A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, November 07, 2024
Rafael an Interesting November Hurricane. One for History Books. K.I.S.S. Today ;)
King of basic, but strange.
This will be an example for years to come.
November strange weather patterns.
High builds in.... shuffles West.
Granted models do offer other solutions.
NHC does a good job.
So let's go with their solution.
GFS takes it North.
Favorite target Nola?
You can see the front that dipped down, but did not grab Rafael as the High Pressure to it's East pushed it West not allowing it to be scooped up by the front. All things being equal the front would have won, but strong High Pressure is well...strong. So it drifts... West... still beautifully wound up with 100 MPH winds, so this is not lightweight storm and yet it's a small intensely wound up core. Yes, I said "wound up" twice to drive the point home. What the GFS is seeing I don't know, but while it's often made fun of it's been right more than it's been wrong this year and the EURO has struggled. On any given Sunday one model that's often made fun of gets it right.
As for the yellow circle headed into the Bahamas, there are low chances but it could up the ante for rain in the South Florida area as well as Cuba.
115 MPH Rafael Outperforming Models & NHC Original Forecast Moving Towards Landfall in Cuba. Sometimes Models Like Polls Are Wrong. Stay Tuned. Tough Storm... Tenacious!
Rafael made landfall in Cuba
Currently crossing Cuba as a Cat 3.
Zoom Earth.
I like this view it shows the huge plume of moisture.
I'm going to say something here and be clear I'm not saying to ignore the NHC Cone, I'm saying that while the NHC tracks the "center" it will track it into the Gulf of Mexico until it's dead, dead, gone. But, the moisture while it's being shredded by wind shear and dealing with drier air ...the moisture will get pulled North into the frontal boundary that is sliding slowly from West to East across the USA. Well part of it and another part may get into the Gulf of Mexico. It's hard to say what will be as models disagree and there's few analog storms to review that would compare. Florida will be rainy from a combo of ingredients. The Southeast in general will have moisture. And, some part of this Major Hurricane is forecast to move West shoved by the High Pressure and most models have it falling apart. I'd like to add, expect surprises as it's 2024!
Part of Rafael goes West.
Some of it gets pulled North.
It could loop in the GOM...
...or it could just fade away.
But today.... it's a Cat 3 over Cuba.
Wrote this in real time...
...so below is the 2 PM
Have a good evening.
Get some rest...
...we will see what will be soon.
* * *
2 PM in real time.
115 MPH
Life happens in real time.
Rafael over Cuba.
Tropics today, the morning after...
Yellow X still there, watch it.
Rafael stronger than ever!
Still going strong...
Why watch?
First up Rafael!
Currently forecast to be Cat 3
...before landfall!
Looks like a Cat 3 to me.
Honestly way stronger than NHC early forecasts.
Models showed that, many have talked on it.
But NHC playing catch up in real time.
One advisory package at a time.
Can cause severe flooding.
Death, destruction.
Basically 2024.
110 MPH!!!
Rafael outperformed expectations....
Cone takes a hard left hand turn.
The HIGH builds in...
You can see the huge wide High.
Just shoving Rafael along to the left.
Models are wonky run to run.
Sometimes models are right.
Other times like Polls wrong.
Time will tell with Rafael.
So many questions.
I got to sleep really, really late last night. Woke up really, really late this morning. Spoke long to a few of my kids, the other kids seem very quiet. Sky is blue in Raleigh and it's going to be a ridiculous 81 degrees today and weather is misbehaving all over the USA in different ways. Seasons in November with various weather systems clashing. Let's look below, down below. No...not Austraila but the EPAC as it seems Rafael may want to go down there for some reason.
Hurricane Rafael Cuba Bound! Intensifying!! NHC Forecasts to be 105 MPH before Landfall in Cuba. New Yellow Circle in Atlantic with Florida Concerns.
Rafael intensifying.
Fairly fast and steady.
May be fast and furious by Cuba.
10 PM forecasts 105 MPH
before landfall.
