Tropical Depression #1 Forms... in time to mess up July 4th at the beach... UP THE EAST COAST..

The problem with TD #1 at the present time is that it puts all of the East Coast in the cone for the July 4th Weekend. TD #1 AKA soon to be Tropical Storm Arthur will most likely stay off shore for part of it's trip up the Eastern Seaboard. But, until we know for sure ... the extended 5 Day Cone is a killer for Beach Cities economies on their biggest day of Summer.

The reason I say this is because many of the towns inside the left side of the cone rely on a good July 4th Holiday to tide them over well into the lean season of Fall and Winter. Summertime in that part of the world is 3 months, 4 or 5 if you get lucky...  then things go back to being quiet and sleepy days and nights where only the locals hang out. July 4th is the biggest weekend of the summer and for many towns it is now in danger of being a no show where only the storm chasers and surfers go..

Look at this graphic that shows where Tropical Storm Winds "could" be felt vs the cone above. Some have a lower chance of feeling TS winds, some higher. But...if your city falls inside this cone you have a better chance of seeing strong winds than winning the lotto on that scratch off you just bought at the gas station. Just saying... think on that for a minute.

This chart on www.spaghettimodels.com shows that MOST LIKELY Arthur will stay off shore.. well in most places it will. But, for now it's a crap shoot how far West Arthur may bobble and how many cities may feel more than strong surf from this storm.

For now.. it ain't much to look at. Poorly put together and dry air plaguing parts of this storm... but in a few days conditions improve and he goes from being a weak Tropical Depression to a Hurricane. Some have even insisted that he could become a Category 2 storm down the road.

Posting what we jokingly call "the juice loop" for it's bright orange color.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Look at that roll it forms off the East Coast of Florida.

So... we will wait for tonight's model runs that will have the data from today's flight into the Tropical Depression figured into the next Discussion from the NHC at 5 AM. Also, we will see what the Tropical Depression does itself vs what the models say it might do. Stay tuned.

For  now... this is from the link that gives percentages for possibilities. Note... everywhere from the coast of North Florida to Long Island (including New York and Newark) and Nova Scotia are in it. By Thursday this cone will have narrowed and we will have "more better" data and a more exact track for Tropical Storm Arthur.

If you live in this cone..... think on getting any supplies you may need and making alternative plans for July 4h weekend. If and when the storm passes you buy... PLEASE go to your local beach town and BUY some ice cream, food... resort clothes and any tee shirts that say "I survived Tropical Storm Arthur" and or "Hurricane Arthur" or... I LOVE THE USA...

Besos Bobbi

Ps... yes it begins... See the list of cities below and learn how to use this feature the NHC puts up on their advisory every 6 hours. If they think it's worth posting, I think it's worth learning how to use. Many will tell you it's meaningless... (do you really think the NHC would post something meaningless??) and or they haven't been around as long as I have to see its real value.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/010301.shtml?

Tropical Depression ONE Wind Speed Probabilities Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   US Watch/Warning   000 FONT11 KNHC 010301 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 32(46) 1(47) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 22(47) 1(48) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 11(46) X(46) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 35(41) 5(46) X(46) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 32(44) 1(45) X(45) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 16(32) X(32) X(32) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 19(31) 8(39) 1(40) X(40) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 16(25) 7(32) X(32) X(32) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 10(12) 23(35) 8(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 3 12(15) 14(29) 3(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 13 27(40) 14(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) COCOA BEACH FL 50 1 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 13 26(39) 14(53) 2(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) PATRICK AFB 50 1 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) PATRICK AFB 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 26 20(46) 6(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) FT PIERCE FL 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 12 8(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MIAMI FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 9 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

NHC gives Invest 91L a Red Circle, Ups chances to 80% formation long term.

I'm not awake yet, but our Invest is quite awake...he is just quietly awake and biding his time. A sneaky sort of guy. But, he is there. Watch this loop below and note how the first good morning visible pops out and shows the details. Again, the devil is always in the details. Without the visible satellite image below you would think the system was closer to WPB & Miami rather than off shore of Melbourne. Either way, please note, it went way further South than most of the models showed it would yesterday. That was a slow trot to the South, not a drifting about almost stationary as many online and on air had said it would do yesterday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

If you watched the loop you would see how clearly visible the center is and also how partially naked it is on the north side of any real convection.  That should change over time and I emphasize the word "should" as that means it "could" but might not. Should is an iffy, preachy word..but it relates to Arthur this morning.

