blimp.

As a weather and history person it reminded me of the Hindenburg.

You got to wonder what they were smoking when they agreed to a spy blimp...
...obviously something strong as it had no way to be retrieved if it got away.
Oddly as the crow flies not that far from the same spot.

Weather DID play a factor in that blimp drama.

You can Google it for yourself.
The price tag was anywhere from 2.7 to 2.9 Million Dollars Quoted.
Add in the costly retrieval expense...

I'm sure it sounded like a good idea back when Wilma was making her move on Florida.

Quote below is from the website listed above. It's obvious it has an agenda but... does everyone online. 2005 wow, a lot of genius ideas came out of that time frame.
See doesn't matter if you have a Republican in office or a Democrat.
The system itself needs to be changed not maintained.
Changed in a positive way.
Perhaps someone will make a movie . . .

"The project is called JLENS – or “Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System.” And you couldn’t come up with a better metaphor for wildly inflated defense contracts, a ponderous Pentagon bureaucracy, and the U.S. surveillance leviathan all in one."

My biggest concern is a need to upgrade out American model and not rely on other models.
That may not sound great from a Global perspective but I think we should think local.

Next time you hear about how the EURO beat the AMERICAN (GFS)...
.... remember the blimp.

One reason the blimp story got to me was....
In South Florida we have Fat Albert.
Fat Albert is the nickname of the blimp in the Florida Keys.

We all love Fat Albert.
We take pictures and wave to Fat Albert.
We'd hate to see Fat Albert get away.
What if Fat Albert defected South to become Muy Gordo Alberto?
Would Castro shoot it down or embrace Alberto?

Do we have a way to bring down Fat Albert if it gets away?
You see this was a huge concern for me suddenly.
Seems they got away in Iraq and Afghanistan....

Government officials said they just waited for it to come down.
Or .. perhaps they shot it down or someone else did. True story.
Spoken about on the news and there's video online shown above.

They shot it down.........think about it.
Guess there was no golden parachute there....

They shot the Aberdeen Blimp that seems not to have had a nickname :(

Politics and Weather. 
Gotta love them.
So much in common.

Good times. Good memories. Strange memories ;)
The government was really handing out money then ...wasn't it?

Looking back... a lot of people did things in 2005 that seemed to make sense.

 A video to watch if you are the type to worry on things like this.

Another interesting one...

Odd thing about odd videos like this is... a lot of the info is right.
A lot of the info is wrong, but much right.
Remember that when you watch the movie.
(Really trying not to giggle here too much...
I giggle too much my asthma acts up...
OH 2005 lol)

Besos BobbiStorm
Ps @bobbistorm on Twitter

And as for being under surveillance by the government.. know like that TV show "Person of Interest"
Well I'll let my friends deal with them.
Yes I am that girl....
No, I didn't hear anything nor know nothing about 2005.

Good, crazy times. Good memories.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Questions in the Tropics. Questions on Winter. So Many Questions. Time Will Tell the Answers. Waiting on Thunder & Listening to Music

With regard to the remnants of Patricia ....
...that fused with the various atmospheric conditions

It's name became FALL STORM.
You see when its worthy of a name.. it gets one.

It's moisture spread out into the atmosphere.

Look at how man places got rain from this #FallStorm 

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Kind of awesome. 
And that is why we love weather.
Up close it's intriguing.
The larger scope is compelling

Charleston flooded again.
Partially rain and high seasonal tides.
Again this was an issue since the beginning for Charleston.
It's called the "LOW COUNTRY" for a reason.

People ask me if it's all over in the tropics?
My answer is yes and no.

In general the rhyme is right and October is all over.
But the season goes to November 30th for a reason.

Will we see a wayward, westbound Kate?
Or a zig zag "which way do I go" Kate?

Generally November storms are in the Caribbean...
...and then catch a front out of the Caribbean

But there is no real norm for November.
As El Nino is strong still it has tended to shut down development... GOM and Caribbean.

