CV Wave Red Chances, Bahama Blob with Yellow X & Memories of Hurricane Dora

Okay first & foremost is the 70% Red Chance that the CV Wave develops in 5 Days.

That is per NHC and their Vegas like odds. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

70% is pretty high. A bit surprised TWC is being such a Negative Nancy on such high odds.

Yes, I know there's dry air but it has held on steady and seems set to make the Atlantic crossing.

Barring any Icebergs I do think this will make it across, but others believe it's a Tropical Titanic.

I like the fact that is has a nice spin & the moisture is in the right spot. 

Good sign for a long shot.

We'll see. It could become the E storm named Edouard.

Surprisingly at 2PM the NHC went head to head with the Apple Live Show.

They snuck in a yellow circle off the SE Coast when no one was watching.. but me & a few friends.

Next is the area off the coast of South Florida in the Bahamas that I have called a Ghost Cane.

It's convection connected in ways to the ULL that has been parked there.

Often these systems can work their way down to the surface..

...especially when there is a stalled out front nearby.

There's a dark drama going on in the tropics with upper level lows swirling like dark pin wheels, swirling about feeding each other moisture and taking it away. Enhancing and diminishing, strengthening and interfering. Swirling around and around as if to say "no, no you cannot force me to go away until I want to" and I'm guessing until a strong cold front sweeps through this lava lamp look is going to continue for a while. Not to say something cannot spin up and might. The area CLOSE IN between Miami and the Bahamas does have a yellow circle with 20% chances in 5 days of being Fay. Yes, first comes Edouard and then comes Fay. (Trying not to laugh hysterically here...) After Fay comes Gonzalo. Maybe it's as well we don't have hurricanes this year. Can we throw this list out please... pretty please?

And, the area in the Caribbean that flares up, turns purple and then blue is not highlighted but a part of the complex weather patterns involved in what feels like one huge trof.

You just never know.




Most models take the Red Fish out to sea... maybe, probably... it will swim out to sea helped by the very impressive cold front that everyone is waxing poetic on that will sweep through the South down the road.

Why should you not get complacent about the tropics?

1. In North Carolina the only other years where we had this much rainfall ushered in hurricanes like Fran, Bonnie... we already had Arthur make landfall on the Outer Banks. I've said this before.. record rainfall in NC usually is a sign of a September hurricane.. 

2. This much rain in Miami and South Florida usually brings an October Hurricane. It's been a wet, odd year down there and rainfall totals are way high already. If something forms from the tango of a tropical wave that makes it into the Caribbean and mixes with a stalled out cold front anything that forms will wait until the next cold front for a ride out of the tropics. Florida is always in the way of such systems.

Patterns exist.... the commonality was they caught a cold front or trof... whichever name you use.

Here's some pictures from a similar October hurricane in 1909 in Key West. Happens. 

That's Duval Street BEFORE La Concha was there..........

That was the Fire Department..........before the Hurricane.

Incredible pictures to get lost in...

My Great Uncles were in a few of these pics when they were little kids. 

They are filled with faces and places I know so well.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/keyslibraries

So, stay tuned because it's not over until it's over and it's not over.

And, yes I want the new Apple Watch. I'm not crazy on iPhones but wow that watch. And, I don't even wear watches but I might if I got that watch... 

Besos Bobbi

Ps... a very good read is from the NHC on Hurricane Dora. A rare hurricane in that it hit the North part of the Florida East Coast and drove meteorologists crazy with loops in it's crooked track towards Jacksonville.. Daytona... St. Augustine... no Daytona..not an easy storm to forecast.

http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2014/09/09/50th-anniversary-of-hurricane-doras-st-augustine-landfall/

A long tracker that took an unique road..before going out to sea. A fish that made landfall...