Sneaky center of the once and future Arthur, but not ready for prime time just yet Invest 91L. I highlighted the center in yellow in case you missed it squinting through the Cumulonimbus to the South of the true center.

The NHC gives this a bright RED circle this morning and expects it to become at least a Tropical Depression. That is what is called by many hedging your bets.   :)

It is given a 60/80% chance for development. Sixty in the short term, 80% in the long term. A friend of my Stuart taught me to think in short term/long term ways. Seems the NHC has caught on to Stuart's advice.

The official line from the NHC is that conditions are improving and surface pressures are dropping and despite a less than stellar presentation this morning they are most likely going to have their first real discussion put out on a Tropical Depression in the next few days.

" Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with

a low pressure area located about 140 miles east-northeast of
Melbourne, Florida.  However, surface pressures are falling, and
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days.  A tropical depression is
likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly
southwestward and thens turns northward and northeastward near the
southeastern United States coast."

What does that mean for you?

Well the Invest did ratched up the level of the Miami Monsoons yesterday. This picture was taken from my once and future daughter-in-laws apartment in the Williams Island area...

One minute it was sunny and bright at the beach................and then it was not.

Down in Big Pine Key, that some call BPK for sure... my friend Pat which I guess stands for P could not keep the door shut against the strong winds. They blew in fast... 35 to 45 mph gusts.

If you watch the Water Vapor Loop you'll see it was as if it was sending down storms to areas to the SW of the center much like King Zeus.

See... Arthur/Zeus sent a big storm down to SW..

you also see that the front is leaving him behind... 

he seems too far south for the next one to get...

which leaves the one behind that one... to grab him..

maybe..

I'll leave the visuals to Mike right now as I'm on the road and short on time.

www.spaghettimodels.com

There is only ONE image I want you to think on right now.. in the short term..

Eventually... "Arthur" goes NE... 

NNE or NE... 

but he is forecast by the NHC to turn back and hook back along the NE Coast.

Again...read the discussion I posted above from their morning discussion...

Now...that could be OBX and not Long Island... 

but....hard to say right now as we are talking models

and storms yet have yet to form..

Easy $ is it goes out to sea... but we will see..

Besos Bobbi

Ps..on the road some where in Mary Land. If you are anywhere near Florida..

Enjoy the rock and roll ... pop up storms that will form and watch

the Invest dance on the radar off shore :)

Where Oh Where Will TD#1 (maybe Arthur) Go? Is 2014 a lot like 2012 & 2004??

It looks kind of crabby this morning. When it looks less crabby and fills in on all sides we will have either a strong Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Arthur. If it moves in over the Treasure Coast it should come in as TD#1 or barely there Arthur. If it sits out there a bit it will be a stronger system as it is over warm water and moving south towards even warmer water. Officially its a slow drift, but its more like a train passing a station and an announcer going "Gate 2.. um... Gate 3... um Gate 4"

Remember for now it's an Invest that has a 70% chance of developing in the next 5 days despite the current Orange Circle. The NHC is trying out a new format this year. They are very open to feedback. In fact they are pretty much begging for it so please........give them your feedback. Their aim is to make their page as easy to understand as possible.

Here is their page:

Here is the link for feedback. Please...give them your feedback. How often do you get a chance to give a government agency your thoughts??

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=gtwo

Discussion out of the NWS Melbourne, FL is one of the best the NWS has to offer and seeing as the strongest weather is out their window to the ENE it's worth reading. Highlights are below.

"CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH

OF LONG ISLAND NY STRETCHES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS LOCATED WELL
EAST (230 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE) OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. REFER TO THE LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK...ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS STARTING APPROX 2AM...FOR
MORE INFO.

THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND OUR OFFSHORE WATERS MOVING SOUTH WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN COVERAGE.

A LONG RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO MOVING SOUTH
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE GULF STREAM HAS ALREADY HELPED TO
DESTABILIZE THE LOWEST LAYERS.

UPDATE...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH SHOULD KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHEAST FOR THE
INTERIOR...ORLANDO WEST...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY WOULD BE THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON."