Crossing Cuba with the path it's currently on takes it across a narrow part of the Island and if moving fast it's not going to lose much intensity crossing Cuba. There is still shear, dry air the further North it goes but it's worth remembering this has potential to do real damage in Cuba and only time will tell what it does next.
Lastly ....
Not saying this is like Camille.
Strength wise no way.
But it's an interesting signature.
Curious to see what it looks like on VIS
in the morning.......
Obviously Camille on the right.
But shape, orientation similar.
Similar enough to catch my eye.
Keep watching.
Keep reading please from earlier tonight.
* * *
Ps it also picked up speed a bit.
Beautiful screen grab from Gary Stephenson
Consolidating a CDO
Reminds me of a historic hurricane.
Not posting it. Just true though.
Tenacious fighter.
Earthnull also looks good.
There's an old time measure of a tropical system down South of Cuba for old time Floridians and my family goes back to the 1800s in Florida. Does it go over Havana ... if so people in Key West and the Florida Keys, the Miami area and SW Tampa from Ybor City in Tampa South all watch it wearily no matter what the NHC says in their advisories. Until it's past them, they never believe it can't impact them in some way. Remember, Key West has a Tropical Storm Warning currently, will be curious what changes later tonight or in the morning while we all wait and wonder what will be with the election.
Rafael 60 MPH Moving NW at 13 MPH. Fighting Dry Air on West Side and Working On It's Core... TW Warnings for Key West. Tornado Warnings in Louisiana. Santa Ana Winds LA.
Rafael more convection at the center.
This began last night as I noted on X.
Consolidation of Rafael's center.
Right sided system dealing with dry air.
Again it's November not August or September.
In ways when you look at Rafael in the context of the Caribbean Sea he looks much further to the East than he really is as he is right side loaded. On the Water Vapor Loop below you can see the issue of dry air that is dogging him, and he is trying hard to mix out the dry air and working on building his Core as if he's living at at a Pilates center and we will see later today how successful Rafael is dealing with not the most conducive environment considering it's November not Peak of the Season, tho for our backloaded season it seems like "peak of the season" but feelings are not always facts!
Dark black is "dry air"
You can see it moving down....
...around the left side of Rafael.
That's why Rafael is right side loaded.
Meaning convection on East side.
Keep that in mind down the road.
You can also see the plume of moisture..
...causing tornadoes on Election Day.
Louisiana has Tornado Warnings as I type.
People were so worried on some East Coast Cane.
But we have Tornadoes....
Close up and very personal.
I have a brother named Rafael, honest.
See it blooming.
Breathing.
Blossoming.
On left side the dark arm of dry air...
moving down, impeding expansion on West side.
My voice is a little off.
I like it, lower than usual.
Fighting off the end of a cold.
Or Fall Plague as Reed Timmer called it.
Rafael will only go where the atmosphere allows.
Moist little pocket.
Block on West side is dry air.
Yellow/black dry air.
If not for the strong High Pressure to the East of Florida this storm would move up towards Florida and then catch the cold front that's very slowly moving across the Country. That frontal boundary is kicking up Tornado Warnings on Election Day in places in the South and the temperatures are high in the Southeast and even up in NC it's supposed to be 80 degrees today. The High Pressure here is the GAME CHANGER. Models handle Rafael differently as the GFS sees a weaker ridge of high pressure to it's North and allowing a stronger Rafael to move further North than the models that show a weaker Rafael floundering around moving away from the high strong pressure to the West or NW or NNW.
So it comes down to what is today on the weather maps vs what CLIMO that would dictate being a curve at the end to the right hooking towards the NE part of GOM or Florida. But the High Pressure is blocking that movement currently. Rains from Rafael may move up into the Middle Part of the Country or even worse up into the mountains of NC. We just don't know yet.
Models as divided as the electorate.
Hard for me not to look at MS/AL/FL
But time will tell.