Is there anything out there right now we can watch?

Yes but chances are low it develops into anything.
But there is what to watch.

A healthy wave is approaching the islands.
You can read about it below.

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Personally I'd keep watching fronts that stall out close in the land.
Just been that sort of year. Go where we have seen formation this year.

You need a real hard working system.
Nothing is going to be handed out on a silver platter this year.
Any system will have to work for it.
That said... it's possible. I wouldn't rule it out.

Winter is working over time to make an early entrance.

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It's been a watery October.
There must have been something in the water...
Rain and floods.

The big question many are wondering on is...
With a strong Southern Jet and an El Nino Winter what will the South see?
Does that moisture translate to cold rain, snow or ice?
People in the Deep South contend with hurricanes and sometimes winter storms.

Hard work builds character and success... if you don't give up.

Where I come from..

In El Nino Winters ... Winter gets a leg up from El Nino.
The flow of the fronts moves across the South.

What becomes of that "wet" is the big question.

A lot of people are talking but it's just talk right now.
Remember when they said we would barely have a season because of El Nino?
They were wrong. We did. It was moderated by El Nino ... but we had a season.
No one told Joaquin about a quiet season. 
No one told the families of the 33 people who died on El Faro.
We got up to the J storm when many thought we wouldn't get past the F storm.

As often North Carolina seems to sit on the Mason Dixie Line of weather.
Too far South for snow storms.
Too far north for ice storms.
Sometimes they get slammed with storms.

Who knows? 
Time will tell.
Right now it's still Hurricane Season ....

I'm in the "marginal area" today for strong weather.
Some talk on possible thunderstorms and a random twister.
Or just steady rain.

Lastly there is a saying in the Bible about rain in the right season.

"I will send you rain in its season, and the ground will yield its crops and the trees their fruit"

The problem with winter storms that come early is trees are top heavy.
They still have their leaves. Add snow or ice and they fall over.

You can follow all the seasons on 

Rain or snow or the busy tropics... it's all there.
And so am I ...watching the tropics and hoping for a thunder storm today.

If you need to get somewhere.. 
...stick with a Country Boy ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps My mother loved Robert Mitchum...

Different songs for different times... 

So many thunder songs

Song stuck in my head... what's your favorite thunder song?

Reminds me of my brother's new favorite song.. 

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Why Doesn't the Gulf Low Have a Name? Winter Storms Have Names ... Let's Call It Gale Storm?

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So much to say here but for now going to post some loops.
Explanations and Concerns.

Visible Loop below shows the Low south of Texas
Moving to the Left... more than North.
Louisiana is in play here.

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Let's look from a wide view at this "system"

This "system" goes from GOM up to New England.
I'm talking cloud cover, moisture.
Huge frontal boundary with a low in the GOM and remnants.
The year of remnants remember?

The NHC says nothing is forming.. NOTHING.
It is a "special feature" and referred to as a Low.
Check with High Seas Forecast... NWS etc.

Basically they are saying "not my problem"

And, if it is truly not a tropical low ....
Just a low and a frontal boundary that's fine.

But is it or isn't it?

Things tend to spin up fast in the GOM.
There isn't much lead time if something does form.
And currently the landfall of the "low" is going to be East of forecast.

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From the perspective of the NHC they are tasked to cover the tropics.
They cover tropical lows. Subtropical Lows and Extra-tropical lows.
This seems not to come under any of those categories...

Read the discussion as far East as Mobile, Alabama

Watches and Warnings are shown below.

That's not Texas or Louisiana ... 

In fact look at the Real Estate covered under watches and warnings.

There is even a warning up for the Florida Keys.

So this is the Great No Name Storm of 2015.
Surprised the TWC hasn't named it for Extra Credit.

It's not really a winter storm so what is it?
Not tropical.... 
Gale Storm? 
We can call it a Gale Storm!