Breezy day at the Beach there... wish I was there. But, I am here packing to go to New York for 2 weddings and some good quality time with my kids there. I'll be in Crown Heights often but... staying out on the Bay in Bayswater ;) and would really like one of those north bound solutions to happen... time will tell. There are a lot of suggestions more than solutions right now. When it forms... the solutions will be more obvious.

Note it is possible for it to move onto the Treasure Coast and then whoosh...off the Treasure Coast and move up towards OBX and Virginia beyond that... or out to sea. Too soon to tell.

I'll take the red line on this one..thought I wouldn't put money on it as I only bet on sure things and this whole system is far from a sure thing just yet. Sure it IS going to cause trouble for someone soon...  By the way Surfs Up along the coast...

There are so many options. It's like walking into a big casino in Vegas and being blinded by the lights, sounds and noise... or being way too drunk at a Miami Dolphins Game and singing "Canes Are Dynomite"  (think on that a bit)

The reason it has been slow to develop is because there is some dry air and obvious a drop of shear from the North as the stronger storms keep blowing away from the center of the system.

Note the reason it is moving towards the South is the High Pressure is moving down..digging towards the South pushing it along like it's driftwood in the Gulf stream.



Note...

See the outline of the High.. pushing it to the South and possibly a bit SSE...

I like to leave the model discussion to all the young weather mets and students who are enthralled with the models. My specialty is climo and a good knowledge of hurricane history and ... patterns. I love the 12 Hour Water Vapor Loop from Unisys as it's easy for people to compare and contrast things. Loops are wonderful. I look them all day long. But, sometimes you get a little dizzy with all those close in loops. 

Two pictures. 

12 Hours ago on the LEFT... Current on the RIGHT... Side By Side. These 2 pictures tell the story as simply as possible.

Really a matter of how low that high goes and how fast the system over the Mid west (see white clouds..near Kansas Iowa and Arkansas...) moves East and..how far south that system digs.. If the steering currents get locked in and Arthur dances a bit off the coast or loops back up towards the North and eventually NE.

Note the weather is acting more like July than June and fronts are not too reliable this time of year.. 

I've mentioned this to a few people. It's been bothering me that this set up reminds me of 2012 when the trees were blooming way too soon.  I posted about it on June 1st, 2012.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2012/05/tropical-update-on-twc-hurricane-season.html

Note 2012 brought us Beryl, which I drove through actually... intense storms all in all.

Beryl was 2012... there was talk of an El Nino then too...

Look familiar?

It's been said over and over this year that the "home grown" "close in" areas off the SE need to be watched as they are prime real estate this season for formation or development. For example a tropical wave could wander across the ocean and not really blow up until it's further in close to the coast. 2004 has been mentioned as a similar year.. Frances, Jeanne.. 2012 brought us Hurricane Sandy. Better hope that El Nino guy shows up fast and doesn't sit around dreaming on all the things he can do if he ever gets up off the porch. Right now the El Nino of 2014 is like a lazy ole hound dog that isn't ready to move his muscles ...Tho honestly if you were a hound dog out by the cement pond why would you get up and go anywhere? Sitting there dreaming I suppose of the old days in Cactus Creek or where ever they were before they picked up and moved to Beverly...

One last visual. My mother kept her art skills to herself and I'll leave the computer graphic skills to the men in my life... see the RED JAGGED line... if this season plays out as the experts believe it will only the storms to the left of the Red Jagged Line would develop. CLOSE IN... note when storms form close in tropical troubles mutliply.

2004

2012

\

Here's a song from the A girl.. Alanis for Arthur to think on...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJsk8zNaAoQ


I'll update tonight when we have more information. If Invest 91L winks a bit more recon will go in other wise they will table it for tomorrow morning as... he's really easy to see on the long range radar ;)

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. yeah... in a mood today...

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/cities/daytonabeach.htm
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mlb

Seriously did you think I was going to show an Arthur Murray Dance studio video? If so you don't know me...

Will Invest 91L become Tropical Storm Arthur? Most likely...

Keeping this short tonight as the hurricane hunters aka "Recon" go in tomorrow & we should know more.

The planes = better data. 

Short and sweet.

The first morning visible will say much though...

Yes we have Xray vision with sats now days but...nothing like seeing something up close and personal with your own eyes. The first morning visible is as close as it gets until the recon goes in..

Things to remember.

