Where Oh Where Will TD#1 (maybe Arthur) Go? Is 2014 a lot like 2012 & 2004??

It looks kind of crabby this morning. When it looks less crabby and fills in on all sides we will have either a strong Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Arthur. If it moves in over the Treasure Coast it should come in as TD#1 or barely there Arthur. If it sits out there a bit it will be a stronger system as it is over warm water and moving south towards even warmer water. Officially its a slow drift, but its more like a train passing a station and an announcer going "Gate 2.. um... Gate 3... um Gate 4"

Remember for now it's an Invest that has a 70% chance of developing in the next 5 days despite the current Orange Circle. The NHC is trying out a new format this year. They are very open to feedback. In fact they are pretty much begging for it so please........give them your feedback. Their aim is to make their page as easy to understand as possible.

Here is their page:

Here is the link for feedback. Please...give them your feedback. How often do you get a chance to give a government agency your thoughts??

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=gtwo

Discussion out of the NWS Melbourne, FL is one of the best the NWS has to offer and seeing as the strongest weather is out their window to the ENE it's worth reading. Highlights are below.

"CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH

OF LONG ISLAND NY STRETCHES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS LOCATED WELL
EAST (230 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE) OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. REFER TO THE LATEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK...ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS STARTING APPROX 2AM...FOR
MORE INFO.

THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND OUR OFFSHORE WATERS MOVING SOUTH WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN COVERAGE.

A LONG RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO MOVING SOUTH
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE GULF STREAM HAS ALREADY HELPED TO
DESTABILIZE THE LOWEST LAYERS.

UPDATE...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH SHOULD KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHEAST FOR THE
INTERIOR...ORLANDO WEST...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY WOULD BE THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON."

Breezy day at the Beach there... wish I was there. But, I am here packing to go to New York for 2 weddings and some good quality time with my kids there. I'll be in Crown Heights often but... staying out on the Bay in Bayswater ;) and would really like one of those north bound solutions to happen... time will tell. There are a lot of suggestions more than solutions right now. When it forms... the solutions will be more obvious.

Note it is possible for it to move onto the Treasure Coast and then whoosh...off the Treasure Coast and move up towards OBX and Virginia beyond that... or out to sea. Too soon to tell.

I'll take the red line on this one..thought I wouldn't put money on it as I only bet on sure things and this whole system is far from a sure thing just yet. Sure it IS going to cause trouble for someone soon...  By the way Surfs Up along the coast...

There are so many options. It's like walking into a big casino in Vegas and being blinded by the lights, sounds and noise... or being way too drunk at a Miami Dolphins Game and singing "Canes Are Dynomite"  (think on that a bit)

The reason it has been slow to develop is because there is some dry air and obvious a drop of shear from the North as the stronger storms keep blowing away from the center of the system.

Note the reason it is moving towards the South is the High Pressure is moving down..digging towards the South pushing it along like it's driftwood in the Gulf stream.



Note...

See the outline of the High.. pushing it to the South and possibly a bit SSE...

I like to leave the model discussion to all the young weather mets and students who are enthralled with the models. My specialty is climo and a good knowledge of hurricane history and ... patterns. I love the 12 Hour Water Vapor Loop from Unisys as it's easy for people to compare and contrast things. Loops are wonderful. I look them all day long. But, sometimes you get a little dizzy with all those close in loops. 

Two pictures. 

12 Hours ago on the LEFT... Current on the RIGHT... Side By Side. These 2 pictures tell the story as simply as possible.

Really a matter of how low that high goes and how fast the system over the Mid west (see white clouds..near Kansas Iowa and Arkansas...) moves East and..how far south that system digs.. If the steering currents get locked in and Arthur dances a bit off the coast or loops back up towards the North and eventually NE.

Note the weather is acting more like July than June and fronts are not too reliable this time of year.. 

I've mentioned this to a few people. It's been bothering me that this set up reminds me of 2012 when the trees were blooming way too soon.  I posted about it on June 1st, 2012.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2012/05/tropical-update-on-twc-hurricane-season.html

Note 2012 brought us Beryl, which I drove through actually... intense storms all in all.

Beryl was 2012... there was talk of an El Nino then too...

Look familiar?

It's been said over and over this year that the "home grown" "close in" areas off the SE need to be watched as they are prime real estate this season for formation or development. For example a tropical wave could wander across the ocean and not really blow up until it's further in close to the coast. 2004 has been mentioned as a similar year.. Frances, Jeanne.. 2012 brought us Hurricane Sandy. Better hope that El Nino guy shows up fast and doesn't sit around dreaming on all the things he can do if he ever gets up off the porch. Right now the El Nino of 2014 is like a lazy ole hound dog that isn't ready to move his muscles ...Tho honestly if you were a hound dog out by the cement pond why would you get up and go anywhere? Sitting there dreaming I suppose of the old days in Cactus Creek or where ever they were before they picked up and moved to Beverly...

One last visual. My mother kept her art skills to herself and I'll leave the computer graphic skills to the men in my life... see the RED JAGGED line... if this season plays out as the experts believe it will only the storms to the left of the Red Jagged Line would develop. CLOSE IN... note when storms form close in tropical troubles mutliply.

2004

2012

\

Here's a song from the A girl.. Alanis for Arthur to think on...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJsk8zNaAoQ


I'll update tonight when we have more information. If Invest 91L winks a bit more recon will go in other wise they will table it for tomorrow morning as... he's really easy to see on the long range radar ;)

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. yeah... in a mood today...

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/cities/daytonabeach.htm
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mlb

Seriously did you think I was going to show an Arthur Murray Dance studio video? If so you don't know me...