Models Not Batting 1000... What's UP in the Tropics? Football...

Officially nothing is up in the tropics.

But, there is always something going on even if it's north worthy of a name.

A line of extreme weather blew up fast over South Florida today. I know, because all of my kids and friends talked about it...and they are used to extreme weather.

The semi-permanent dark hurricane that's swirling around East of the Bahamas is agitating a tropical wave approaching the islands. Upper Level Lows do that often, it doesn't mean anything in theory. Well, unless you live in the islands.

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
915 PM AST SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST IS STILL STRONGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND IS AT ABOUT 59 WEST DEGREES AT OUR LATITUDE.
EXTRAPOLATION OF MOISTURE MOVEMENT SUGGESTS A SHARP RISE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND 22/10-12Z...AND OVER
SAN JUAN BY 12-18Z. SOME MOISTURE ALSO APPEARS TO BE TUMBLING OVER
THE TOP OF THE VERTEX WHICH WOULD HASTEN THE ENTRY OF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING PERIOD."

Something I find most interesting and rarely spoken about is how bad the models have been at predicting rapid development of Cape Verde Waves that fall apart faster than the NHC can downgrade their areas of development.

The most recent wave was expected to develop so fast that it was supposed to race off NW into the middle of the Atlantic ...barely far enough out in the ocean to even be a Fish Storm.

If you put that in motion you will see the big, round, red circle up near Long Island...

It forms faster than a derecheo and forms a "non-tropical low"

that some said was "like a noreaster" 

and....

in one day zooms from the Carolinas to Cape Cod. 

Note another wave is departing Africa.

Note tropical wave that pops up red tonight.

I know... 

It doesn't have model support.

Well ....guess what?

The last few waves that had model support ...did not form.

Actually, Edouard was the only one that formed recently...

Remember the models that had Fay form and hit Egypt, Spain and Algeria?

So, at the moment I'm just watching the tropics and not focusing too much on broken models.

Note...just because the NHC doesn't talk about it...

...doesn't mean they aren't watching things...

See those little circles in black... I didn't do that... 

Those are the areas aka "waves" they are watching while you sleep

The models try to see into the dark of night and see into the future to see what will be tomorrow or later in the week....and they sometimes nothing more than tropical fantasies. If we could only read their mind...the waves... we might know which will develop and which will swim out to sea or disappate as they approach the islands.

If we could only read their mind...we might know if this little wave is dreaming of Key West, Key Largo or Miami. And, just because it dreams of Key Largo doesn't mean it will ever see Key Largo. It's just traveling along with the lower level winds that steer weak waves west...

Models are open for discussion as are song lyrics....

Why do some sites keep screaming for development.....

The site above keeps showing the GOM and the ITZ ripe for tropical development. And, oh look it shows a purple diamond where today's wave of interest is acting up... Another down in the SW Caribbean, but you know I don't want to think on the Carib.

So... I will say that despite nothing developing there was weather off the SE Coast this week... and it did form into a "non-tropical low" along the coast. And, something could form... it would be a long shot and if something looks like it will the models may kick in again.

Note models are like melodies they are open to different discussions on what will be. And, maybe this year models are like dreams... just dreams and nothing more. But, they are reoccurring dreams that will not go away... will not stay away... they replay over and over like dreams in the dark of night

See? 

Same song... yet suddenly a sullen looking Superboy stares out into the dark of night... 

dreaming............

(how do you go from a MWS song to Smallville...hmnnnn)

As for me I'm watching football on Sundays. 

And, football to me is always a metaphor for life. So going to post my thoughts today on the extraordinary game between Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos. Sundays are often hard for me as I wish I was in Miami with some of my family going to Dolphin Games.

They got there for the pre-game fun...

....then the game began...not fun. 

Note..those are not Denver or Gator fans wearing orange tee shirts...

...those are empty seats.

And, pathetically I miss being in Miami for the Dolphin games..

... I need a shrink!

Badly... 

Anyone know a good one?

So, somewhere around the middle of the Seattle game I ...got lost in the Seattle game and stopped watching my screen update me on the Fins getting deeper and deeper into trouble.

And, these are my thoughts on life... and football.

I just watched the most amazing football game. Seattle just beat Denver in OT. Yeah,  I've been a Seattle fan since I lived in LA & I like Russell Wilson who went to NC State. So what hit me was Manning threw an interception & a close up of his face showed such anger, frustration... pain. I've never seen the Fins QB show such emotion on his face. He just trots off the field like "okay... moving on..." and Manning brought the team back to tie the game with a 2 point conversion that put the game into OT. Seattle got the ball first... went the length of the field and scored a TD. I almost felt bad for Manning. And...THAT ...is how you PLAY...WORK at football. Awesome game. Yeah,  I was very upset over not being able to watch Fins but you know... not paying to watch them lose over and over... still love them but it's about passion & determination.. it's not a rehearsal or even a dress rehearsal... it's about doing what you got to do and playing your heart out... with passion and determination every game, every play and yeah I still love the Fins but so over that earlier depression.

Live a life extraordinary as the song goes and hope you have beautiful dreams..

In the tropics...I'm watching...cause that's what we do in September..

...and at night... we dream....

Sweet tropical dreams, 

Bobbi