NHC Upgrades to Sara! Impacting Central America with Heavy Rains ...Deadly, Destructive Situation. Florida Solution Possible... Just Delayed....

 

Well that happened.

The ever changing models.......

Note there's still a right hook.

Just because Cone ends before that..

It's like delayed gratification...

...tho this is more like delayed misery!

November 20th and 21st!

NOAA Forecast Maps.

Don't turn your back yet on Sara.

Pray she is not so mean to Central America!

Will update later today or tonight!

Keep reading from 10 AM today

* * *

10 AM Thursday

Nothing in life happens in a vacuum.

This is true. 

Especially with regard to tropical weather.

Especially late in Fall.

This has slow, slow, slow...faster.

Then ...FAST written all over it.

Today anyway.

Mid November is a time of change.

Weather changes fast, models change often.

Way back when I was in college I was considered an expert at "linkage" and that concept in International Relations is still a valid school of theory regarding how the world works between nations. Foreign Policy. Weather, especially tropical weather, is all about linkage. Mike, from Spaghetti Models aka Mike's Weather Page, is a pro at linkage and his ability to lay out the grids making it easier for the viewer to see what is going on and it's so subtle even he may not be aware how good he is...

How strong will Sara be is the question? Funny we both have daughter's named Sara (in my case I dropped the h and used it for my daughter Dina's middle name) and as I type this thinking what to say Recon IS going in TODAY as there was some problem yesterday and we should... (never say "should" Yaffah says but I always do my own thing) hopefully get good data to put into the models after Recon collects the data and that's good as models are beginning to disagree over intensity down the line.

As I said yesterday, Central America is where it's at today. They have terrain and rivers and creeks that are prone to flooding and even a weak storm could create a death toll.

If you connected the dots above you'll see we have strong fronts on the move currently and pockets of High Pressure.

Above is an image taken from the Mimic Loop, it's the image most relevant to explain a bit about the life and steering currents that will impact Sara.  Note the huge, massively huge area of intense tropical moisture soon about to be unleashed on the region shown in the map below. 

I love maps.

Lost of maps in International Relations!

It's swirling, it's spinning, it's trying hard to consolidate all this convection into a neat bundle worthy of a name vs a Tropical Depression.  Note the last front way out in the Atlantic. Generally at first the front pushes through and then a deep, strong High sets up and presses down seen above in the Fall like shade of Purple seen currently in the Roxa Palette from Natasha Denona.  This is how my brain works, it's either Crayola or Eye Shadow ;) and the next front is currently slicing through the Appalachians and into the Raleigh area with a batch of early rain declaring that the forecast for rain for the Carolins was definitely valid and happening sooner rather than later. The front (orange gold vertical line) dips down through the Florida Panhandle linking up with moisture leftover from let's not go there and soon connecting with soon to be Sara.

Bernie Rayno put this up earlier.

One thing I like about him... let's say appreciate.....is when he is wrong early on he admits he was wrong and then often explains why he was wrong helping others to understand how difficult it is to predict where a system that hasn't formed yet will go and the multitude of things that can change the timing, intensity or direction in real time. The current set up pushes soon to be Sara WEST into Central America, possibly Mexico (chasers are waiting as I type this to book a ticket to Cancun) depending on how deep into land Sara goes and then if most models are right it gets pulled back fast as if someone pulled on it's chain suddenly and takes off fast for a vacation somewhere in Florida.

As there are a myriad of possible tracks after the Yucatan the NHC is currently playing it safe and showing what is now vs what your mind (you know who you are) is thinking as you connect the dots!

Stay tuned. 

Hoping it's not too hard on Central America as slow movement of a very, wet, moist tropical storm can create misery and death.

Florida knows it's there. 

We all do.

It's a wait and see day.

Rainy in Raleigh ....

Everything in life is timing.

IF Sara had formed faster and was strong.

Might have linked up with the current front.

But the current front is slip sliding fast away

It came in 3 hours early in Raleigh ...

TD 19 or Sara gets stuck a bit.

Steering currents weaken.

Not good for Central America.

This time of year....

..there's another front down the road.

Maybe current forecast is off.

Possibly as it's just forming.

It's West of NHC forecast points.

BUT... once back over water.

The forecast is for...

..excellent conditions for intensification.

How strong?

We don't know.

But we will know soon nuff.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter