Hurricane Harbor: 3 Yellow Xs... NHC Goes BOO For Halloween. Is GFS Real or Doing a Trick Today and Where's the Treat Here? Patty Is That You? Rafael Also?

3 PM

Waited til now to update the blog.

I was sure the 2nd X would be shown today.

And, there is it is....the 2nd X!

The orange circle is now 60%

Still orange for Halloween!

the Yellow sliver like circle is 10%

According to NHC it'll be absorbed.

The Carib system absorbs it!

Isn't this a drama?

To add to the drama there's a 3rd circle.

Up in the Atlantic...not talking on it much.

But it's there!

Boo!

Below there's the WV Loop.

You can see the broad area of convection.

It's to the NE of our old Yellow X in SW Carib.

Love the water vapor loop.

Black and white and shades of gray.

It's a crystal ball if you know how to read it.

This was the Orange Pumpkin from the NHC at 8 AM

50% today for development in 7 days.

Looked a bit like a squashed pumpkin.

It's squashed because the High is pressing down on it.

And it's going to ultimately push it NW

to the left, to the left.

Wrote this at Noon...

..waiting for NHC to put up yellow X

and to acknowledge the 2nd yellow X

Please keep reading.

At 2 PM the 2nd Yellow X appeared!

So here we are.......

If you watched a video where someone on YouTube said this whole CAG mess might go NW once it forms and starts moving and you told them they didn't know what they were talking about... you might owe them an apology. If you did that on X .....well you know who you are..... and they knew this system was on hold, stalled out waiting for the elements to align properly and once they came together it would have to go more to the NW once it "all" started moving. The people showing the 2nd X were looking far, far down the road and you were thinking the SW Carib yellow circle "it's gonna form any day" and well they were right. I was right. I have sat back and watched with mild curiousity knowing it doesn't matter what I say today as everything will change and at 2 PM things changed.

Ps I am NOT saying this is going to form and take off like a long distance runner going all the way to Texas, but I am saying once it starts moving it will put fear and concern in the hearts of many along various cities along the Gulf of Mexico.

Perspective is everything.

Looking at our candidate for Patty....

...it's clinging to the coastline and waiting.

I've often said this...

..they hide down there on the ledge of Honduras.

Those that get fame, wait and just hover.

Waiting to develop.

Going wider...there's our 2nd Yellow X area!

(big golden orange area of convection)

There's a 2nd area of convection near or NW of PR.

If you remember those old long range models?

Yeah, that's still on the table.

It's now on the 2 day NHC map!

Going wider.........

....oh look! There's a Circle.

And it's all going round and round.

You can see the spin on the wide loop.

The little hook to the left in the black...

...N of DR is an upper level low.

It's been there, swirling

Shearing the system near PR

Upper Level Lows are funny.

They can feed a developing system.

Or they can hinder it.

Sometimes they do both at different times.

This is all about TIME today.

At 3 PM I edited what I wrote....

...in an unfinished blog.

So here we are.......

...where do we go from here?

CMC says this about 8 days from now.

Don't shoot the messenger.

We see one huge storm...

...and a small one tagging along.

The EURO in 6 days....

...shows a weaker system.

A strong cold front.

It kind of all gets absorbed.

The GFS .... saved the best for last.

Shows them doing a dance....

SW Carib curves around...

swirls around...

one part goes into GOM

and the other part........

.......slides up Florida coast.

Note this could be wrong it's long term.

GFS... most likely will change.

Where does this end?

On this 1 run on Thursday......

8 days down the road a storm hits Carolinas.

The other remnant low is in GOM

An EPAC storm forms.

Everyone gets a storm on the GFS.

For a while on Friday it does Wilmington NC

Then OBX then rushes up the coast (offshore)

FAST

Bottom Line:

We just really don't know, nothing has formed. Models can back off and make the forecasters at NHC nervous they introduced the 2nd X (as they should have) or models show it hitting Florida or Cuba..or maybe they both dance away from the coastline caught up with some fast moving front. But, the problem is next week is a warm week for this area that's seen several cold fronts with temperatures higher this week then early next week a cold front goes through and then.....we don't know

One model run. What will the next model show?

Remember a week or so ago (seems like a week) the GFS showed a huge storm impacting Florida and or the Carolinas or both on Election Day and everyone online went crazy arguing whether there is weather modification or some evil plot or Lex Luthor was out there lurking with his weather machine and meteorologists reminded everyone they don't make the weather and there's no such thing and well it's been a shit show ever since Helene plowed deep inland as the NHC forecast it would and caused the catatrophic flooding the NHC put in it's discussion way before Helene made landfall in Florida.

We have a pattern going.

Is that pattern about to break?

Does the Gulf of Mexico get another hurricane?

Could a hurricane get far enough to hit areas West of Florida?

Does Florida need another hurricane?

Is Miami really protected or does Miami's luck runs out?

NC has had a few storms this year, this would be another one... but only if it's merging with a front and then it'd be up in Virginia before you could type Virginia. Hey Virginia...watch out, you never know.

And that is the motto of this blog that's now way too long.

What we know is there are 2 areas being monitored in the Caribbean including the one going East that better not hit Spain as over 150 people are dead from flooding there that looked a whole lot like Helene in NC except there's a city where bulls usually run but in this case water ran downhill through the narrow roads and cars flowed downhill with people in them either scrambling out or trapped in their cars under other cars.

Talk about a Halloween Nightmare.

what a nightmare :(

Didn't mean to go dark in my online weather diary but hey it's been a year and we still don't have a final total on how many people have died from Helene, though varoius agencies have put out a statistic but people are sleeping in tents, whole families, on what's left of their property and show has already fallen there and we need to figure out how to faster get help to people in America who have gone through horrible weather disasters as well as pray for those around the world having other weather disasters.

What can I say? On a lot of medicine for a sinus infection that doesn't seem to be Covid and isn't all just allergy and I'm sitting in bed typing this while I look out the window and there's leaves falling to the ground like butterflies dancing in the breeze. It is so frigging beautiful here this time of year. I went to Sprouts to buy more herbal stuff earlier and there is a box where people are donating foods for hurricane relief in Western North Carolina and love the way people jump on giving charity and helping here, it's an awesome place to live.

And you gotta take the bad along with the good as everywhere people live there is something that can get them be it a Twister or a Hurricane or a Flood or Blizzard and more people die in Heat Waves than they do in most hurricanes.

Could GFS happen?

There's always a chance but it's logical at least a piece of one of the Lows gets pulled North. Do they dance, I don't know... yes ....no ... maybe.

Remember most hurricanes this time of year (November in less than 9 hours) are strongest to the South than to the North and usually when there is one that pulls North the energy gets transferred to a frontal boundary and............sometimes something starts to happen and then suddenly it gets left behind, stuck somewhere waiting for the next front ....

Time will tell.

Start over tomorrow on November 1st and we will see what curve balls the models throw at us as we move into the realm of wild tracking November tropical systems. This isn't Hurricane Mitch, it'll never be Mitch but Mitch did wreak havoc this time of year and then after doing Central America it did South Florida. I remember, I was there ;)