Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

No Fay Today.. Lots of convection in the Atantic & Carib

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The state of the tropics today...

Quiet with areas of intense convection and nothing more.

Speaking of intense convection the South Florida area keeps getting hit daily with intense convection. This is not really the actual rainy season, although to be fair anytime you live in Miami you can get rained on ...

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The name Fay seems to be a great name to scare away any real tropical development as it's been around a long time.  I typed Fran the other day by accident... I was staring at an satellite image of Fran on a poster on my office wall. There's been some talk on Fran of late in NC as it was a year like this in that the rainfall levels had been high in Raleigh. Same as this year, however this year no storms want to form and gain the name Fay it seems.

The area in the Atlantic with the yellow X today is due to go North ...or just East of North before going out to sea and all the way to Europe.

Putting this all in motion we see an interesting area of convection in the Caribbean. It's only interesting in that this time of year that region is ripe for development when a front makes it past Cuba and the Florida Straits and dies out. It is that type of year, however it's also the type of year when things refuse to twist and shout . . .

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Mind you things spin plenty... just not in the tropics. Look at the Low over the Plains..

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I'm sure there will be a lot of spin on the hearings today that showed America how lax things have been with regard to securing the perimeter of the White House.

But, not much spin in the tropics.

Keep watching..
Besos Bobbi

Monday, September 29, 2014

Subtropical Storm Fay?

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See the swirly feature that looks a lot like an ULL that trapped moisture in it or a cyclone of some kind but one that does not have a name or designation

Close up....

Sure looks like an organized something... 

Playing name games in the Tropical Atlantic today as the NHC is playing hard ball with their now orange X highlighted on their forecast maps. They are already using the dreaded "subtropical"         term in their discussion this morning... see discussion below with my notes...

The tone of the last discussion was a bit testy..overly defensive if you ask me. REGARDLESS... okay..   Many good mets have questioned their laid back attitude regarding the only game in town right now in the Tropical Atlantic and a twisting game it is...

Bite the bullet and name it already!

I'm sorry it's not a Cat 5 or a Pacific storm named Zebra or Zorba, but it deserves an upgrade for what it is...

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This very telling radar loop was posted this morning by Brian McNoldy and he is no wishcaster he is one of the best mets out there.

Come on NHC give the Atlantic show some respect here...
...even if it's likely to hit Germany according to the models..

In other areas there are waves being watched, but that is all we are doing.

In motion that looks like this and you can see the area the NHC will probably upgrade..
....later today or tonight...

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It's a rainy day in Raleigh this Monday morning. 
I'm mentally home in Miami walking down Flagler Street towards the Bay
Hey... we all have our fantasies don't we?

I'm not thrilled with the way the NHC has changed the site.
It seems tricky to have to know to click on the 5 day below to know where it's heading.

One of many reasons so many people do appreciate Mike's site

(I included the web address at the top of the image cause I'm like that...)

I'll be back with more information later today on what will most likely be
Subtropical Storm Fay... 
(it's not like they can't spare a name in the Atlantic...)

Also note it's hovering over areas visited by other storms this year so far... 

Besos Bobbi

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Southern Rain from the GOM & NHC Yellow X in Atlantic

I'm watching football and staring at the water vapor loop of the Atlantic. Okay, to be fair I'm more listening to the game then watching.

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The system is clearly visible at the top middle of the loop above. Twisting, turning, folding in on itself and oddly leaving a little wispy S design on the visible imagery at the top of today's post.

I'm sure you are wondering where it's going.


And, since it's going North I'm going to show the Canadian IR imagery as it's beautiful. Their model may have some problems, but their satellite imagery is always stunning.

Isn't that pretty?

Okay so you are now wondering what's going on in the Gulf of Mexico.

Well, to be honest, people have been wondering on that for the last several days.
Many have predicted some sort of development.

The NHC does not have it highlighted, however NOAA does have it in purple as a ...
...potential area of development.

