Hurricane Harbor: Tropical Storm Rafael Forms from TD 18. Hurricane Warnings UP for Cayman Islands. Watch Tropical Wave Approaching Islands. Could We Get Sara Too?

Again "hazardous conditions can occur...

...outside of the Cone"

Strong winds far away in Key West.

Strong High, Rafael to the South.

Tropical Storm Watch currently.

Again to right of the current Cone...

...hazardous conditions can occur

outside the Cone!

Good example.

Main difference tonight...

NHC forecasts a stronger Hurricane.

90 MPH down the road.

Tomorrow is Election Day.

Are you the half of the country...

that voted early or voting tomorrow?

Will check back with NHC in the morning.

Not much to add.

Tropical Storms that form from the CAG are like watching paint dry as they try to pull together. While the environment, over time helps them spin it's not like watching a Tropical Wave rolling off of Africa spinning with severe weather in early rudimentary bands. A different breed of Tropical Systems and we have seen many this season, so by now you should know the drill.

As for models....lots of disagreement1

I'm waiting to see a loop shown soon.

A stronger storm goes more to the North.

A weaker storm is pushed by the High West.

But for how long?

November storms take grit and patience.

Hope they go somewhere else.

Charity for those in need.

Doesn't look like an Etch A Sketch?

So hard to make smooth curvy lines.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.

Please keep reading from earlier today.

* * *

11 AM

TD 18 and track from Zoom Earth.

Note small tropical wave approaching Islands.

(more on that later in blog)

Huge swath of unsettled low pressure...

...South of the High Pressure near Florida.

The placement of the High......

...strength of shear

and vertical alignment of Rafael

Will tell the tale.

Models vary due to how they handle the vertical alignment of TD18 and shear forecasts. Discussion at 11 says TD18's movement "jogged right" and that alligns with discussion earlier when they upgraded to TD status that weather was strongest on the South and SE side of the developing cyclone. That gives it more time in the open waters of the Caribbean, in my mind, and more time over warm hot water the easier it is once it vertically alligns to become stronger in intensity. At some point further to the North in GOM it should deal with shear especially this time of year. Time will tell.

NHC still believes it'll begin to move more to the NW as the forecast shows. Again, if you remember the models showing this system absorbing moisture/energy from the old yellow circle near PR with low changes of development, but helping TD 18 from the SW Carib to get it's mojo going. Takes a village in November for a tropical system to form and they often do so in odd, strange ways. Kate in November of 1985 formed from 2 different areas into one system though in a different part of the Caribbean, it made landfall along the GOM coast eventually being a rare landfalling cyclone deep in November followed by a late season system in December.

NHC says that portions of the Florida Keys may get some sort of watches or warnings at some point so they mention in their discussion they should be paying attention, especially the Lower Keys I'll add and Key West. They can get "impacts" far from the Cone as the Cone reminds us always. Discussion from NHC currently tops TD 18 eventually Rafael to be 80 MPH, obviously that could change it's early on just coming together. Where it does come together and what it looks like in vertical alignment will make the difference in it taking one track or the other deep into the GOM.