Hurricane Harbor: Hurricane Edouard? 65 Degrees in Raleigh.. really? Blue Jeans WXR

First off... Hurricane Edouard is approaching Hurricane strength in the Atlantic.

5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 14
Location: 24.0°N 49.7°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Edouard is the last man standing in the tropics today. All the invests are pretty much gone and the NHC is issuing advisories on his movement and forecasting him to become a Hurricane later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 24.0N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 26.2N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 27.5N 55.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 28.9N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 33.0N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 42.0N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Looking at the graphics from the NHC we see that Edouard will stay...out to sea.

So...that's story with Edouard

What else is going on in the tropics? Actually, a lot is going on behind the scenes but nothing that is ready to open on Broadway. Some waves that are practising their lines, steps and trying to get into character but they are far from prime time players.

Years ago we all talked incessantly on "Invests" in private chat rooms and messaging. It all seemed almost weather spy like that we watched these systems no one knew was on the map before they became "vigorous tropical waves" or Tropical Depression. Now.. if I go a day without hearing the term "INVEST" I'll be thrilled. I want a hurricane or two or three poorly organized Tropical Storms to discuss ... not an INVEST. Yet, TWC has gone cray cray on the term Invest because there isn't much else to talk about in the Atlantic these days. Suddenly the term "INVEST" is all the rage and it's driving me cray cray.

Cray cray for anyone who does not have a few millenials in the family means CRAZY! Tomorrow we will work on the term YOLO!

I'm digressing. Sorry about that but there isn't a lot to say about the tropics today.

A cursory glance (haha cursory...cursive.. something they do not know how to do..write cursive) shows convection in the Caribbean being kicked up by the ULL that looks more like a black hole to the center of the universe.

It's at the far left of the screen... better seen on the GOM loop, but i want to point out another feature in the Atlantic so staying with this one. Pinwheels of moisture swirling around just north of the tip of the Yucatan is one of the factors keeping the system that was over South Florida from forming. Choppy upper air pattern.

The wave moving towards South America is flying under the radar. No real discussion by the models on it as they are watching the wave that just moved off of Africa. It will lift and miss Trinidad and it might be worth watching the rest of the day. It has a beautiful shape, pocket of moisture and a steadiness to it that many of the other waves have lacked. In 80s terms.. it's like Beyonce trying on gowns for the red carpet.

Sort of Neptunian goes Oscar look if you ask me..

We're just gonna call this a tropical wave because that is what it is...

Speaking of nice shapes... Edouard really does look good on the visible imagery this morning

SE of Edouard but NE of the tropical wave is the last wave off of Africa..

sort of a mini caricature of big brother Edouard up there..

or is it "son of Edouard" ??

Doesn't look like Fay...just saying.

It's a real tropical drama out there...stay tuned...

Both seem to be vying for our attention.

In the upper left part of the image above you'll see a cold front making it's way across the US.

Sort of sliced into my neck of the woods this morning and the windows are open... coolish air blowing in.

Now let's talk model fantasies.. because most of the modeling this hurricane season has been just that, fantasizing. They have blown up and developed more waves than we have had exit Africa. I'm talking on long term modeling obviously. Short term they are pretty good. The goal was to raise the bar on long term modeling and they've failed this year.

OBX gets hit by a tropical system ..and I mean on the money. As in pin the head on the donkey.

BULLSEYE!!!

Note this hurricane like system gets there from the GOM....

Follow the red line... cruises straight up towards the Chesapeake Bay

Click on the link below and hit forward...enjoy. CMC model never wants to grow up. But, sometimes it gets it right or...it gets some things right.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2014091400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRh-vBOS-dU

You will be happy to know that the GFS nor the EURO see anything like that happening any time soon. So... if you want to fantasize the Canadian is rich territory trust me.

Here's the only model ready for the public to see...

Oh wait that's strange why is there a small line off the coast of FL in blue? hmnnn

And, that's the truth of what is going on in the tropics...nothing that is really worth talking about just yet...except for Edouard swimming out in the Atlantic.. one beautiful fish storm.

Only thing I will say is some signs say "yes yes yes" while the NHC says "no no no" which makes you wonder "oh oh oh"