PTC 18 Forms. NHC Forecasts TS By Monday. Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba in the Cone. Then Cone Goes Wide!! Florida Keys Pay Atten ... Just in Case.

 

PTC 18

97L always becomes something....

Can be impacts outside the Cone.

Remember that.

TS by tomorrow.. Monday.

Jamaica late Monday.

Cuba and Cayman Islands..Tuesday/Wednesday.

This is the current time table.

It's not an easy job for the NHC but I'm personally good with the Potential Tropical Cyclone Alert as we have gotten to a place where via modeling and other analysis know that a Tropical Storm is forming and may be at a certain location by tomorrow night and it's valuable to be able to put up watches and warnings for the people on that area in a timely fashion. Nothing wrong with that. We have evolved from hand progging forecasts and old maps to models to better models and if we can give a heads up that lessens the loss of life, better to do it than to wait til the storm gets a name.

Jamaica to Cuba the track if fairly well set, though there can always be some deviation in the actual track. But, after Cuba, models disagree and the end of the cone is wide for a reason. With time it'll be narrowed down. Currently, the main concern in Florida is for the Florida Keys that may be closer to strong weather than the rest of Florida. This will be revised in real time but needs to be mentioned tonight. In theory it's forecast to be a minimal hurricane at this point. As always once a center forms models have better output.

Jamaica and Cuba has mountains and there could be flooding and mudslides as that's always a concern. This last point from NHC is important. Rain and Terrain = Pain and flooding kills people. 

Note the spread after Cuba.

Again IF it crosses East Tip.

Less land interaction.

Can strengthen over warm water.

Further North in GOM there should be shear.

Does Rafael do a Florida hook right?

Most models actually hook it left.

Then due North up into the USA.

There's a reason I played Jambalaya the other day.

Could that happen or ...does Climo kick in.

And pull it further East ????

I thought it was plausible .......

....but would be a rare track for November.

Will look at what could be Sara tomorrow!

And what the NHC has to say about Rafael as well.

Stay tuned.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Sweet Snowy Dreams

Whatever dreams you desire...

BobbiStorm

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