I'll tell you what is going to develop... 

Yup.... it's gonna be Southern Rain...
blessings sent from heaven... 

Well... that's true. Rain is considered a blessing in many cultures. Helps make the crops grow. It clears out the air and washes away the pollution in the air...

Time will tell if anything spins and tries to form into a tropical entity. But, with a name.. without a name.. by any name it's gonna be a whole lot of Southern Rain.

Cute how the NOAA symbol looks like a hurricane over Cuba..
As close as we seem to be getting this year...

Another beautiful satellite image from the Canadian Weather Centre is below
(that's not a typo.. it's how they spell it)

You can see the congestion down there in the GOM... 

I've been busy the last few days with the Jewish High Holidays.
Rosh Hashanah is considered the "birthday of the world"
And, what a beautiful world it is... 

I'll be back to discuss what might be forming in the Tropical Atlantic.
Wishing everyone a very healthy, happy and sweet New Year...
(Well it's new on the Jewish Calendar so... be Jewish for a day and go eat an apple with some honey)

That's Cheers in Hebrew...

Besos Bobbi

Ps... always watch the tail end of of cold fronts in September & October...

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Models Not Batting 1000... What's UP in the Tropics? Football...

Officially nothing is up in the tropics.

But, there is always something going on even if it's north worthy of a name.

A line of extreme weather blew up fast over South Florida today. I know, because all of my kids and friends talked about it...and they are used to extreme weather.

The semi-permanent dark hurricane that's swirling around East of the Bahamas is agitating a tropical wave approaching the islands. Upper Level Lows do that often, it doesn't mean anything in theory. Well, unless you live in the islands.

915 PM AST SUN SEP 21 2014


Something I find most interesting and rarely spoken about is how bad the models have been at predicting rapid development of Cape Verde Waves that fall apart faster than the NHC can downgrade their areas of development.

The most recent wave was expected to develop so fast that it was supposed to race off NW into the middle of the Atlantic ...barely far enough out in the ocean to even be a Fish Storm.

If you put that in motion you will see the big, round, red circle up near Long Island...

It forms faster than a derecheo and forms a "non-tropical low"
that some said was "like a noreaster" 
in one day zooms from the Carolinas to Cape Cod. 

Note another wave is departing Africa.

Note tropical wave that pops up red tonight.
I know... 
It doesn't have model support.
Well ....guess what?

The last few waves that had model support ...did not form.
Actually, Edouard was the only one that formed recently...

Remember the models that had Fay form and hit Egypt, Spain and Algeria?

So, at the moment I'm just watching the tropics and not focusing too much on broken models.

Note...just because the NHC doesn't talk about it...
...doesn't mean they aren't watching things...

See those little circles in black... I didn't do that... 
Those are the areas aka "waves" they are watching while you sleep

The models try to see into the dark of night and see into the future to see what will be tomorrow or later in the week....and they sometimes nothing more than tropical fantasies. If we could only read their mind...the waves... we might know which will develop and which will swim out to sea or disappate as they approach the islands.

If we could only read their mind...we might know if this little wave is dreaming of Key West, Key Largo or Miami. And, just because it dreams of Key Largo doesn't mean it will ever see Key Largo. It's just traveling along with the lower level winds that steer weak waves west...

Models are open for discussion as are song lyrics....

Why do some sites keep screaming for development.....

The site above keeps showing the GOM and the ITZ ripe for tropical development. And, oh look it shows a purple diamond where today's wave of interest is acting up... Another down in the SW Caribbean, but you know I don't want to think on the Carib.

So... I will say that despite nothing developing there was weather off the SE Coast this week... and it did form into a "non-tropical low" along the coast. And, something could form... it would be a long shot and if something looks like it will the models may kick in again.

Note models are like melodies they are open to different discussions on what will be. And, maybe this year models are like dreams... just dreams and nothing more. But, they are reoccurring dreams that will not go away... will not stay away... they replay over and over like dreams in the dark of night

Same song... yet suddenly a sullen looking Superboy stares out into the dark of night... 