1) It's over very warm water...way above the 80 degree mark. Some of the water it will sit over is up to 85 degrees making this feel more like a mid July system than an end of June one.

2) There is a high aloft. IF it can't get it's act together with a high aloft there is no hope ...

3)  Light shear... no strong winds to blow it apart. 

Negatives?

Some dry air and a high to it's north is stopping it from going anywhere. Then again that keeps it over warm waters off the coast of FL and GA with even warmer water over the Gulf Stream. 

Where would it go? Everyone is guessing on Twitter, but reality is... it's going to dawdle, loop and dance a bit off the coast of the FL/GA line just south of the Carolina beaches. Then it will swing back to the NE or N or NW. May I add here it is ENTIRELY POSSIBLE the tracks will look different in a day or so. It could go in to the south of the current track if the high is stronger and/or depending on the next front that moves down and to the East. That front aka trof could pull it towards land or carry it away. Look for OBX to be in play depending on timing...   Often...systems like this go out to sea. Upwelling could be a problem at some point if it sits to long. 

True Spaghetti Models it seems... 

www.spaghettimodels.com is a good site to go to ;)

That's why it's called what it is... duh

For now an Orange circle today.. Red circle tomorrow.

For some of you today is tomorrow.. 

I'll post later Sunday morning after there is more data and a good morning visible.

Easy to find...

Up close for all you weather stalkers using night vision:

Sliding south... check out the loop.

Note the dot above in the loop below. 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. Back on the East Coast from Seattle in time it seems for tropical development!

See I really was there.. that's me... not so up close and personal ;)

Once & Future Tropical Storm Arthur... Still watching the SE Low

Short update this evening with regard to the now 10% chance of tropical development off the SE Coast.

I'm going to highlight the discussion out of the NWS in Wilmington, NC that is one of the closest places to where this "system" may come off of land into the water. Also, they do one heck of a job with their forecast discussion.

".SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...REMAINS OF A FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA
ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER OF THE 2 DAYS WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO THE SPECTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WHILE THE CHANCE THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS LOW IT WILL ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING. BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WHILE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT SAT...IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SUN...AS WILL THE
SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT DUE THE BUILD RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WEAKER SIDE...LESSENING
THE WIND/HAIL THREAT. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 5 MPH AND POSSIBLY LESS. DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AND DEEP WARM LAYER(FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 15K FT)
MEAN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
FLOODING."

Notice their concern on localized flooding. A real concerned even if this system does not get a name. I think it's possible "something" spins up fast and then sits around possibly looping back and forth off shore until the drama is ready to play out. That means it may drift SE a bit towards SC and the Florida/GA line and then back up towards the Outer Banks or places north.. or it may do nothing but rain.

Charleston NWS says a bit more on their thoughts as to what does or doesn't happen.. high pressure builds in and it slowly falls apart. Hmnnn

"A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA AND PASS

OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN SHIFT OVER THE AREA MIDWEEK...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK."

Notice they both are NWS offices, but they do their own discussion.

SAT-SUN...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) WL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE INITIALLY OFF THE GA/SC COAST SAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO OFF OF THE NE FLORIDA EAST COAST SUN.

You see all the NWS offices have one thing in common. They are watching the weather for their particular area. The NHC watches the tropics for everyone and they do get the bottom line when and if advisories begin on the A storm.. be it this system or the next one.

A great place to get up to the minute information is Twitter. You might want to bookmark them.. they do a great job.

@NWSWilmingtonNC

Earlier post showed what needed to be shown.

And, lastly may I say Jim Cantore as always does the best tropical updates. Not to say the official one isn't good, but listening to him discuss the satellite loops on air is more fun than than watching him at the beach. You always learn so much. His emphasis this afternoon on the light shear that would enhance conditions for development of a system if one gets going. That is what I said this morning. The MAIN reason we are watching this system is that the conditions down the line due to light shear give this system that could become Arthur a sweet spot to sit and spin a bit.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... check out my last post for more thoughts and some good song links. Any surfers or just plain old weather lovers may want to check out this link for a good look at the once and future possible Arthur from the perspective of a surfer.

http://dabuh.com/latest-possible-homegrown-development-east-ne-florida/

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/06/iffy-maybe-system-forming-off-se-coast.html

Great Book to read... heavy reading but excellent look at history.
http://www.amazon.com/Once-Future-Terence-Hanbury-White/dp/0441627404

IFFY Maybe... System forming off the SE Coast.. Where's Arthur?

