Tropical Depression #1 Forms... in time to mess up July 4th at the beach... UP THE EAST COAST..

The problem with TD #1 at the present time is that it puts all of the East Coast in the cone for the July 4th Weekend. TD #1 AKA soon to be Tropical Storm Arthur will most likely stay off shore for part of it's trip up the Eastern Seaboard. But, until we know for sure ... the extended 5 Day Cone is a killer for Beach Cities economies on their biggest day of Summer.

The reason I say this is because many of the towns inside the left side of the cone rely on a good July 4th Holiday to tide them over well into the lean season of Fall and Winter. Summertime in that part of the world is 3 months, 4 or 5 if you get lucky...  then things go back to being quiet and sleepy days and nights where only the locals hang out. July 4th is the biggest weekend of the summer and for many towns it is now in danger of being a no show where only the storm chasers and surfers go..

Look at this graphic that shows where Tropical Storm Winds "could" be felt vs the cone above. Some have a lower chance of feeling TS winds, some higher. But...if your city falls inside this cone you have a better chance of seeing strong winds than winning the lotto on that scratch off you just bought at the gas station. Just saying... think on that for a minute.

This chart on www.spaghettimodels.com shows that MOST LIKELY Arthur will stay off shore.. well in most places it will. But, for now it's a crap shoot how far West Arthur may bobble and how many cities may feel more than strong surf from this storm.

For now.. it ain't much to look at. Poorly put together and dry air plaguing parts of this storm... but in a few days conditions improve and he goes from being a weak Tropical Depression to a Hurricane. Some have even insisted that he could become a Category 2 storm down the road.

Posting what we jokingly call "the juice loop" for it's bright orange color.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Look at that roll it forms off the East Coast of Florida.

So... we will wait for tonight's model runs that will have the data from today's flight into the Tropical Depression figured into the next Discussion from the NHC at 5 AM. Also, we will see what the Tropical Depression does itself vs what the models say it might do. Stay tuned.

For  now... this is from the link that gives percentages for possibilities. Note... everywhere from the coast of North Florida to Long Island (including New York and Newark) and Nova Scotia are in it. By Thursday this cone will have narrowed and we will have "more better" data and a more exact track for Tropical Storm Arthur.

If you live in this cone..... think on getting any supplies you may need and making alternative plans for July 4h weekend. If and when the storm passes you buy... PLEASE go to your local beach town and BUY some ice cream, food... resort clothes and any tee shirts that say "I survived Tropical Storm Arthur" and or "Hurricane Arthur" or... I LOVE THE USA...

Besos Bobbi

Ps... yes it begins... See the list of cities below and learn how to use this feature the NHC puts up on their advisory every 6 hours. If they think it's worth posting, I think it's worth learning how to use. Many will tell you it's meaningless... (do you really think the NHC would post something meaningless??) and or they haven't been around as long as I have to see its real value.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/010301.shtml?

Tropical Depression ONE Wind Speed Probabilities Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   US Watch/Warning   000 FONT11 KNHC 010301 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 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