(how do you go from a MWS song to Smallville...hmnnnn)

As for me I'm watching football on Sundays. 

And, football to me is always a metaphor for life. So going to post my thoughts today on the extraordinary game between Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos. Sundays are often hard for me as I wish I was in Miami with some of my family going to Dolphin Games.

They got there for the pre-game fun...

....then the game began...not fun. 
Note..those are not Denver or Gator fans wearing orange tee shirts...
...those are empty seats.

And, pathetically I miss being in Miami for the Dolphin games..
... I need a shrink!
Anyone know a good one?

So, somewhere around the middle of the Seattle game I lost in the Seattle game and stopped watching my screen update me on the Fins getting deeper and deeper into trouble.

And, these are my thoughts on life... and football.

I just watched the most amazing football game. Seattle just beat Denver in OT. Yeah,  I've been a Seattle fan since I lived in LA & I like Russell Wilson who went to NC State. So what hit me was Manning threw an interception & a close up of his face showed such anger, frustration... pain. I've never seen the Fins QB show such emotion on his face. He just trots off the field like "okay... moving on..." and Manning brought the team back to tie the game with a 2 point conversion that put the game into OT. Seattle got the ball first... went the length of the field and scored a TD. I almost felt bad for Manning. And...THAT how you PLAY...WORK at football. Awesome game. Yeah,  I was very upset over not being able to watch Fins but you know... not paying to watch them lose over and over... still love them but it's about passion & determination.. it's not a rehearsal or even a dress rehearsal... it's about doing what you got to do and playing your heart out... with passion and determination every game, every play and yeah I still love the Fins but so over that earlier depression.

Live a life extraordinary as the song goes and hope you have beautiful dreams..

In the tropics...I'm watching...cause that's what we do in September..
...and at night... we dream....

Sweet tropical dreams, 


Friday, September 19, 2014

GOM Ripe for Development..of some kind... 1926 Miami Hurricane and My Son Levi's Birthday ;)

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Not much to talk about today in the tropics. It's been that way for a while. Edouard is out to sea doing his thing. There is moisture in the GOM from a cold front that  needs to be watched for development. Another tropical wave that was being watched is trying to slip in under the is moving Westish but a bit high. The Upper Level Low anchored over FL and Bahamas is trying hard to keep tropical development under wraps.

The picture looks more tropical than it is in reality. It is in reality a sign of winter moving into the tropics.

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There are models being run on the wave out near Africa to the far left of the above image.

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If you look at just one image everything looks tropical. Loop the loops and you see how much interference there is out there and if the Fins were able to protect their so so quarterback he wouldn't throw so many interceptions and have so many incompletions. Just saying...

One image doesn't tell the whole story.

There is no tropical storm in the GOM....the wave by Africa is possibly going to develop but the path out to sea is not set in the waves.

There are waves trying to move west into the Caribbean and Atlantic ...
....but they are running up against negative features.

I could go into deep detail in the meteorological explanations... but the reality is it's not happening.
It is possible something close in to South Florida will develop in some fashion and ride up along the coast. But if is it tropical or just a low riding a cold front.

More interesting to me this week has been looking back at the hurricane that was Miami's Hurricane.

Again remember images do not tell the story. The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane was the defining moment in Miami History. It was not the death knell that so many history writers dramatically write. It was a hard slap in the head, a punch that made you hit the ground hard and then... Miami got up and put it all back together again.

Images do not tell the story.

These are the images you see when you put in "1926 Miami Hurricane" but they do not tell the story.

It's like if you had a webcam watching someone you would think you know what is going on with their life. Perhaps you have a friend go by and start up conversation and think you know what is going on. Wrong. You know only the tip of the iceberg and you aren't getting the warm pulse of life that is the real story. You don't know the secrets.

Here's a secret I'll tell.