There is a small purple dot in the Western Atlantic off the SE Coast that shows a small possibility of tropical development.

No that wasn't moonlight or magnolias over Alabama yesterday it was an East bound Low Pressure System headed out towards the Atlantic that might mix it up with some warm tropical moisture that has already been lingering way too long near a stalled out frontal boundary. That my friends is what many a system is made of when we talk on "close in tropical development" and this is about as close in as it gets considering it's currently cruising East over the Carolinas...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAbCxSWhhEw


http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=clt

Ironically there isn't much to see this morning, but as the heating of the day goes on and on...it will fire up again. Last night we had a rocking and rolling thunderstorm around 2AM in Raleigh. Nice to see the sky light up (or what I could see through the pines...) but no rain, nada...nothing.... zippo. Zilch.

There is a 0% yellow circle somewhere over South Carolina. Zero. It really isn't a zero as much as a "HEADS UP" that something might form soon in this here general area... so keep it in mind when you go out Saturday or Sunday on your pre-July 4th weekend boat trip. It's the same way we watch tropical waves over Africa before they rain on the beaches of the Cape Verde Islands. Isn't it comforting to know there are weather stalkers out there somewhere watching even while you sleep...for something...somewhere to twist and turn?

You see the tricky part of reading these maps from the NHC is you have to read the small, fine print. Formation chance through 5 days...low...20... percent. You don't see me now.. but you might see me tomorrow.

So... keep watching.

Another cool map that Mike has up on www.spaghettimodels.com shows potential tropical formation. It's these models that show us what we can't see with our eyes when looking at the radar. So...the 20% chance is based on models, note the CYA by the TWC on that one.  In reality forecasters who really know their climo and know how to apply it to the current weather patterns can look at the sats and see without the models there is something to watch ............especially as an old frontal boundary (and I do mean old) is sitting there waiting for some young thing to come along and get it going.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GStCtA2ErcQ



This is an odd year. We've had late season flooding in Minnesota and the Mississippi River is approaching record heights in some places. We had more twisters in California and the Carolinas than Oklahoma.

Seems like the only thing in Oklahoma twisting this year is the girls doing country line dancing and that's good because Lord knows they need time to clean up the mess from last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bF-YE_zFBzI


So... keep watching as this could develop once it hits the water and connects with what is already there in an area that is favorable for development with VERY LIGHT WIND SHEAR. That means without the strong winds aloft that are present in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean ...something could form HERE.

Note... we have been running a few weeks ahead of the game this year. Ask around I've heard it everywhere from Carolina to Florida to Seattle and that's a lot of "wheres" as flowers are blooming early. June bugs came out in May. Azaleas are competing with Magnolias in Wilmington. In Seattle they did not have their typical Junary weather as it was flirting with the 80s when I was there and the sky was blue and beautiful. So, let's treat this end of June as if it was about July 10th. That's my feeling.

I should be back later today to update this if it needs updating. For now.. it's a watch and wait and trust me if you take the lid off the pot the water will eventually boil.

Besos Bobbi
Ps. I'll say it again. No early June system is a sign of an average season not a slow one. Often the seasons with the early storms burn out fast. Average seasons are meant to last into the summer and early Fall. Keep watching... things are going to heat up real soon.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKpQRjj_WbU

Twisters & Floods. Do you live in a Flood Plain? Find out...

Not much going on today in the tropics. A cluster of storms in the BOC. A lot of shear overhead so unless it sits and spins up a bit and does something it most likely will sit and pulse up.. pulse down. Think of a Nutribullet. The only safe place for it right now it to stay where it is...

As for me I'm leaving today to go back to Carolina. It's so hard to say goodbye to everyone here in Seattle and the city itself. I've always loved my kids... my now I love Seattle. There is just so much to love here. From the top of the Space Needle that reigns over this busy technological city to the ferry that goes out to Bainbridge Island...and back....

Somehow it reminds me of watching the sunset in Key West over Sunset Island. It's truly one of those spots where nature shines down and high lights all the beauty the area has to offer. Some places have it.. some don't. Seattle has "it" and I love it. But it's so far away from the tropics.

My son and I took a drive last night around Ballard and looked at the boats tied up in the water..in the marina.. floating in the darkness. You know you are not in the tropics when you see salmon boats from Alaska.

