Hurricane Harbor: PTC 19...... Expected to be Sara.

Based on the presentation of Invest 99L and it's steady consolidation and as it will impact parts of Central America within the next 36 hours, the NHC has iniated Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 forecast to be upgraded to Sara in the near future. The Cone is above and shows the slow movement over the next several days while it lingers down in this region with weak steering currents. Things should change down the road, but for now this is the cone. Obviously up the road we are concerned on the Florida Peninsular that's been hit too often this year already and really doesn't need yet another Hurricane.

Recon did not go in today and they may go in tomorrow. Meanwhile it's being monitored by the NHC and an army of online meteorologists, weather people and anyone living in Florida that wants an early heads up before a possible landfalling tropical system.

Check back tomorrow. Currently, Central America is on soon to be Sara's dance card!

Latest Models above.

If you didn't read the blog earlier, please keep reading. Thanks for following along. Hope this helps.

11 AM

Starting with models.

Because that's what everyone wants.

"Where is it going?"

The question is....

...where does it form?

Recon on it's way....

Seems everyone is edgy regarding Invest 99L. Mike and I have bad memories of Invest 99Ls so let's start off with that, we were commiserating on X last night. Same thought, "oh...99L....OH..." add in some nasty words probably that I'm not posting here. Invests tagged 99L in our minds gives us the "Heebie-Jeebies" and that's not a comfortable feeling. Like someone walking over a grave, perhaps the grave of Hurricane Wilma that seems to be haunting many of us this week while watching this area come together.

What will Recon find?

Looks better than yesterday.

A sort of "roundish" look to it.

Wide round area.

No real shear there.

Water temperatures hot.

Recipe for trouble.

Let's look at more models.

So many questions....

Where does it form?

When does it form?

Where does it go?

Does it really hang down by Central America?

How long will it hang down by Central America?

How strong will it be down by Central America?

Where does it go after Central America?

Where in Florida will it make landfall?

How strong will it be on landfall?

Will it be tight and a small core on approach to Florida?

Will it be broad and all over Florida?

Will it be a tornado event like Milton over Florida?

Note few are asking............"long term where does it go?"

And that my friends is a big question.

Savvy weather history folks will ask:

"Could this go up the Eastern Seaboard after Florida?"

"Which part of the Eastern Seaboard could be impacted?"

"Could this impact North Carolina?"

"Could this impact Virginia"

"How about New England?"

Will this merge with a cold front?

Is this the last named storm?"

Note questions in quotation marks are important.

But first we deal with today.

When is it forming.

The answer my friends is blowing in the wind and recon is going in and we will know more later this afternoon. And, then once the data collected from Recon will be put into the next set of model runs we should have a better idea of what is going on with Invest 99L expected to become Sara soon.

So I'm going to leave now and wait to get info from Recon. Because anything I say is really just spitting into the wind and we aren't even sure which way the wind will be blowing in several days as there are many questions up the road that will steer Sara somewhere.

Today is a day of waiting. Waiting on Recon.

I'll be back. Til then enjoy the music and have a wonderful day!