This picture shows a Biscayne Blvd wiped clean and a Bayfront Park covered in sand and big barges that the storm surge delivered onto the park rudely. Wrong. The park was just being built and the park created a buffer zone for downtown Miami between the beautiful Biscayne Bay and the sometime skyscrapers.

Had the park not just been built and NOT FINISHED... the barges would have slammed into those buildings and it would have been a whole lot harder to clean up the mess... the death toll higher as it was further north up on the Bay where there were shanty town style collections of poorly built houseboats where people lived.

Made that image large so you can see the windows are blown out of he buildings. The few palms there were there are ripped apart... the barges landed there not in the lobby of those beautiful old buildings where people lived and hid in bathtubs during the raging night.

Yes... Miami was a mess... and then.... the people who lived in Miami, the hard rugged working people who helped make Carl Fisher and George Merrick's dreams come into reality...went about rebuilding the paradise that was a bit battered but not lost. The real Miamians who lived here all year not the ones who came and went for three months in the winter on Miami Beach.

Real Miamians are tough and happy creatures who get to enjoy the warm tropical sunshine almost every day of the year. Even the days when it rains... most of the day is sunny and bright. None of those totally depressing gray weeks that you get further up the coast when a cold front comes down and stalls out and struggles to keep pushing and every day is just gray... with a few moments of Autumn sunshine peaking through...

The best book ever written about the 1926 Miami Hurricane was by a man who went through it and wrote notes in his diary about it. Reading those notes is like walking back through time through the dark, wild night of the storm... a drive through the eye and miraculously getting back to his house, French Doors blowing out... taking refuge in a Model T Ford as many did and the aftermath

BUY IT... read it...feel it...experience it...

Note Miami Land Dealers were getting BAD press up north in the late summer of 1925. News of swamp land being sold and sold again and again and flipped faster than a condo on Biscyane Blvd today. Laws were passed regulating investments and the winter season of 1926 was a dud way before the first drop of rain began to fall on South Beach.

Wrong..not true. It's more magical Miami to blame it on the hurricane than legislation that was put into place to stop the selling of swamp land to unsuspecting people in Ohio. But it makes a great story. It becomes a legend. The hurricane that stopped the BOOM... the boom died in the winter of 1926 before the hurricane in the September of 1926.

True.... the January season of 1926 was disappointing and the late bloomers who got in too late on the boom were having problems selling Opa Locka and Fulford-By-the-Sea (North Miami Beach now..) and forget about that dream of islands in the Bayt that would connect the Venetian Islands to Miami Shores. All that was left was some pilings off of what would become the Julia Tuttle Causeway where pelicans would watch the sunset...and still do.

Sadly somewhere in the mess of my boxes of history photos of Miami Beach... I have the map for that causeway. If I find it I'll post it. For now.. believe me and it was before there was the Julia Tuttle Causeway.

Ghostly quality to this old footage as there is no music or sound...but in the end there is the Great 1926 Miami Hurricane and the aftermath...

A year later in 1927 Miami Beach was hosting speed races again. Yes... they were still cleaning up but the bay was as beautiful as almost always...

In the early 1930s when there was no work up north in the construction business Miami was alive and kicking building the brand new, streamline modern hotels on Ocean Drive.

Architecture and Miami... what a history.

Note that when nothing was going on anywhere in the US regarding investment...South Beach was in the middle of a building boom. Five years after the "Killer Hurricane" Miami Beach was alive and money was flowing.

I know because my grandfather was one of those men who came south in 1935 for work and stayed. Yes, his wife was a Floridian trapped up north with a cigar store slash ice cream shop on the Boardwalk. She went up north from Tampa one year to visit her sister and married a Russian Immigrant who was struggling for work up north... but who found all the work he wanted in Miami. As the story goes he drove down with a friend to work on the dome of a synagogue being built on Miami Beach and once here got on the phone and called up his wife Mary and said "I'm so sorry I didn't realize how beautiful it was here, now I know why you missed Florida so much" and in less than a month they were living on Miami Beach ... back home in Florida or as she used to say FLAHR-DUH.

