NHC Says Maybe. GFS Says YES, Euro says NO NO NO

We're down to one....

#1 Numero Uno... maybe Eduardo

Odds from Vegas (NHC) are 30% short term chances, 60% long term chances. New models come out soon and we'll see if they up that or take it down a notch at 2PM on the next update.

Where does it go? WNW...then it either curves NW as a stronger system or continues towards a date in a sailboat off the Virgin Islands where it will either develop deeper or wander along WNW.

All the other Xs and circles and subject areas are gone. Invests have all departed the scene at the NRL Navy site tho the NHC is holding on to the floater for the lead wave on it's site. Hmnnn.

From the floater I'd say it's going WNW for now... or do they say just north of Due West. Hard to say but it does have a spin and whatever it does today does not really tell the story. It's ability to spin and convect in an ocean that is way too dry for tropical development really does tell the story. For now it's out there alone... battling for it's life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5ab8BOu4LE



Where will it go?

Same track as Bertha according to the GFS as it approaches Puerto Rico it ramps up. The always standoffish Euro isn't impressed that much. And, why would it be seeing as all the other waves coming off of Africa have done the same dance.

Here's an image that shows the problem.



Note #thereisnohurricane as my friend Billy Corben likes to say. There is a tropical wave and models do show it moving steadily WNW towards the islands. Maybe it will become a hurricane and we can change that tag to #OHLOOKTHERESAHURRICANE! or #LOOKAUNTIEEMDOROTHYFLIES or just get a few advisories going on this system. I hate to always quote Jimmy Buffett but on this one he's right "only time will tell" and that's the way it goes in the tropics today.

Mind you... sometimes while everyone is panning a wave as if it should be nominated for the Rotten Tomato Award for Tropical Waves a wave suddenly pulls it together and takes off like it's the 1935 Labor Day Storm or Andrew and everyone ends up wondering how they missed that one. The models are not known for doing a good job with intensity and if a wave has a well developed center it's disorganized cloudiness can sometimes spin up and bite you in the ass while you were looking the other way.

Incredible video of a great play used somewhere in a football game that could shows what could happen if one of these waves makes it to a sweet spot when no one is expecting development. Note I used the word "could" twice and only saying .... you never know 100% when you are dealing with tropical weather what will happen down the tropical road when it's September.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=582554245223445&fref=nf

Click on that link above .. you may have to watch it 2 or 3 times to figure out what happened, or not if you are extremely sneaky like Waldo, Skippy or Barney or some other stooges out there who will get it on the first click.

www.spaghettimodels.com has the models up and they show that "some" models think it has the intensity to become Hurricane Edouard. Some think it can be a Tropical Storm with the E name. Some thing Eddie doesn't have a chance in hell of doing much more than the last Edouardo want to be did. Keep watching.

The bottom model shows the intensity guidance or the spread in the models on just how strong this wave could become. It changes daily with the models so keep checking back.

In truth this week is about a battle for the seasons.

Hurricane Season in September without any named Hurricanes

vs

Winter trying to horn in on Autumn before the leaves even fall off the trees.

A strong cold front is forecast to move through the NE and into the Deep South this week. Snow is forecast in some areas, frost in others and may I remind you when it snows onto a tree that has lots of green leaves on it.... the tree gets heavy and often there is more damage than you'd expect. Because it's supposed to snow AFTER the tree is devoid of leaves. That's how nature usually works.

Winter models vs Hurricane models.

Why is the model showing this northern bend?

Because the cold front picks it up, grabs it and swings it out to sea.

Unless....it stays weak.. gets further west & missed the cold front. 

A real long shot.

We do have a flagged area for development of hazards in the Atlantic yet..

it don't impress me much...

NOAA says yes, yes, yes...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-bsf2x-aeE

However the EURO says NO, NO, NO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjusaN8Jpr0

But well..............the GFS says Maybe...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVUVeEgXkK0

What can I say? It's 2014 the summer of flooding in the SW from tropical moisture where storm chasers went to chase storms...      

And, yes Virginia it's still raining off the coast of the Carolinas....

Aww the ironies of life... no name system drenches the OBX 

Again something to remember #MotherNatureALWAYSfindsaway

It's all about energy being transferred from the poles around the earth one way or another.

Besos Bobbi

Ps 1: A very special shout out to Jim Williams, one of the best mets I know and a great guy. It's his birthday. He shares it with the anniversary of the Galveston Hurricane. You can wish him Happy Birthday on www.canetalk.com that is on his site www.hurricanecity.com. 

http://canetalk.com/2014/09/1410186888_1410183972.shtml

Without Hurricane City there would be no Hurricane Harbor which is a long, long story but the message board is still there and so are some of my favorite people ..including Jim!

Ps 2:  yes I know it's still raining in Charleston and we have a flash flood warning in Raleigh and I don't care cause you know why?? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK4GNJbvZjs

Yes...........I'm ready for some football!