Great discussion today from Bevan at 11 AM it's worth reading and an easy discussion to understand. Lays it all out. I can watch the Water Vapor and the Mimic and see exactly what he writes about.
On a personal note regarding the NWS in Key West they are awesome and an integral part of the community there. When NWS KW was by the airport I'd hang out talking to a few of the forecasters, looking out at the Atlantic Ocean that was visible from the old office where they'd grab their cameras before cell phones and snap incredible imagery of water spouts. After they moved to the new beautiful facility built for them on White Street they would allow me to come in while I'd stay in Key West look at the computers and watch what was going on as you can only see from inside the NWS facilities. I'd take a walk over from my friend Tom's house and hang out a bit at the NWS. They gave my youngest son an amazing tour one day even allowing him to launch the balloon and enjoying the view that is only as good from La Concha Hotel rooftop in Key West. They are a great NWS, warm, friendly, easy going laid back and yet they take the weather there very seriously, especially tropical weather so since I'm in a mood today... saying Thank You again and again!
Not much else to add.
We have to watch Rafael.
Watch the High.
The lows and the highs.
The flow......
...then we will see where it goes.
Kind of like election day. My uncle died in his late 40s, I was devastated as we lived next door to them and I spent more time in their house than mine as he was a second father to me. He ran the Democratic Party tho I'm fairly sure today he'd have supported RFK Jr (not an endorsement just a whimsical comment) but I was raised with politics and sitting quietly through meetings with the Mayor at the old Howard Johnson on Biscayne Blvd sipping a milk shake while they talked politics. Over the years I became less party aligned and more aligned with how I felt on the issues in every election and the candidate I thought was best. It's good to belong to something, I get that but I'm an independent thinker always... more left brain than the right brain part that many see. We will see who wins soon enough, we have to wait until votes are counted and then see what happens. And, I think Election Day should be a National Holiday; yes I voted early as you never know when weather might interfere!
Hurricanes like life and elections evolve in real time. Hurricanes like football games evolve in real time often dependent not on the QB but how strong the defense is. If you don't believe check out Dan Fouts a legendary QB who repeatedly threw 300 yard games and the San Diego Chargers lost, as their defense allowed more points and the other team won no matter how good Fouts was in the same way as Tua can be incredible or Cam Newton but it's not always about one person in football, it's about the whole team and a team is only as good as it's weakest link. My father and my Uncle both talked football as a metaphor for life and yet they had different favorite iconic teams.
Joe Namath was once interviewed after throwing 5 interceptions in a game as to what he would say to people who say he purposely threw the game. The interview was up online for years, maybe you can find it as I've watched it over and over... bleeding, sweaty and exhausted Namath looked up at the reporter as if he was stupid and may have said "are you stupid?" and responded "Do you think any QB wants to throw 5 interceptions? Do you know how easy it is to throw at game? It's not about interceptions, a few poor hand offs to the Center can throw a game" and he was done......... and I thought, "wow, that easy" who knew.
Love football. Love history. Love Tropical Meteorology. Love Weather. Love Maps.
On any given Sunday a crappy team can somehow win. On any given Sunday a November Hurricane can do the impossible and surprise the models, forecasters and experts.......the way Beryl did when we began this hurricane season hitting Grenada (an island rarely hit directly) with a Cat 5 Hurricane on July 1st.
Prayers for people in the path of troubled weather today. Prayers for people in California as there is a Santa Ana Warning and I lived there, been there ...done that and as much as I loved Malibu and the pier in Santa Monica and walking on the backlot of 20th Century Fox where many great movies were made and worked by old MGM studios near Santa Monica Boulevard on Formosa. Santa Ana Winds are game changers. I onvr watched water running down my street from the Hollywood Hills as if we were having a tropical storm in "it never rains in Southern California" and found out that homes where an old friend lived burned down in the mountains. I've felt the heat on my face of a hot, Santa Ana devile wind and it can kill flowers in front of your eyes in real time while standing a red light as well as destroying homes and lives.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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