What ever you call it Patricia juiced up the Southern Jet Stream.
Typical of an El Nino Year.
Though there isn't anything too typical about this particular El Nino.
Remember... they are like Cabbage Patch Dolls.. no two the same.

Old post... still true... what I said was in fact true.

But we do have it's influence as we have the influence of the remnants.
Frontal Boundaries are in place already.
Halloween may have a BOO for you!!!

Either way the NWS is always watching.

The NWS doesn't have an "off season"
The NWS doesn't say "I'll let so and so handle this one"

Weather is always happening.

You know when Cantore talks on the Fire Hose?

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One setting up. 
It's like a meteorological laser beam being shot at Louisiana.
Sabine River.

You can see how transitional this set up is...
Cold air flows off the East Coast.
GOM goes from cool blue to wet, warm orange.
Back and forth.
It's this time of year when models don't always work properly.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbisStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Ps A lot of people are going to get a whole lot of rain and high winds.
Hope everyone is aware even without a name they can have really strong weather.
Don't take it for granted just because it doesn't have a name....

Saturday, October 24, 2015

Remnants of Patricia & Texas Flooding and How Patricia was more like Brett than Mitch ..

Remember when I said that Patricia had a small eye?
A small eye wall?

Let's look at this picture up close.

The small blue circle is where those historic winds were.
The rest is a lot of rain and cloud cover.
Stormy weather but not the 200 mph winds.

Well.. luck prevailed. Or science or prayers.
Patricia crossed the finish line in a very sparsely populated area.
Barely a village in sight.
No deaths have been reported so far..

Below is from Friday's blog.

I should have said Think Brett.
Or... remember Brett.
You don't remember Brett in 1999?

A category 4 Hurricane made landfall near Corpus Christi..

A big, beautiful hurricane on satellite imagery caused much concern.
Note small tight core of hurricane force winds...

Mass evacuations. Preparations.
It was had a small inner core of strong winds.
It made landfall in a sparsely populated area.
The only deaths were .. mostly traffic accidents.
Attributed to the storm.. associated with the storm.
Some trees fell down, crops ruined, minor flooding.

From Wikipedia. Look it up.
After the long NHC discussion figured I'd keep it simple.

Even the trailer park survived.....

NOAA discussion below in entirety

So Patricia hit a less populated area.
So far no deaths have been attributed to it...
A massive loss of crops that will affect the local economy.

People pray, hope for the best.
When the best happens ... 
... people make fun and complain.

Human Nature.

Mother Nature is sometimes kind.

Had Patricia hit Puerto Vallarta directly...
....or Downtown Miami.
There would have been horror stories.
So like real estate it's all about location.

Landfall where there are few people...
..and people were evacuated and warned..


A major metropolitan area.

And, maybe.. just maybe prayers worked.
And, it had a very small core of hurricane winds.

Odd how Atlantic discussion waxed poetic this year...
...on how small Danny was.... and yet little was said about Patricia.
Big in intensity.
Big in presentation.
Small area of  major hurricane force winds.

small hurricane vs BIG MOUNTAINS

What goes up fast..
.... falls apart fast!

Miles away in Texas......

Let's look at one of those images closer..

The rain has been so heavy a train derailed carrying concrete.

UP to 20 inches of rain.

Rain Sooner.

Rain Later.

Could we get tropical formation?
NHC says no.
NOAA says ... possibly.
Not probably but possibly...

Looking at one of those satellite images again... 
Let's see what we see.

Those are the remnants of Patricia... 
...mixing with what has been creating rain already.
Making a bad situation worse.

So far they are holding up with a sense of humor.
That humor is going to wear thin.

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We can talk about models tomorrow.
For now watch the loops 
Say thanks and amen for prayers answered.
Hope the flooding in Texas from the remnants .....
.....don't eclipse the hype on landfall in Mexico.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

 Ps...A look back at Patricia in her day via NASA