But oh then there are the sailboats on Lake Union...got to love a city built around the water..

As for the weather... this morning the highlight is on tornadoes and floods in the messy Midwest.

I said earlier in the year that I thought this Spring would be one where flooding would be a problem. Spring going into summer and there are still towns dealing with floods. Again, it's like surgery. It's minor surgery when it's someone else and it's major surgery when it's yours. It's major flooding if you live in Delano, Minnesota today...

People often forget they live in a flood plain. The city of Delano being featured on the news for flooding is part of a flood plain. Usually it does not flood. When it does... it's a huge, mess.

I'll be back in the Hurricane Zone tomorrow... til then nothing is happening except the weather where ever you are so ... sit back, relax and enjoy it! If you live in an area where hurricanes or flooding is prone to happen... check out your local hazards, make a plan... and then relax.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... Remember Kinston, NC was in a flood plain and Hurricane Floyd was a not so gentle reminder...

http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/3807

Tropics on Simmer

Let's talk tropics... before anything else.
1. Large, huge high locked in place.
2. Waves over Africa coming off near Senegal..
3. Caribbean iffy...
4. Off of OBX is weather..

Any purple cluster in the Atlantic is worth noting because

a) it's my favorite color purple ;)

b) there is some small possibility ..ish

Basically tropics this week are on simmer. What that means is the "heat is on" but the soup ain't ready yet...

And...the heat is really on. The high is in place. The Cape Verde Season is firing off waves that are higher than normal and nicer than normal.. alas the SAL is as normal and sucking the moisture out of them faster than you can say "June too soon"

Where would they go IF they formed? Storms trace the high...

Taking graphics from a friend online and highlighting the path any Atlantic system would take..

http://dabuh.com/update-possible-bump-coming-gulf-mexico/
Love his site ;)

 You can see what's over Africa as I type this far away in Seattle, Washington..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/images/irmet7kml.GIF

So for now it's happy cruising weather in the Caribbean. Note...something keeps trying to look like it wants to form and yet.. it doesn't. Until the shear straight out of the North relaxes...nothing is forming. The strength of the summer this week and if it will be a late summer or a short summer with an early winter is a big subject being discussed and argued currently by mets in the US. Many say we are ahead of schedule climo wise.. Something to think on...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

On the other side of Planet Earth...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ridge

So there is an area up here in the mountains called "Hurricane Ridge" so of course I asked the sea captain of the "Ice Cream Boat Cruise" in Lake Union why it was called "Hurricane Ridge" if there are no hurricanes here. I thought perhaps some gold miner who left New Orleans named it that...

His response was logical and correct. Hurricane is not just the name for a storm, but a statement of wind speed. I still think some Southerner was involved but yes he is right. His ship is the "Fremont Avenue" but the kids all call it the Ice Cream Cruise as it is loaded up with an Ice Cream cooler. They also serve hot Chai Tea which when it's 60 degrees works for me ;)

More on this cruise later, but if you ever get to Seattle it's definitely worth the ride. Fun man, great little boat and nice friendly people on board.

http://www.seattleferryservice.com/freemont-sunday-ice-cream-cruise/

My grand kids loved it.

Benny played Captain and Bella, who is love with the seaplanes here, pointed out the seaplane landing...every time she saw one... "look, look seaplane!!!" Understand this happens often as they are staying in those apartments that are clustered just above the lake...where the seaplanes land.

I loved the houseboats though I liked this one more than the infamous one. The Captain said they probably chose "that houseboat" as it has a wide big porch that allowed for easier filming. Makes sense... Either way I like this one more and it's beautiful boat docked up nearby.

How could you not love this place?

Be back in a bit... doing a lot today. 

They are very active kids (my son and daughter-in-law) and they are uber keeping me busy..

Besos Bobbi

Ps... again there is a cluster of weather off of OBX and that is typical for this time of year. Typical, not tropical but worth noting as early season storms often form off at the end of stalled out frontal boundaries.N

PPS.. no not playing songs from Sleepless in Seattle. I refuse. After that stupid song playing as I walked into the gift shop in the Aquarium.. I am not whistling any movie tunes any time soon...    :P

Got things to do today... up in the sky, down on the ground... busy day... chow ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7khQNR7s1Ho&feature=kp