Secret? He came during the 1935 Hurricane in the Florida Keys. The wind was fierce in Miami and he told her he had to hold onto a palm tree to stand up straight during the height of the storm... but it didn't deter him from moving South to the land of the Sunshine.

Next time you look at the old Art Deco hotels on South Beach...
..know they were built during the height of the depression.
No depression in Miami in the early 1930s... or mid 1930s... or late 1930s..

1939 great footage from a family film... I keep thinking I went to school with someone with that last name. Anyway... 1939... Miami looking beautiful as always... (except for those rare days after a Category 4 Hurricane and by the way... 1926 was the only Category 4 hurricane that hit Miami directly as Andrew hit Homestead as anyone in South Dade will tell you....)

1955 The sun reigns again over Miami

The main street of Coral Gables doing just fine in the Florida sunshine in 1955... 30 years after the 1926 Miami Hurricane tore it up badly.

Coral Gables is as beautiful as George Merrick knew it would be...

Coral Gables.
Biltmore Hotel.

Back to the tropics....yes there is an Invest for the newest wave that rolled off of Africa...I'm just more blown away by the 1926 Miami Hurricane that did not blow Miami away but that made it a stronger, more stubborn... beautiful city.

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It's rolling...but it may roll away...Fay may be in love with Edouard and follow him out to sea.. or maybe not.........

And, because no blow about South Florida would be right without a song from Jimmy Buffett..

Tomorrow I'll talk about the tropics more or maybe Sunday. I do think some tropical system will form and find it's way into our area.. maybe the Jewish High Holidays. Old Jewish saying in Miami... hurricanes and the holidays always go together.

Spoiler alert... the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane came on the Day of Judgement Yom Kippur..

This post is in honor of my son's birthday actually.

My son Levi Meyer, who lives out in Southwest Miami and who is very involved with Coconut Grove Chabad and sells homes in Coral Gables and all over Miami is from my figuring the 5th generation of my family that is in the real estate business. NO ONE knows Miami like he does or the real estate business. It's in his genes... trust me.

My Great-Great Grandfather bought and sold land here and in NJ. Invested in land

My great Uncle sold land in Tampa... Anna Maria Island and Holmes Beach.

My grandfather built homes on Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Miami... on his own and with the Mackle Brothers on large projects. His next project was Key Biscayne, but he died of a heart attack. Before he died he drove across the Rickenbacker Causeway with my mother to show her where there was going to be a city one day...  He was right.

My father was President of South Florida Real Estate Appraisers and taught Real Estate in College here in Miami.

I sold real estate... my brother is a real estate appraiser in South Florida.

Levi sells real estate.

How may Realtors do you know who know South Florida so organically intrinsically so genetically?

It's his birthday today.

Happy Birthday Levi.
(he doesn't know I'm writing this... spoiler alert.. I'm going to tell him after I post it...)

Give him a birthday present... buy a house ;) Hopefully in the Gables or that one he has out in the Redlands for sale...

Keep it going strong...

And, then there is his baby brother Zalmy who wants to become an architect in Miami...

And here's a  picture of me at my 2nd wedding some what tipsy and giving Levi a lecture. I told him to get married... marry his girlfriend...have children.. be happy. And.. know what? He listened to me... and did...

On his wedding day... on Biscayne Bay at a friend's beautiful home... (home was used in final episode of Burn Notice...just saying... ) so Miami Levi.

A year later.... out at a party with his beautiful wife..

Stunning beautiful wife... a Miami girl... stunning pregnant...
and the bris of a their baby Benjamin Miles... 
at Chabad of the Grove
son on the far right is the architect student... wink

That's life in Miami...when you listen to your Momma ;)

Besos Bobbi

Ps... watch the area in the Gulf of Mexico...

Musical treat... a year...